Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Rockets vs. Thunder – This game comes in at the highest total for the night with a whopping 221.5 projected total. The pace should be blazing fast which will bid well for the stars. Look for KD and Westy to put up major usage and a lot of points. For the Rockets this will be the Harden revenge show as he will look to light up his old team.
LOW O/U – Heat vs. Bucks – There they are again, the Bucks have made their way to the low scoring list. With a total of 191, we will be looking for other stat categories in this game. I like the two old guys in Miami (if Wade suits up). I also like Monroe for the Bucks as I foresee a lot of rebounds.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Magic vs. Celtics – The Celtics have been the highest paced Eastern conference team this year. This is a positive thing as the style of basketball between the Eastern and Western conference has been a lot different in years past. With a projected pace of 99.6, the Celtics should look to push the ball. IT2 is questionable, which means a lot of usage for Marcus Smart. I also like Vucevic for the Magic as he gets a decent matchup.
LOW PACE – Timberwolves vs. Jazz – And then there was the Jazz. The slowest pace team on the planet comes in with a 92.6 projected game pace tonight. With the injuries to the Wolves, I like Zach Lavine tonight. I also like Hayward and Gobert in what should be a positive value matchup.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Chris Paul vs. D’Angelo Russell – CP3 versus the Lakers, uh this needs no explanation. However, with Blake out his usage goes high sky and he always likes the opportunity to give the Lakers a drumming.
AVOID – Donald Sloan vs. Deron Williams – The Mavs aren’t great against opposing PGs, but Deron will be motivated to show his old team up. Sloan has been getting some nice run, but has failed to produce value. I have him projected at 20 DK points tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – James Harden vs. Dion Waiters – Harden got the Spurs treatment last game as they were trying to make up for a devastating loss to the Warriors. Tonight he gets his chance for revenge and he has used it wisely given every opportunity. Over the last 3 games he has put up 31, 41, and 37 “real points” against the Thunder. He will look to repeat this tonight in a high scoring matchup.
AVOID – Kobe Bryant vs. J.J. Redick – Just because you shoot 500 times doesn’t mean you are going to make them. Kobe is finally looking old and tired. His shot percentage is high, but his makes are down. I just think there are better options tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Gordon Hayward vs. Shabazz Muhammad- Hayward has been on fire the last couple of weeks. He is crushing value and should continue that trend tonight. The Wolves are ranked 21st against opposing SFs, so they shouldn’t really stand in his way.
AVOID – Marcus Morris vs. LeBron James- The Cavs have sped things up under new coach Ty Lue. However, that hasn’t stopped LBJ’s defensive dominance. Both Morris and James have been great defensively, but Morris is the guy to avoid in this matchup.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Chris Bosh vs. Jabari Parker – Bosh has been great this season and has hit value pretty much every game. He is an excellent cash play, but has strong upside for a GPP as well.
AVOID – Ed Davis vs. Marvin Williams – It amazes me that Davis still isn’t a starter. However, as long as he is getting bench minutes he will remain under value. The Hornets are weak against opposing PFs, but Davis just doesn’t get the usage to make him a play.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Nikola Vucevic vs. Jared Sullinger – Vuc thrives in a fast pace game and should get one tonight. He has been on point lately and has hit value in his last 3. I have him projected at 40 DK points tonight.
AVOID – Steven Adams vs. Dwight Howard- This is a play solely based on usage. Adams isn’t a bad C, but he just doesn’t get the usage with KD and Westy on his team. I like other options tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook ($10,800) and Kevin Durant ($10,100) – Both of these Thunder players have been on fire lately. They are the Thunder and make up the majority of the usage. If you can comfortably fit both guys on your DK team then make it happen. I am projecting 50+ for both in a fast pace game.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Josh Smith ($4,200) – Smith has found his way back home to Houston. He is very comfortable and has been playing great basketball off the bench. He has also been playing about 25 minutes a game which has given him a great chance at hitting value. With his price still low, he has a great shot at hitting value in a positive matchup tonight.
Dud of the Night
Elfrid Payton ($6,000) – Payton gets a tough matchup tonight against the Celtics. The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs and should look to lock Payton down tonight. He had a string of good games a couple of weeks ago, but has been sub value during his last two outings. I don’t think he has gotten over his prior injury completely.
Cameron Payne – Out, John Henson – Out, OJ Mayo – Out, Devin Harris – Out, Kevin Martin – Doubtful, Kevin Garnett – Doubtful, Jeremy Lin – Out –