Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Suns vs. Warriors- This game boasts the highest total on the night at 226 with a spread of 18 points. The spread is of serious concern here because the Warrior stars could face sitting most of the 4th quarter. Stephen Curry looked to tweak his ankle last night, but still put up 49.75 DKFP. If he is a go tonight I have him projected at 50+ DKFP with a usage rate of 36.1. The Suns have been riding Alex Len, who recently had back to back 50 DKFP games. He was limited to 23 DKFP last game due to another streaking Center, Nikola Jokic. Len should right the ship tonight and is projected at 30+ DKFP.
LOW O/U – Pacers vs. Mavericks- The total in the lowest scoring game of the night is 204.5 with a 1 point spread. I like this game a lot, due to the spread. Paul George has cooled a little in the latter part of the season, but still has a usage rate of 29.1. He is projected at 40 DKFP tonight and has a great matchup. Old man Dirk Nowitzki put up 46 DKFP the last game. Dirk is seeing 32 minutes a game and has a usage rate of 24.6. I think he will produce about 35 DKFP tonight.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
|Oklahoma City||101.20||San Antonio||97.20||99.20|
HIGH PACE – Rockets vs. Hornets – The Suns/Warriors game is the highest pace game of the night. The Rockets/Hornets game is 2nd with a projected game pace of 99. James Harden is projected at 50 DKFP and has a usage rate of 33. He will want to put on a show tonight after a lackluster 43 DKFP performance last night. Kemba Walker has excelled at home over his career putting up 22.7 ppg. This is compared to 19 ppg away. Walker also disappointed last night with a 30 DKFP performance last night. He should see over 35 minutes tonight and a DKFP total of 40+.
LOW PACE – Heat vs. Raptors- The projected game pace in this one is 95. With Chris Bosh sidelined the Heat have been riding Hassan Whiteside. Whiteside has been great with his last 4 games producing 45+ DKFP. He should play 30+ minutes tonight and is projected at 40+, ride the Whiteside train while it stays hot. The Raptors have been all Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan this season. Lowry is seeing 39 minutes a game and has consistently produced over 40+ DKFP all season. He has a tougher matchup tonight against Dragic, but he should still hit value.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Stephen Curry (GSW) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 29th against opposing PGs. The Suns are also giving up 46 DKFP a game to the position. Steph is the best player in the NBA at the moment and has a usage rate of 36. If the game stays close he should easily see 50+ DKFP.
WORST – Kyle Lowry (TOR) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Lowry had a letdown game against Atlanta during his last outing, only putting up 30 DKFP. He will want to show he is an elite PG again tonight and should use his 39 mpg to give us 40+ DKFP tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Klay Thompson (GSW) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. Klay put up 37 real points and 43 DKFP last game against Portland. He usually worries me due to his fantasy scoring being so real scoring dependant. I have him projected at 30+ tonight and think he reaches that total easily.
WORST – Andre Roberson (Questionable) (OKC) vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. Roberson actually left the last game due to an ankle tweak. He has a usage rate of 9.9 and really shouldn’t be on anyone’s radar.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Harrison Barnes (GSW) vs. Phoenix Suns The Suns are ranked 27th against opposing SFs. Barnes could be a sneaky play due to the potential blowout. He has a usage rate of 15 and is averaging 29 mpg. With all that said, don’t look at his last 5 games if you are thinking about taking a chance on Barnes tonight.
WORST – Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Durant will have to see a lot of Kawhi Leonard tonight. Unfortunately, Kawhi doesn’t scare me as much in this matchup. KD has an insane usage rate of 32 and is half of the Thunder’s scoring. I think he still puts up 40+ DKFP tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Marvin Williams (CHA) vs. Houston Rockets – The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Marvin is averaging 30 DKFP over his last 3 games. He is projected at 30 DKFP tonight and it wouldn’t surprise me if he saw 35+ due to matchup alone.
WORST – Serge Ibaka (OKC) vs. San Antonio Spurs – The Spurs are ranked 4th against opposing PFs. Ibaka has been a huge disappointment for me this season. He is still averaging 35 mpg, but is seeing a lower usage rate this season of 17. I think he comes in undervalue tonight at about 25 DKFP.
TARGET – Andre Drummond (DET) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. My Hornets gave Drummond all he could handle last night, limiting him to 17.25 DKFP. He should definitely right the ship tonight and ride his usage rating of 26 to 50 DKFP.
AVOID – Al Horford (ATL) vs. Memphis Grizzlies – Memphis is ranked 2nd this season against opposing Cs, but a lot of this is due to Marc Gasol (who is out for the season). Horford will have an easier matchup tonight against Jamychal Green. Horford will see about 33 minutes tonight and should easily put up 30+ DKFP.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
James Harden ($10,600)- Harden cooled off in a tough matchup last night, only producing 43.25 DKFP. Tonight he gets the Charlotte Hornets and a better DvP matchup. He is seeing an average of 38 minutes per game and has a usage rate of 28.9. I have him projected at 45+ DKFP tonight and wouldn’t be surprised if he dropped a 50 burger.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Dewayne Dedmon ($3,000) – From the D-League to the starting lineup, Dedmon has put up value in his last 2 games. He has a great matchup tonight against Portland and should see about 20 minutes. If NIkola Vucevic (Doubtful) sits then Dedmon becomes an even better play. He is the perfect storm for a studs and duds lineup tonight.
Dud of the Night
Brandon Knight ($6,600) – Over 6K for a guy that is coming of a 21 game absence? I am going to have to pass. I feel like Knight will be limited tonight and see about 25 minutes. His usage rate will be high while on court, but Phoenix has already committed to molding Booker and Len. It is yet to be seen how this will truly affect Knight when he takes the court for 30+ minutes.
- DKFP = DraftKings Fantasy Points