Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Mavericks vs. Rockets- There are two games with a 207 total today, but I feel like this one could possibly go over. There are a lot of great matchup sand value in this one. The Beard will look to dominate Texas rivals and if Dirk plays he will have a phenomenal matchup. When you get a chance check out Chandler Parsons previous game logs and remember that there is a little narrative in this one.
LOW O/U – Clippers vs. Raptors- With a 205.5 total this one definitely isn’t low, but it is the lowest on the day. Both teams will look to their main two scorers to fill up the box score. For the Raps this will be Lowry and Derozan doing most of the scoring. For the Clips, Blake is still sidelined which means the responsibility falls in the lap of CP3 and Deandre.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Celtics vs. 76ers- With a 102.6 projected game pace this is a candidate to stack in the late games. I love Isaiah Thomas and both of the Celtic big men. The General Ish Smith has a tough matchup, but will get all the usage he can handle. I don’t see a lot of bad options here.
LOW PACE – Thunder vs. Nets- On a normal slate this wouldn’t be considered a low pace game. However, on a short slate with a 98.2 projected game pace this is one of the slower games today. Obviously KD and Westy are in play, but I have blowout fears. The Nets are close to being in shutdown mode and this limits most of the plays to BroLo and Thad (Mehhh) tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Chris Paul vs. Kyle Lowry- CP3 has a tough matchup tonight against a good defender in Lowry. However, his usage will be out the roof. Somebody has to score for the Clips and that should provide us with a lot of CP3 tonight.
AVOID – Donald Sloan vs. Russell Westbrook- I have a feeling this one could get out of hand very fast. However, if it stays close Sloan will have a tough time against one of the NBA’s elite. His price has recently gone up due to his role and that definitely hasn’t helped his value.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – James Harden vs Wes Matthews- Just like CP3, Harden’s matchup is not great today. His usage is also out the roof and he is projected at 40+ DK points today. If you want close to guaranteed points this is your play.
AVOID – Wayne Ellington vs. Andre Roberson Ellington played 29 minutes last game and put up 13 DK points…huh? His value is tied to his shooting and until he starts lighting it up I am staying away.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Kevin Durant vs. Joe Johnson- I won’t spend a lot of time explaining this one. KD is the only SF projected at over 40 DK points tonight.
AVOID – Wesley Johnson vs. James Johnson- Both of these guys should start for their respective team. However, due to low usage neither make for an appealing play. If you need about 15 DK points to hit your total insert and take a shot.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Dirk Nowitzki vs. Terrence Jones-Dirk is questionable tonight, but if he suits up he will have a great matchup. The pace is up and the total is high which means that he will have a great opportunity to hit value. I have him projected at around 35 DK points.
AVOID – Luis Scola vs. Luc Mbah a Moute- Scola is a hit or miss guy. His matchup isn’t bad tonight, but he is in a timeshare with Patty P. I just feel like there are better options tonight.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Deandre Jordan vs. Jonas Valanciunas Deandre is in the same boat as CP3. With Blake out Deandre will be called on to score more and grab boards. I have him projected as the highest C today.
AVOID – Bismack Biyombo vs. Deandre Jordan- Honestly there aren’t a lot of bad Center plays today. Biz is probably the lowest projected tonight because he won’t get the start. His price has come back down to earth, but the value isn’t there.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
James Harden (10,100)- This spot could easily go to Westy, but I am concerned that the Nets game could get out of hand. Harden will be called on to play all game and will have to put up a nice performance if the Rockets want to bring home a win.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Josh Smith (3,600) – Smith is back in Houston where everyone loves him. The Rockets are also limited due to big men injuries. He has a great shot to exceed value tonight.
Dud of the Night
Clint Capela(6,000) – Clint should get all the minutes he can handle, but if Zaza plays he has a tough matchup. I just don’t think he reaches or exceeds value tonight.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Dwight Howard- Doubtful, Steven Adams – Out