Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – 76ers vs. Lakers- The fact that this is the highest scoring game on the day is a little concerning. With a total of 206 this will be the battle for worst tonight. With General Ish at the helm of the 76ers, they have surprisingly been putting together some nice outings. I like Ish and Noel for the 76ers. On the Laker side of the ball you could look to Larry Nance Jr. as value, as well as the plethora of guards they utilize.
LOW O/U – Mavericks vs. Heat- The Heat bring us the lowest scoring game on the night at 194.5. This one should be post heavy and I love where Bosh comes in tonight. Bosh has the matchup to be an elite play. I also like Parson’s and Dirk for the Mavs as the Heat have been locking down guards (J.J. Barea and Devin Harris).
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Magic vs. Wizards- This one is not as fast as the toilet bowl (you see what I did there…bowl season). The projected game pace of this one is 99.2 and will be controlled by John Wall. I love a mini stack with Wall and Gortat. I also like Evan Fournier in a phenomenal matchup.
LOW PACE – Hornets vs. Raptors- This game has a 96.2 projected game pace. The Hornets will look to speed things up, but they have been bitten by the injury bug. I like Kyle Lowry in this one, as well as big Val. On the Hornets side Cody Zeller is in play as a value play.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Ish Smith vs. The Lakers- General Ish is back in Philly and he has been running the floor. The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing guards. Ish is an elite play tonight.
AVOID – J.J. Barea vs. Goran Dragic – Deron Williams may play tonight, but if he doesn’t a lot of people will be seduced by the J.J. appeal. He has been on fire during his starts, but his price has gone up and he gets a very tough matchup. There are better options tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Evan Fournier vs. Garrett Temple- This has really been SG by committee with Beal sidelined. Fournier has turned it up a notch lately. He has a great matchup tonight against a soft Washington D. I am rolling him out everywhere.
AVOID – Dwyane Wade vs. Wesley Matthews- The Iron man has played great for Dallas. The Mavs are ranked 5th against SGs. I think that this game will be all about the post. D Wade should have a tough go competing with Matthews tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Carmelo Anthony vs. Nikola Mirotic- Melo has gotten back to his value ways. The Knicks will need him tonight to help them stay in the game with the Bulls. The Bulls are ranked 21st against opposing SFs and we all know that Melo will be chucking up shots.
AVOID – P.J. Hairston vs. Demarre Carroll Carroll makes NBA money for his defense. Hairston has been burning some 3s, but his matchup tonight is quite concerning. I will be paying up for Melo tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Chris Bosh vs. Dirk Nowitzki- Bosh has a great matchup tonight against a Mavs team that has given up a lot of points to opposing PFs. Bosh should be an elite play on a short slate tonight.
AVOID – Taj Gibson vs. Kristaps Porzingis- Taj has been a nice source of value with Noah sidelined. I think he should be fine tonight for Cash games as usage should provide him value. However, his upside may be limited by the rookies great D.
TARGET – Nerlens Noel vs. Roy Hibbert Noel is back to his comfort zone as the 5. He also has his buddy Ish back. He should dominate this matchup tonight.
AVOID – Hassan Whiteside vs. Zaza Pachulia- Zaza has been lock down this season. Hassan is a beast on the boards, but this seems to be a Chris Bosh night. I like playing a Philly guard tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
John Wall ($9,700) – Simple, who else is going to score for the Wizards. 45+ projected DK points tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Ramon Sessions ($4,100) – Sessions has been getting more burn due to Beal’s absence. On a short slate he provides great value and should hit around 20 DK points.
Dud of the Night
Jahlil Okafor($6,300) – Okafor will get some decent run, but should be coming off the bench again. The Ish trade has made Noel a better play as of late. As long as the 76ers win with Ish and Noel, they will roll Okafor out 2nd.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Bradley Beal – Out, Jeremy Lin – Out, Gary Neal – Out, Josh McRoberts – Out