Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Hawks vs. Magic – The highest total listed so far is this game. With a 201.5 it doesn’t provide us the thrills we got from Thunder/Warriors, but it does give us some options. Vucevic has a great matchup for the Magic and we could see a nice line from Aaron Gordon given his extra minutes. The Hawks will likely show us a lot of Millsap today.
LOW O/U – Clippers vs. Heat- It is unusual to see the Clippers in the lowest scoring game, but this has a lot to do with the Heat. The Heat will play post heavy and look to control the rock. The total in this one is 196, so it is also a game in play. The Clips will feature a lot of Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan. The Heat should throw a lot of the regulars out with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh carrying the load.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Kings vs. Celtics – With a game pace of 105.3 this game is smoking and will also probably be the highest total when the line drops. I love IT2 in revenge fashion and also find Rondo an interesting play as he is back in Boston. The fantasy producer of the day should be Boogie Cousins as his usage is always through the roof.
LOW PACE – Nuggets vs. Knicks- This game isn’t the slowest, but it is close. With a projected pace of 95.9 this one will be “Triangle” offense dominate. I don’t think we can consider this a Carmelo revenge game anymore, but he still should produce. I also like Nikola Jokic as he has been on fire lately.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Isaiah Thomas vs. Rajon Rondo – I love both of these guys on the narrative side of things. I also love IT2’s matchup against the 23rd ranked Kings. This game should be fast and provide a lot of stats for the guards.
AVOID – Goran Dragic vs. Chris Paul – CP3 is hailed as one of the best PG defenders in the league. Dragic just hasn’t been that strong offensively this year. I think the 3rd ranked team against opposing PGs will shut down this Heat guard today.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Avery Bradley vs. King’s Starting SG – It honestly doesn’t matter who gets the start for the King’s at SG they can’t guard anyone. They are ranked 29th against opposing SGs and Bradley is starting to see nice minutes again. I think Avery has a chance to exceed value today.
AVOID – J.J. Redick vs. Dwyane Wade – Wade and the Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing SGs. Redick is a pure shooter that doesn’t fill a lot of other categories. He will get minutes and usage, but he just doesn’t do enough to make it worth a look.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Danilo Gallinari vs. Carmelo Anthony- Melo is questionable today, but if he goes he also makes for a great play. Danilo comes in cheaper and makes for better value. I think we are looking at 35+ for both of these guys today.
AVOID – Wes Johnson vs. Luol Deng- Just like the two guys above Johnson and Deng are very similar. They are defensive players and usually don’t see a lot of offensive production. I am staying away from both of them as they shouldn’t see a lot of usage.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – DeMarcus Cousins vs. Amir Johnson – Boogie has a great matchup against the 25th ranked Celtics, but honestly Boogie is Boogie! Boogie down today.
AVOID – Kenneth Faried vs. Kristaps Porzingis – Porzingis is a great defender and has maintained this his entire rookie season. The Manimal comes in at a great price, but just hasn’t seen the offensive production like in the past. I am all in on Boogie today.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – DeAndre Jordan vs. Hassan Whiteside – DeAndre has seen a huge jump in usage with Blake out. Hassan has been his typical great self. I like both guys and think this will turn into a rebound battle. Look for both guys to try and outdo the other.
AVOID – Robin Lopez vs. Nikola Jokic – The Nuggets are not great against opposing Cs, coming in at 22nd in the league. Jokic has turned it on, but he still isn’t a great defender. The problem here is usage as Robin Lopez will see limited usage if Carmelo is in the lineup.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,200) – Boogie down today, roll him out liberally!
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Kent Bazemore ($5,200) – Just Baze threw up some nice DK points during his last outing. He has a nice matchup today and isn’t a bad price. I like him to hit around 25+ DK points today.
Dud of the Night
Will Barton ($5,700) – Barton gets a matchup with Affalo today and should be a little stifled. Usually I like him and his price, but I think the matchup will get him today.
Rudy Gay – Doubtful, Ben Mclemore – Doubtful, Tiago Splitter – Out-