Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Thunder vs. Warriors – Is there anyway we can stack this whole game. With an o/u of 230, this total is insane and may even go over. With 4 of the top projected players on the night, this game will be fun to watch. Obviously the Steph and Russell matchup will be phenomenal. It should also be interesting to see what Kevin Durant does and if this game is like an “audition” for him. A sneaky play with a great matchup could be Klay Thompson as the Thunder have struggled with SGs all year.
LOW O/U – Jazz vs. Suns – There they are, our favorite low scoring team The Utah Jazz. With a total of 189 tonight this is definitely the lowest scoring. The Utah bigs should exceed value and due to usage Markieff Morris comes in as a decent play.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
|Oklahoma City||100.80||Golden State||103.60||102.20|
HIGH PACE – Wizards vs. Hornets – We all know that the Thunder/Warriors game will be extremely fast pace, but the Hornets will come in at a close 2nd. The Hornets lost a heartbreaker to the Heat the last outing, but will be looking to get one back tonight. The projected game pace is 100. John Wall is coming off of a Triple Double and MKG is back in a good matchup for the Hornets. There is some decent value here, but you may have to dig a little.
LOW PACE – Mavericks vs. Grizzlies- I am not sure that the Mavericks will want to take the court after the Spur beat down last night. However, the Mavs will be looking to get a win. The projected game pace is 94.3 and will be a big man game tonight. The only play that stands out tonight is Marc Gasol. Gasol has the ability to exceed value and will have a high usage tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Ish Smith vs. Donald Sloan – General Smith will look to exploit a limited Nets team tonight. The Nets big men will have a great matchup, but Ish benefits from playing the 28th ranked Nets. I think he exceeds value tonight.
AVOID – Tony Parker vs. D’Angelo Russell – Parker has let me down this season. He hasn’t hit value in the last three and has some great matchups. He gets another great matchup tonight, but I think he only puts up about 20 FPs.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – James Harden vs. CJ McCollum – The Beard is one of the highest projected plays on the night. The Trailblazers are ranked 16th against opposing SGs. With the Beard it doesn’t matter about matchups as his usage is so high he will get his. I am looking at 50 DK points tonight.
AVOID – Lou Williams vs. Danny Green – The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. Williams had a rough outing during his last game, but is usually on point. With the SG position you need to have a guy that can exceed value. I just don’t think Lou gets it done tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – LeBron James vs. Alonzo Gee- LBJ and the Cavs are at an interesting spot. They need a win and get the Brow tonight. LBJ is the highest projected SF and he has a great chance to exceed value tonight.
AVOID – Marcus Morris vs. Paul George- Morris has had a great season for the Pistons. George and the Pacers are ranked 2nd against opposing SFs. With all the other options tonight, I just don’t think Morris’ 25 DK points will get it done.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Anthony Davis vs. Kevin Love – Love is questionable tonight with a bruised thigh. If the Pelicans want a chance they are going to have to get a lot out of AD. The Brow will have a shot at putting up 45-50 DK points tonight and should be even higher owned if Love can’t go.
AVOID – Zach Randolph vs. Dirk Nowitzki – Zbo is trying to understand his role as a bench player. He does have a positive matchup tonight, but is a risk at his price point and the amount of minutes he is getting lately.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Brook Lopez vs. Nerlens Noel – BroLo has been on fire lately and paid dividends last night. He is projected at 45 DK points tonight and should exceed. The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs and BroLo should exploit that all night.
AVOID – Andrew Bogut vs. Steven Adams – Both of these guys are in tough spots tonight. They are both great defenders and have teammates that control the usage. I am staying away from both of them tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook/Stephen Curry – Two of the best PGs in the league square off tonight. They are both very high priced, but I would love a lineup with both tonight. They could both hit 60 (or even more) DK points tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Allen Crabbe (4,100) – Crabbe has been a nice source of value lately. He gets a high pace matchup tonight and should see about 20+ minutes I think he exceeds value and puts up about 25 DK points tonight.
Dud of the Night
Trevor Ariza (6,200) – Ariza has cooled off since going ham for about 3 games. He gets a tough matchup against Aminu tonight and he should have all he can handle. I don’t see him hitting value tonight.
Terrence Jones – Out, Noah Vonleh – Doubtful, Kris Humphries – Out, Tyreke Evans – Out, Jimmy Bulter – Doubtful, Nikola Mirotic – Out, Nikola Pekovic – Doubtful, Kevin Martin – Doubtful, Matt Bonner – Out, Trey Burke – Out