Game Flow Notes

Vegas Lines

HIGH O/U Trail Blazers vs. Warriors – This game should be full of fireworks with a total of 225 and a -13 spread. The Trail Blazers will lean heavily on Damian Lillard who has been phenomenal this season. Lillard has a usage rate of 28% and is averaging over 40 DraftKings fantasy points per game. In this type of matchup it wouldn’t surprise me to see him post a 50 burger. Stephen Curry is another elite play on the evening. Curry is averaging 48 DKFPPG and should exceed that by 12 FP tonight.

“…he is quietly averaging 52.65 DK points in March.”

LOW O/UPistons vs. Hornets- The total in this game is 200.5 with a -4 spread. This is a very important conference game for both teams as it will certainly affect the playoff race. Kemba Walker makes for a sneaky play tonight as he is quietly averaging 52.65 DK points in March. The Pistons should lean on Andre Drummond and his 24.8 usage rate. I have him projected at close to 40 DKFP tonight.

Pace of Play

Away TeamAway PaceHome TeamHome PaceAvg Pace
Detroit99.40Charlotte99.8099.60
Brooklyn98.10Philadelphia101.7099.90
Houston102.00Boston102.80102.40
Miami97.00Chicago101.3099.15
New Orleans100.30Memphis97.2098.75
Minnesota99.00Oklahoma City101.20100.10
Washington101.20Utah95.7098.45
Orlando100.00Sacramento104.20102.10
Portland99.20Golden State104.10101.65
New York97.50L.A.Clippers100.3098.90

HIGH PACE Rockets vs. Celtics – The projected game pace in this one is 102.4. The Rockets will rely heavily on James Harden and his 27.6% usage rating. He is averaging over 45 DKFP a game and should come closer to 50 DKFP tonight. It will be interesting to see who leads the charge for the Celtics, but Isaiah Thomas should build on his average of 35+ DKFP a game.

LOW PACE Wizards vs. Jazz- The projected game total in this one is 98.45 and the slowest on the night. The Wizards will be looking to John Wall to replicate his 55 and 53 DKFP performance over the last two games. The Jazz will look to their big men Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert, who have both averaged over 30+ DKFPPG. They should both hit value tonight.

Injury Watch

This is not a comprehensive list of injuries. Be sure to follow news throughout the day for the latest updates.

StatusPlayer
OutMario Chalmers, DeMarcus Cousins (SAC), Elfrid Payton (ORL), Lance Thomas (NYK), Arron Afflalo (NYK), Jimmy Butler (CHI), Dion Waiters (OKC), Jahlil Okafor (PHI)
DoubtfulMike Conley (MEM), Chris Andersen (MEM), Nikola Vucevic (ORL), Ben McLemore (SAC), Norris Cole (NO)
QuestionableKelly Olynyk (BOS), Nemanja Bjelica (MIN), Dioin Waiters (OKC), Norris Cole (NO), Zach Randolph (MEM), Rodney Hood (UTA), Arron Afflalo (NYK), Luc Mbah a Moute (LAC), Derrick Rose (CHI)
ProbableBrook Lopez (BKN), Zach LaVine (MIN), Bradley Beal (WAS), Marco Belinelli (SAC), J.J. Redick (LAC)


Defense vs. Position

Point Guard Matchups

BEST Ish Smith (PHI) vs. Brooklyn Nets- The Nets are ranked 28th against opposing PGs. Ish is seeing 30+ minutes of court time and averaging 30+ DKFP a game. He has also hit value in the last 7 games. He is projected at 40 DK points and may even exceed this total on the evening.

WORSTPatrick Beverley (ATL) vs. Boston Celtics- Beverley rewarded us with a 35 DKFP performance during his last game. He will fact the 1st ranked team against opposing PGs tonight. He has a low usage rate of 13.7% and will have to work to reach the 20 DKFP threshold tonight.


More NBA Content for Friday

Levitan's LeverageCheat SheetGame Breakdowns
Player TargetsTop 5's by PositionTournament Plays


Shooting Guard Matchups

BEST Victor Oladipo (ORL) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are giving up 22 points to SGs this season and are ranked 29th in the league. Oladipo is averaging 33 minutes of court time and has hovered around the 40 DKFP total over the last two. He will see a spike in usage to about 21% with Nikola Vucevic sidelined. I have him projected at 40 DKFP tonight.

WORST E’Twaun Moore (CHI) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 3rd against opposing SGs and this is a homecoming for Dwyane Wade. Surprisingly, Moore put up 38 DKFP against San Antonio last night. With Jimmy Butler sidelined by injury Moore should see a usage rate of about 16. I have him projected at 20 DKFP on the evening.

Benny Ricciardi thinks it’s the perfect storm for Rudy Gay tonight. Find out why in the NBA Targets


Small Forward Matchups

BEST Jae Crowder (BOS) vs. Houston Rockets Trevor Ariza has had a tough time guarding SFs all season and he earned his 30th ranking for the Rockets. Crowder has consistently averaged 25-30 DKFP all season. He has a usage rate of 19.3, which will be just enough for him to post a projected 30+ DKFP tonight.

WORSTOtto Porter (WAS) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SFs. Porter hasn’t posted over 17 DKFP in the last 4 games. During the early part of the season he was averaging 25 DKFP a game, but he is since trending down at a quick pace.


Power Forward Matchups

BEST Amir Johnson (BOS) vs. Houston Rockets – The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. With that said, Johnson still doesn’t look like an intriguing PF play. He boasts a usage rate of 11 and has to work hard every night to reach his season average of 18 DKFP. The price is tempting due to matchup, but I only have him projected at 15 DKFP tonight.

WORSTMarkieff Morris (WAS) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs, thanks to the defensive play of Derrick Favors. Morris has seen an uptick in his usage due to his trade and is at a 23 usage rate. He is averaging 21 DKFP and should come in right around his average tonight.


Center Matchups

TARGET Brook Lopez (BKN) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are terrible, but they are especially bad at defending Cs and come in at 30th in the league. Brook is averaging 36 DKFP a game and is seeing a usage rate of 22%. With all of the injuries (and a trade) to the Nets it will be hard for Brook to see less than 30 minutes of court time tonight. He should crush his 43 DKFP projected value tonight.

AVOIDMarcin Gortat (WAS) vs. Utah Jazz – There is a theme here and it is that the Jazz are great against opposing big men. Rudy Gobert and crew are ranked 2nd against opposing Cs. Gortat has seen his usage rate drop about 4 points with the addition of Markieff Morris in Washington. He now has a usage rate of 15% and is only averaging 30 DKFP a game. I think he slightly misses the mark tonight and comes in right around his average.


Lineup Quick Hits

Superstar Worth Paying For

Kevin Durant ($10,500)- Kevin Durant has had 7 straight games posting over 55 DKFP. I have him projected at 60+ points and if he sees his full complement of 36 minutes tonight he will have no problem reaching this mark. He will be a staple in my lines tonight.

Save Big Bucks by Drafting

Kosta Koufos ($3,000) – Koufos should get the start tonight for a suspended DeMarcus Cousins. With Cousins out there will be a lot of DKFP to go around and Koufos should find about 25 of them. He will see a usage rate of about 15% and should easily reach value tonight.

Dud of the Night

Trevor Ariza ($6,200) – Ariza has one game on and one game off. Tonight looks to be his off night as the matchup is a lot tougher. Ariza is seeing over 35 minutes a game, but has a terrible usage rate of 13%. I just can’t get behind using him tonight.

  • DKFP = DraftKings Fantasy Points