Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – 76ers vs. Wizards – With a 215 total this is the highest scoring of the night. The 76ers come into tonight’s game with a 7-42 record, this is pitiful, but so 76er like. Obviously Wall comes in as a nice play with so many points possible. I also like Robert Covington for the 76ers as he has a very positive matchup.
LOW O/U – Bucks vs. Jazz – Finally we have the battle of the low scoring, slow pace teams. The Bucks take on the Jazz tonight and have produced a total of 190 points. This fits the game pace and should be a game with a lot of missed shots/rebounds. I typically don’t like anyone against the Jazz, but Giannis Antetokounmpo doesn’t have a terrible matchup. For the Jazz look no further than the bigs, Gobert and Favors. Both should have the opportunity to post nice lines tonight.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Pacers vs. Hawks – Honestly, this game interests me at this spot. With a projected game pace of 101 this is the 2nd highest game on the night. I feel like the pace should come in well under 100, but I guess that’s the nature of the beast. Two guys that could put up a cool 40 DK points for you tonight are in this matchup. Millsap and George both will have high usage rates for their teams and also have decent matchups.
LOW PACE – Grizzlies vs. Knicks – It would be very easy for me to put the Jazz and the Bucks in this spot as they are the slowest on the evening. However, a close second is the Griz coming in with a projected game pace of 93.7. This one will also be big heavy as Marc Gasol gets to battle Robin Lopez. Carmelo has a good matchup against the Griz who have been weak against SFs as well.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Rajon Rondo vs. Donald Sloan – If we are looking at matchups alone this one is crazy. The Nets are ranked 28th against opposing guards, but also are limited at the PG spot due to injury. Rondo has found his stride with the Kings and should look to exceed value tonight.
AVOID – Kemba Walker vs. Goran Dragic – Kemba at home is usually a great play. However, Kemba coming off injury playing a 2nd ranked team against opposing PGs is not. I just worry he won’t have all of the juice back tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Jimmy Butler vs. Will Barton – Butler got us all with his late scratch the other night (however I was able to change him out on DK). He is questionable tonight, but is the highest projected SG. If he doesn’t play give E’Twaun Moore a look as he put up 40 DK points for Buckets the other night.
AVOID – Wesley Matthews vs. Danny Green – The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. Matthews has some breakout games, but is usually a defensive threat. I think he comes in at about 20 DK points tonight, which just won’t cut it.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Otto Porter vs. Robert Covington- The battle of the worst defensive SFs is in full force tonight. Both of these guys can’t cover and they are ranked 29th and 30th against opposing SFs. It makes me feel like they both can exceed value just by taking the court.
AVOID – Chandler Parsons vs. Kawhi Leonard- Don’t play a SF against Kawhi. There was my good deed for the day.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – DeMarcus Cousins vs. Thad Young – I am a big fan of both of these guys tonight. I think that both have an opportunity to exceed value. Neither team plays defense and both teams are ranked in the bottom 20 against opposing PFs. Play them at will.
AVOID – Jabari Parker vs. Derrick Favors – Now that Favors is back from injury and doing well, he is about at Kawhi level. Favors is ranked 1st against opposing PFs. Parker has had a nice couple of games, but Favors will simply be too much for him tonight.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Brook Lopez vs. Willie Cauley-Stein – WCS and the Kings are 27th against opposing Cs. BroLo is a 50 DK point performance waiting to happen. If the Nets want to stay in games he has to play well. I think he goes for 45+ tonight.
AVOID – Boston Cs vs. Timofey Mozgov/Tristan Thompson – Boston just can’t decide who is the better C, Olynyk or Sullinger. It doesn’t matter who gets the bulk of the work tonight, the Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing Cs. Better plays out there, look to Denver.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,300) – Boogie is about the most expensive player I have seen all season. His price tag should amount to DK points and he gets another positive matchup tonight. I have him projected at 55+ DK points tonight against BroLo. If you are going to pay up it is definitely the night to Boogie down.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Nikola Jokic ($5,900) – Jokic has been a man on fire as of late, posting monster lines and monster DK points. He gets a great matchup against the Bulls who typically struggle against athletic Cs. I think he exceeds value and is a great sub-6k play.
Dud of the Night
Kemba Walker ($8,300) – It is always hard for me to go against the home team, but Kemba is probable tonight after coming off of an injury. He gets a tough matchup against the Heat who have been ranked 1st or 2nd against opposing PGs all season. I typically like to stay away from players that are just coming off of injury until they prove that they are up to full speed.
Ian Mahinmi – Out, Tiago Splitter – Out, Kris Humphries – Doubtful, Jameer Nelson – Out, John Henson – Out, OJ Mayo – Out, Darrell Arthur – Doubtful-