Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Hawks vs. 76ers- The total for this game is 206.5 and is the highest scoring of the night. This game has a worrisome spread at -9 and could potentially get out of hand. I like Millsap in a bounce back game after a rough last outing. I also like where Ish comes in at tonight as he is the 76ers only true scorer.
LOW O/U – Jazz vs. Rockets- When the Rockets play we all typically think of fast pace and high scoring. However, check out who they are playing tonight….the Jazz. When anybody plays the Jazz they usually find themselves in the lowest scoring contests. The total for this game is 196.5. Obviously, The Beard is in play, but if you are looking for value look no further than Jeff Withey as he has crushed value.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Lakers vs. Kings- This game is without a total yet due to the amount of players facing injuries. Kobe is probable tonight which should add some extra offense to the Lakers. I love Boogie in this game and will have close to 100% exposure in cash games.
LOW PACE – Hawks vs. 76ers- This is extremely surprising to see one of the higher total games as one of the slowest pace. The projected game pace for this game is still over 100 at 100.5. Obviously the Hawks bigs are in play and I love Ish tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Isaiah Thomas vs. Derrick Rose- IT2 has a great matchup tonight and is a go. He faces D Rose and company who have struggled against opposing PGs. He should be a lock for value and has a great opportunity to exceed tonight.
AVOID – Patrick Beverley vs. Trey Burke – The Jazz are lockdown against PGs and are ranked 11th in the league. Bev is more of a defender than a scorer. I am staying away.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Kobe Bryant vs. Kings SG- Kobe is probable tonight. If he suits up he will have a great matchup against the Kings. The Kings have been crushed by SGs lately and should continue to struggle all season.
AVOID – Evan Turner vs. Jimmy Butler – I have rolled Evan out the past couple of nights as a value play while Avery Bradley sits. He gets an extremely tough matchup against Buckets tonight and should be avoided.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kent Bazemore vs. Robert Covington- Baze has been killing it lately and should continue tonight. The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing SFs and there doesn’t seem to be any light at the end of the tunnel.
AVOID – Trevor Ariza vs. Gordon Hayward Hayward is a great defender as is 5th in the league against SFs. Ariza has struggled this season and has a terrible matchup. I could see him hovering around value at a reduced price, but I can’t see him exceeding.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – DeMarcus Cousins vs. Larry Nance Jr. – Boogie down people, this pick really needs no write up!
AVOID – Nerlens Noel vs. Paul Millsap – Millsap is a decent defender and is in the top tier in the league. Noel struggles at the 4 and if he starts here tonight will have a tough matchup. I am all in on Boogie tonight.
TARGET – Al Horford vs. Jahlil Okafor This is definitely an Al Horford night tonight. He gets the weak frontcourt of the Hawks and has the ability to put up 35+ DK points.
AVOID – Jeff Withey vs. Dwight Howard- Don’t get me wrong, Withey is still a good value play tonight. However, the matchup is bad and Dwight may want to put on a show. I like Olynyk’s matchup better.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,300) – Boogie versus the Lakers….I would probably pay 20K in salary for this matchup. Cousins has put up over 60 DK points in his last two outings. If Rondo sits he will be tasked to take on even more of the offensive load. He is obviously the top play of the night.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Kelly Olynyk ($5,000) – I could easily put Jeff Withey back in this spot tonight, as he has been phenomenal as a starter, but Olynyk comes in just a little cheaper. Oly has a great matchup against the Bulls who struggle against opposing Cs. He is also getting most of the minutes now and should continue to as long as his play remains consistent.
Dud of the Night
Derrick Rose ($5,800) – D Rose has seen a huge drop in price over the last couple of weeks. Unfortunately, for us this price drop doesn’t matter. Pau and Buckets are carrying most of the offensive load for the Bulls and Rose has a tough matchup tonight.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Joakim Noah – Out, Willie Cauley-Stein – Doubtful