Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Thunder vs. Trailblazers – With a 214 total this game is the highest scoring of the night. The spread is also at 7.5 which means the game should stay close. This one will be all Westy and Durant for the Thunder as both are projected at 45+ DK points. For the Trailblazers it is the Damian Lillard show and he is also projected at 45+.
LOW O/U – Celtics vs. Grizzlies- It is very unusual to see the Celtics in the lowest scoring game of the night. The Celtics have played at a very fast pace and have usually been on the higher scoring end of nights. The o/u is 193 and will be played in the post, I like Gasol and Olynyk. I also like IT2 as he may get a weaker matchup versus Mario Chalmers tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Pacers vs. Rockets- This is the only game with a +100 game pace on the night. The projected game pace in this one is 100.6. I love where the PG and the Beard come in at tonight as both have phenomenal matchups. It will also be interesting to see if Dwight Howard sits because this will open up a lot of value tonight.
LOW PACE – Jazz vs. Lakers- Is there really any surprise here? The Jazz are in the slowest pace game of the night at 94.4. They weren’t the lowest total (thanks Griz), but were only one point off of holding that title as well. I am tracking Kobe and Derrick Favors, because both could be great plays tonight if they take the court.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Russell Westbrook vs. Damian Lillard- Lillard has never been a great defender. Westbrook is one of the league’s elite. I love the total and his usage tonight. I also love the fact that he is coming off of a 62 DK point game. I am rolling him out with confidence tonight.
AVOID – Mario Chalmers vs. Isaiah Thomas – Mike Conley is doubtful today, which means that Chalmers should once again get the start. He left us all in tears the last game we played him due to a terrible performance. IT2 is the 2nd best defender of opposing PGs in the league. Chalmers usage may help you in a cash game, but won’t win you a GPP tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Jeremy Lin vs. Will Barton- Lin will get the start if Nic Batum sits again tonight. Lin has been great during his starts and gets a great matchup tonight. During his last start he put up 40 DK points.
AVOID – Lou Williams vs. Rodney Hood Hood didn’t play yesterday against the Heat, but the Jazz were still tough against the SG position. The Jazz are ranked 5th against opposing SGs and will look to lock Lou down tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Lebron James vs. Jakkar Sampson/Robert Covington – Doesn’t matter who the 76ers start at SF tonight, LBJ will dominate. Always play SFs versus the 76ers and the Wizards.
AVOID – Trevor Ariza vs. Paul George George started out the season in the 4 spot and looked like he was developing into a nice stretch 4. Since then the Pacers have moved him back to his true 3 spot and he has played great defense. Ariza has had a rough year (like every Rocket) and has only hit value in 1 of the last 5. Better options tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kenneth Faried vs. Marvin Williams – The Manimal is questionable and if he sits, I love Darrell Arthur in this spot. My Hornets have struggled against the PF spot and due to injury should continue to struggle all season. Whoever starts for the Nuggets at PF tonight has a chance to dominate.
AVOID – Nerlens Noel vs. Kevin Love – The Cavs are great against opposing PFs. Love and Tristan Thompson have both played a role in their success. Noel look good last week in his true 5 spot, but has since been regulated back to a strong 4. At his price and with this matchup 25 DK points just aren’t going to cut it.
TARGET – Rudy Gobert vs. Roy Hibbert Gobert got a full compliment of limits last night and shouldn’t be limited on back to back. He has a great matchup against the Lakers and should look to build on his 30+ DK points last night.
AVOID – Mason Plumlee vs. Steven Adams – No his name isn’t Westbrook or Durant, but Adams is a great defensive force for the Thunder. Plumlee is up and down usually posting a 30 DK point game and then a 15 point DK game. This one will be about the stars tonight and Plumlee doesn’t fall into that category.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook (10,600) – Well his price has come down….his usage is up…and he is playing in the game with the highest total. I love Westy tonight and will build most of my lineups around him.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jeremy Lin (5,600) – Lin carries the questionable tag into tonight’s game, but should suit up. He also has an opportunity to get the start tonight. If all these factors fall into pace he will make for a great Cash and GPP play tonight.
Dud of the Night
Kyrie Irving (7,200) – I really want to start playing Irving religiously, but in this games that have blowout potential Kyrie will more than likely sit. I just don’t think he exceeds value tonight.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Mike Conley – Doubtful, Courtney Lee – Doubtful, OJ Mayo – Out, Jerryd Bayless – Out, Ty Lawson – Out