Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Lakers vs. Warriors – You want points? Look no further than Cali. The total in this game is 214.5. The Warriors are fuming coming off of a loss that shouldn’t have happened. The Lakers may or may not have Kobe tonight. I think Curry and company dominates this one from the jump ball.
LOW O/U – Cavaliers vs. Spurs- Slow defensive ball versus iso ball means a low total. The total for this game is 195.5. I love LeBron and Kawhi tonight as I think this could be a “one up” show.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Bulls vs. 76ers- The Bulls are a little injury riddled tonight. The pace should still be faster in this one and this game has a projected game pace of 101.1. I love the big men on both sides of the ball tonight.
LOW PACE – Pistons vs. Grizzlies – One of the slower games on the night will be Pistons versus Griz. The projected game pace in this one is 95.8. This one will also be a battle of the big men as Drummond and Gasol battle it out tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Stephen Curry vs. Jordan Clarkson- Curry is coming off a 20 point quarter last night that still led to defeat. He also posted 60+ DK points. Tonight he gets the Lakers, who are 30th against opposing PGs. Draymond is doubtful, which means that Curry will be left to carry the load.
AVOID – Rajon Rondo vs. Trey Burke – Usually I love Rondo based on usage alone, but tonight he does get a tougher matchup. The pace will slow down during this game and it will be lower scoring. The Jazz are ranked 6th against opposing PGs. I have Rondo projected at about 30 DK points tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Rodney Hood vs. Marco Belinelli- Belinelli started the 2nd half for Benny Mc last night. I feel like he will get the start again tonight. However, the Kings are 29th against opposing SGs and have given up 30+ DK points on average to the position this season. I love Hood tonight and love him even more if Favors sits.
AVOID – J.R. Smith vs. Danny Green This one is simple as the Spurs are 1st against SGs and are basically 1st against every other position. J.R. has found his stroke over the last couple of games, but should be limited to under 20 DK points tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – LeBron James vs. Kawhi Leonard – I know, you are reading this and saying this is a contradiction. I have told you in the past to never play someone against Kawhi. However, this is the King and this is an important game. I like both of these guys tonight and have them hovering around 40 DK points.
AVOID – Jeff Green vs. Marcus Morris Morris has been great against opposing SFs. The most important thing about this matchup will be to track the status of Mike Conley and Matt Barnes. If either guy sits then Green’s usage goes up and he has a chance to hit value. If they both play Green’s usage goes down and his ability to hit value worries me tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Zach Randolph vs. Ersan Illysova – Matt Barnes is on the injury watchlist tonight, which means that Z Bo may get another start. He didn’t look fabulous in his last start, but he does get the 22nd team against opposing PFs. I like him to throw up 25+ DK points tonight even if he comes off of the bench.
AVOID – Kevin Love vs. LaMarcus Aldridge – This matchup goes both ways as both teams are ranked in the top 5 against the position. Kevin Love and LaMarcus Aldridge should make strong cash game plays, but I doubt either one of them exceeds value tonight.
TARGET – Joakim Noah vs. Jahlil Okafor Pau Gasol is out for the night, which means Joakim Noah should get the start. Okafor is a typical rookie that couldn’t guard me in the post. I look for Noah to take advantage of his starting role tonight and fill up the rebounds/blocks stat category.
AVOID – Tim Duncan vs. Timofey Mozgov – This is another one of those anomaly matchups where both guys will equally have a tough time. Both teams are great defenders of the C position and neither guy has truly hit their offensive stride this year. I like other options at this spot tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Stephen Curry ($10,600) – The Chef doesn’t like losing and unfortunately he took an L last night. He should look to come out blazing tonight against an in-state rival. If Draymond sits I wouldn’t be surprised to see value and more come out of Curry tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Bobby Portis ($4,100) – Portis has produced fantasy points when given the minutes. He should get all the minutes he can handle against the terrible frontcourt of the 76ers tonight. Pau Gasol is out and Noah/Gibson will start, this means that Portis will be the first off of the bench and a great value play tonight.
Dud of the Night
Rajon Rondo ($8,600) – Once again I repeat…I have loved Rondo this season. He gets a tough matchup tonight and is rather high priced. I just feel like there are better options.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Jerami Grant – Doubtful, Pau Gasol – Out, Mo Williams – Out, Derrick Favors – Doubtful, Draymond Green – Doubtful, Brandon Bass – Doubtful, Kobe Bryant – Doubtful, James Michael McAdoo – Doubtful