Game Flow Notes

Vegas Lines

HIGH O/U Celtics vs. Bucks – The total for this one is 208. IT2 has a great chance to show out for the Celtics. For the Bucks, I like Greg Monroe and the Greek Freak.

LOW O/U Jazz vs. Mavericks- Simply put, the Jazz play tonight. The total in this one 183. The Jazz are terribly slow and the only player that sticks out in this game is Derrick Favors.


Pace of Play

Away TeamAway PaceHome TeamHome PaceAvg Pace
San Antonio96.90Miami95.9096.40
Washington101.00New York97.7099.35
Boston102.80Milwaukee97.50100.15
Utah95.20Dallas98.7096.95
Houston101.40Golden State103.70102.55

HIGH PACE Rockets vs. Warriors – The total for this one isn’t out yet, but the pace is. The projected game pace for this one is 103.6. I love Steph and Harden to put up a show. And I like where Draymond comes in at as well.

LOW PACE Spurs vs. Heat – This will be the battle of the post tonight as the Spurs and Heat hammer it out. The projected game pace is 92.9 and this one should see a lot of rebounds. I like LMA and Bosh in this one as they will be trying to one up each other.

Defense vs. Position

Point Guard Matchups

RankBest DvPGFPPGAOppRankWorst DvPGFPPGAOpp
1BOS40.31 MIL1HOU46.40 GSW
2MIA41.88 SAS2WAS46.02 NYK
3SAS44.00 MIA3GSW45.73 HOU

TARGETIsaiah Thomas vs. Michael Carter-Williams – IT2 is the 3rd ranked PG on the night, but he has the best price. He is also an All-Star and will face the 9th ranked MCW. For his price I don’t see any better guard option tonight.

AVOIDGoran Dragic vs. Tony Parker – This is a case of best defensive players at their positions. Goran and Tony are 2nd and 5th respectively. I just think there are better options on a short slate night.


Shooting Guard Matchups

RankBest DvSGFPPGAOppRankWorst DvSGFPPGAOpp
1SAS32.79 MIA1WAS42.04 NYK
2UTA35.52 DAL2MIL41.53 BOS
3MIA36.70 SAS3HOU39.33 GSW

TARGETJames Harden vs. Klay Thompson – The Beard has a tough matchup tonight. The Warriors are ranked 5th against opposing SGs. Harden’s worth comes from the game pace and usage. I think he will rival Steph for the top scorer tonight.

AVOIDWesley Matthews vs. Rodney Hood – Honestly, I don’t like either one of these guys tonight. They are both great defensive players, but struggle on the offensive side of things. Hood is 2nd against opposing SGs and will give Matthews all he can handle tonight.


Small Forward Matchups

RankBest DvSFFPPGAOppRankWorst DvSFFPPGAOpp
1SAS34.00 MIA1HOU45.25 GSW
2UTA37.27 DAL2WAS43.07 NYK
3DAL37.77 UTA3MIL42.13 BOS

TARGET Carmelo Anthony vs. Otto Porter- Carmelo is the top ranked SF tonight. The Wizards are ranked 27th against opposing SFs. I have Melo at 40+ DK points tonight and think he may exceed value.

AVOIDLuol Deng vs. Kawhi Leonard- Don’t play a SF against Kawhi. Don’t play a SF that doesn’t have a lot of usage against anybody.


Power Forward Matchups

RankBest DvPFFPPGAOppRankWorst DvPFFPPGAOpp
1UTA42.04 DAL1HOU50.34 GSW
2SAS42.78 MIA2DAL48.93 UTA
3NYK42.86 WAS3BOS47.91 MIL

TARGETDraymond Green vs. Josh Smith – I love a Steph and Draymond stack tonight. Just like the Rockets can’t guard PGs or SFs they can’t guard PFs. The Rockets are ranked 30th against PFs and Green may shoot for a triple-double tonight.

AVOID Dirk Nowitzki vs. Derrick Favors – Old man Dirk has had a nice season this year, but will get a tough matchup tonight. The Jazz are ranked 1st against PFs and Dirk shouldn’t produce like usual tonight. I just have a bad feeling about the 183 total tonight.


Center Matchups

RankBest DvCFPPGAOppRankWorst DvCFPPGAOpp
1UTA41.64 DAL1HOU49.84 GSW
2SAS44.01 MIA2WAS49.45 NYK
3MIA45.44 SAS3BOS49.44 MIL

TARGET Greg Monroe vs. Jared Sullinger – The Celtics can’t seem to figure out what they want to do with their big men or anybody else’s big men. Monroe is the top ranked C tonight and has a great price tag. I will have him in Cash and GPP for his ability to exceed value tonight.

AVOID Zaza Pachulia vs. Rudy Gobert – Gobert is ranked 1st against opposing Cs. Pachulia has been great this year and even made the All-Star ballot. Based on the total, I don’t like either guy in this one.


Lineup Quick Hits

Superstar Worth Paying For

Stephen Curry ($11,000) – The Chef has a great matchup tonight and is projected at 55+ DK points tonight. He should be frustrated (as am I) after the Panthers loss in the Super Bowl, so I look for him to light it up tonight.

Save Big Bucks by Drafting

Harrison Barnes ($4,700) – Barnes gets a great matchup against Houston. He gets the minutes and has usage enough to produce. I have him projected at 25+ DK points tonight. For his price and on a short slate I will have quite a bit of exposure.

Dud of the Night

Trevor Ariza ($6,200) – Ariza is hot and cold, but is more frequently cold. When Harden and Howard are both on the court it cuts into Ariza’s usage. He can get hot, but due to matchup and usage I like other options tonight.

Out/Doubtful Tonight

Matt Bonner – Out, John Henson – Out, Devin Harris – Out-