Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Pacers vs. Warriors- Earlier this season I thought the first matchup between these two would end the Warriors winning streak. The game stayed close, but the Warriors pulled it out in the end. The Pacers are now injury riddled, but that hasn’t brought the potential total in this one down. With a 218 o/u this game will be full of fantasy action. George Hill and Rodney Stuckey are out which means the offense will run through Ex-Warrior Monta Ellis and Paul George. The big 3 for the Warriors should all rival value tonight in this high paced, high scoring affair.
LOW O/U – Heat vs. Raptors- The post game will be strong in this one. With a total of 187.5, the scoring in this one is lower than the Jazz game (burnnnnn). The Heat are also facing a lot of injuries so make sure to check updates throughout the day. I like Bosh and Whiteside for the Heat. I will also run a flyer out on Jonas Val tonight for the Raps. As far as guards in this game, Derozan and Lowry present a lot of usage. And on the Heat side of the ball it all comes down to who plays.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Bulls vs. Celtics- Is anyone up for a little 101.9 projected game pace. I am and the Celtics have been gracious enough to oblige. Isaiah Thomas has been great this year and should produce another nice fantasy outing tonight. For the Bulls I love the combo of Pau and Taj tonight with a sprinkle of Butler for GPPs.
LOW PACE – Jazz vs. Nets- You didn’t think I would leave the Jazz off did you. They aren’t the slowest pace on the night, but they are a close second. with a projected game pace of 92.5 they are only .3 faster than the Heat game. Obviously the injury report matters for the Jazz in this one. It will also be fun to watch the BroLo versus Gobert matchup, but I don’t necessarily like it for fantasy purposes.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Isaiah Thomas vs. Derrick Rose- You could easily insert Curry, Westbrook, or Paul into a target spot, but the matchup looks great for IT2. The Bulls are ranked 28th against opposing guards. The pace and the usage is in IT2’s favor, I like him as a potential “overlooked” candidate tonight.
AVOID – Tyler Johnson/Beno Udrih vs. Kyle Lowry- The Heat guards have been providing value while Dragic is out. Tonight they face Lowry who is a great defender and 2nd against opposing PGs. I think the guard value is on the Hornets tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – James Harden vs Khris Middleton- Usage, usage, usage and the potential for 50 DK points tonight. Harden is projected at over 45 DK points tonight. He may even ham harder knowing that his buddy Josh Smith is coming back to town. I love the beard tonight!
AVOID – Wayne Ellington vs. Rodney Hood The SG dilemma in Brooklyn is horrendous. Ellington has gotten the nod, but ultimately hasn’t produced. The Jazz are great against guards and should limit the production even more.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Paul George vs. Harrison Barnes- This matchup isn’t great, because the Warriors could also run out Iggy to guard PG. However, if the Pacers want to stay in the game they are going to need a big night from Paul George. I think he has 45+ in him tonight.
AVOID – Chandler Parsons vs. Kevin Durant – Parsons has been coming along, but KD is top 10 against opposing SFs. He should get a lot of usage tonight, but I don’t think he exceeds value.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Draymond Green vs. Jordan Hill- I mean is this a joke. Green should come out feeling All-Star snubbed tonight and may be looking for one of his many Trip-Dubs this season. I think he goes for over 40 DK points based on motivation alone.
AVOID – Julius Randle vs. LaMarcus Aldridge- Larry Nance will probably sit again tonight, which means Randle’s usage will be up. However, when you face the Spurs it doesn’t matter how much usage you get. I think Randle is overpriced tonight.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Pau Gasol vs. Kelly Olynyk Gasol has a great matchup and will be leaned on in a heavy way to carry the Bulls to victory. This is also a 40+ guy tonight which means his stock will probably be high.
AVOID – Brook Lopez vs. Rudy Gobert- Gobert and the Jazz are ranked 5th against opposing Cs. Usually I love BroLo, but I think there are better options at Center tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Stephen Curry ($10,400) and Russell Westbrook ($10,600) – I couldn’t leave either of these guys out tonight. Both are projected at over 50 DK points and have show us the ability to do so much more lately. Matchups, totals, pace, and usage are all on target for big games tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Spencer Hawes ($3,100) – I am unhappy with Hawes, as he was seen around Charlotte wearing a Seahawks jersey. I don’t carry my hatred into DFS though as he will get the start for my Hornets. At his price he has a great potential to reach value tonight.
Dud of the Night
Kawhi Leonard ($8,200) – This all boils down to a distrust of Popovich and a potential Blowout. He needs about 40 to hit value, but he has been on a less than 30 trip lately. If you are going to pay up, I see better options.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Nicolas Batum – Out, Cody Zeller – Out, Dwight Howard – Out, Josh Smith – Doubtful, Dwyane Wade – Out, Luol Deng – Out, Goran Dragic – Doubtful, Larry Nance – Out, George Hill – Out