Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Rockets vs. Suns – With a new head coach in the building we could see a resurgence of Markieff Morris. Morris went off last game and will have another positive matchup tonight. With a total of 214 this game is the highest on a short slate. I love Harden for the Rockets and think that Morris/Booker will make good value plays from the Suns.
LOW O/U – Knicks vs. Pistons – Out of the 4 games on slate tonight this 204 point total is the lowest. Obviously, there are some plays in this one with a limited slate, but it will be more post heavy. Melo is in play for the Knicks based on a high usage rate. I love a Drummond/Jackson stack tonight with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope possibly sitting out.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Lakers vs. Pelicans – This game isn’t quite as fast as the Rockets game, but it is higher paced. With a projected game pace of 99 this one will be all about the post, as Anthony Davis and Julius Randle battle it out. Davis could have a monster night in a positive matchup. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Jrue Holiday had a nice line as he has been handling most of the ball handling duties for the Pelicans.
LOW PACE – Raptors vs. Trailblazers – With a projected game pace of 95.3 this is the slowest pace on the night. Both teams are led offensively by guards, but a lot of shots seem to miss the basket. We should see missed shots and rebounds galore in this matchup. For the Raps I like Demar and Lowry. For the Trailblazers it is still the Damian Lillard show, with a sprinkle of CJ McCollum on top.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Jrue Holiday vs. D’Angelo Russell – Holiday gets the 30th ranked Lakers tonight. The Lakers haven’t been able to shut down PGs all season. Holiday put up 35 DK points against a great San Antonio team during the last game. He has been getting more of the burn due to Tyreke being a little hobbled up. I love where he comes in at tonight.
AVOID – Patrick Beverley vs. Archie Goodwin – Out of all the starting PGs tonight Beverley is the one that should come in at just right around value. Yes he gets a positive matchup, but his offensive usage rate just isn’t that high. I think he hits value, but I don’t think he gets you enough DK points to win a GPP.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – James Harden vs. Devin Booker – Harden, AKA The Beard, is the highest priced player tonight, but he is still the Beard. I have him projected at 50+ DK points and even feel like he could exceed that total. I’m not shaving at all tonight!
AVOID – Terrence Ross vs. CJ McCollum – James Johnson is out tonight which should give Ross some more playing time at the 3. However, if he gets more time there he will have to matchup with Aminu. I just don’t think he will get the opportunities to score high tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – PJ Tucker vs. Trevor Ariza- Tucker is getting a lot more opportunity with Warren hobbled up. The Rockets are ranked 30th against SFs. He should hit value tonight and may have an opportunity to exceed.
AVOID – Alonzo Gee vs. Lakers SF- Gee has been getting a nice clip of minutes lately, but hasn’t exactly produced. He had a terrible game last game and is only projected around 15 DK points tonight. I just like better options tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Anthony Davis vs. Julius Randle – Highest projected big man on the night and a lock to get over 40 if he stays healthy…i’m in!
AVOID – Ed Davis vs. Luis Scola – The Raptors are ranked 6th against opposing PFs. Davis is a great player, but just doesn’t get the minutes he needs to produce. I think he comes in under value again tonight.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Andre Drummond vs. Robin Lopez –With KCP out more scoring opportunities will go Drummonds way. The Knicks are ranked 15th against opposing Cs. He is projected at 45+ DK points tonight and has an opportunity to exceed.
AVOID – Tyson Chandler vs. Dwight Howard – Chandler has had flashes of the old Chandler this year. However, last game it was fast ball in Phoenix and this looks to be the new trend. Howard is a decent defender, but Chandler just seems to have aged out of his game.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Anthony Davis ($10,000) – The Brow went absolute ham during his last game posting 60 DK points. He has a better matchup tonight and a great opportunity to put up even more DK points tonight. I have him projected at about 50+ DK points, but barring injury and anything devastating he could see even more tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Stanley Johnson ($4,400) – Stanley has come on nicely this year and should get some extra burn tonight. KCP is down with an injury which means a lot of the “extra” usage should go Stan’s way. On a short slate we sometimes have to dig for value, but tonight Johnson should potentially hit value.
Dud of the Night
Ryan Anderson ($6,400) – I just going to leave this right here until his price drops. Anderson doesn’t have high dollar value unless Anthony Davis sits. Anthony Davis does sit quite a bit with injury, but he is in the line tonight. Fair market value for Anderson you ask…$4800.
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Doubtful, Noah Vonleh – Doubtful, James Johnson – Out, Terrence Jones – Out, Montrezl Harrell – Out, Tyreke Evans – Doubtful