Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Thunder vs. Timberwolves – Tonight’s highest total is 210. The spread in this game is -11, which worries me about a potential blowout. I do think that Westy and KD will hit value. On the opposite side of the floor, I like Rubio’s price and potential. He should be able to do work tonight.
LOW O/U – Spurs vs. Pistons- Once again the Spurs come in at the lowest total of the night thanks to great defense. The o/u in this one is 194 and should remain relatively close. I like R Jax and Drummond for the Pistons. I worry about playing time for the Spurs as they are facing a back to back.
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Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Suns vs. Pacers- If you are looking for fast pace tonight, this is your game. With a projected game pace of 102 this is the fastest game of the evening. I love the value in this game (thanks Suns) and feel like I will build a lot of my lines around this one. If you are looking high dollar I love PG in a game that should be blazing.
LOW PACE – Cavaliers vs. Mavericks – No it’s not the Jazz, the Griz, or the Spurs. Tonight the lowest pace honor goes to the Cavs with a 94.8 projected game pace. This is isoball and will center around Lebron. I am interested to see who carries the load for the Mavs, but due to uncertainty and decent matchups I am staying away.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Tyreke Evans vs. Jordan Clarkson- The Lakers are 30th against opposing PGs. It is uncertain who will get the PG start for the Lakers, but it doesn’t matter. Tyreke should have his way with a terrible backcourt and should exceed value.
AVOID – Jose Calderon vs. Isaiah Thomas – IT2 is on point defensively this year. The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing guards. Calderon has hit value in a couple of recent games, but will struggle to produce tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Jimmy Butler vs. Khris Middleton- Buckets is the leading scorer for the Bulls and a fantasy gold mine. The Bucks are 17th against opposing SGs and Buckets should have his way tonight.
AVOID – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. Danny Green KCP usually does a great job coming right in around value, but hardly ever exceeds. Green and the Spurs are first against opposing SGs and are only giving up 20 DK points to the position.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Paul George vs. T.J. Warren/P.J. Tucker – If I am looking for consistency and high scoring PG is the play. He gets a great matchup against the Suns who haven’t guarded a SF yet this season. I have him projected at 45+ DK points and feel like he could go over 50.
AVOID – Marcus Morris vs. Kawhi Leonard I am going to say this, don’t play players against Kawhi. That is all…
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Zach Randolph vs. Clint Capela – Z Bo has found his stride, posting huge DK numbers. He has had 39 and 50+ in the last two games coming off the bench. He gets the best matchup of the night and won’t cost you as much as the high dollar plays, but should still provide great production.
AVOID – Amir Johnson vs. Kristaps Porzingis – The rookie has thoroughly impressed me this year. I do think that he can develop into the next Dirk and possibly be even better. Amir will have all he can handle against the 8th ranked team against PFs.
TARGET – Greg Monroe vs. Pau Gasol I have come to the conclusion that any C can dominate the Bulls. The Bulls are 24th against the position and face Monroe who has had a great year for the Bucks. During their first meeting he had 34 DK points and will look to build on that tonight.
AVOID – Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Steven Adams – This is simple, I can get better Cs for a cheaper price. KAT has a tough matchup tonight against the team ranked 3rd against opposing Cs. The rookie has had a good year, but will have all he can handle tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook ($10,700) – Russell Westbrook amazes me… In his last two outings the guy has put up 56 and 60 DK points respectively. I know, the price is extremely high, but if you want consistency in a cash game or 50/50 then look no further. On the GPP end of things if you pair some value plays with Westy you can have a monster night.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Rodney Stuckey ($4,200) – Just like Manu last night, Rodney will be a first man off the bench value play. He gets a great matchup with a Suns team that is decimated by injuries. At his price point we are only looking for 20 DK points. I have him projected at about 25 tonight.
Dud of the Night
Dwight Howard ($7,300) – Dwight went off for 50 DK points after sitting out a game. When Dwight has suited up this season he has put together some nice performances. However, tonight he gets a tough matchup against Marc Gasol. As I look at the script for this game I see it as going two ways and both don’t benefit Dwight. If it stays close, then Dwight will have to battle Marc. If it is a blowout we will see much more Clint Capela due to Dwight’s injuries. For $7,300 I am looking elsewhere.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Alex Len – Out, Ty Lawson – Out, Jerryd Bayless – Out, Anthony Davis – Questionable, Brandon Knight – Doubtful