Game Flow Notes

Vegas Lines

HIGH O/URockets vs. Suns – With a new head coach in the building we could see a resurgence of Markieff Morris. Morris went off last game and will have another positive matchup tonight. With a total of 214 this game is the highest on a short slate. I love Harden for the Rockets and think that Morris/Booker will make good value plays from the Suns.

LOW O/UKnicks vs. Pistons – Out of the 4 games on slate tonight this 204 point total is the lowest. Obviously, there are some plays in this one with a limited slate, but it will be more post heavy. Melo is in play for the Knicks based on a high usage rate. I love a Drummond/Jackson stack tonight with Kentavious Caldwell-Pope possibly sitting out.

Pace of Play

Away TeamAway PaceHome TeamHome PaceAvg Pace
New York97.80Detroit100.2099.00
L.A.Lakers99.50New Orleans99.7099.60

HIGH PACELakers vs. Pelicans – This game isn’t quite as fast as the Rockets game, but it is higher paced. With a projected game pace of 99 this one will be all about the post, as Anthony Davis and Julius Randle battle it out. Davis could have a monster night in a positive matchup. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Jrue Holiday had a nice line as he has been handling most of the ball handling duties for the Pelicans.

LOW PACERaptors vs. Trailblazers – With a projected game pace of 95.3 this is the slowest pace on the night. Both teams are led offensively by guards, but a lot of shots seem to miss the basket. We should see missed shots and rebounds galore in this matchup. For the Raps I like Demar and Lowry. For the Trailblazers it is still the Damian Lillard show, with a sprinkle of CJ McCollum on top.

Defense vs. Position

Point Guard Matchups

1TOR43.67 POR1LAL49.79 NOP
2NYK44.79 DET2PHX49.56 HOU
3POR44.00 TOR3HOU46.42 PHX

TARGETJrue Holiday vs. D’Angelo Russell – Holiday gets the 30th ranked Lakers tonight. The Lakers haven’t been able to shut down PGs all season. Holiday put up 35 DK points against a great San Antonio team during the last game. He has been getting more of the burn due to Tyreke being a little hobbled up. I love where he comes in at tonight.

AVOIDPatrick Beverley vs. Archie Goodwin – Out of all the starting PGs tonight Beverley is the one that should come in at just right around value. Yes he gets a positive matchup, but his offensive usage rate just isn’t that high. I think he hits value, but I don’t think he gets you enough DK points to win a GPP.

Shooting Guard Matchups

1TOR37.25 POR1LAL42.79 NOP
2NYK37.35 DET2PHX41.64 HOU
3DET37.65 NYK3NOP41.15 LAL

TARGETJames Harden vs. Devin Booker – Harden, AKA The Beard, is the highest priced player tonight, but he is still the Beard. I have him projected at 50+ DK points and even feel like he could exceed that total. I’m not shaving at all tonight!

AVOIDTerrence Ross vs. CJ McCollum – James Johnson is out tonight which should give Ross some more playing time at the 3. However, if he gets more time there he will have to matchup with Aminu. I just don’t think he will get the opportunities to score high tonight.

Small Forward Matchups

1DET34.86 NYK1HOU44.97 PHX
2TOR37.29 POR2LAL42.30 NOP
3POR37.55 TOR3PHX42.24 HOU

TARGET PJ Tucker vs. Trevor Ariza- Tucker is getting a lot more opportunity with Warren hobbled up. The Rockets are ranked 30th against SFs. He should hit value tonight and may have an opportunity to exceed.

AVOIDAlonzo Gee vs. Lakers SF- Gee has been getting a nice clip of minutes lately, but hasn’t exactly produced. He had a terrible game last game and is only projected around 15 DK points tonight. I just like better options tonight.

Power Forward Matchups

1TOR42.78 POR1HOU50.64 PHX
2NYK43.16 DET2LAL47.11 NOP
3DET44.16 NYK3POR47.00 TOR

TARGETAnthony Davis vs. Julius Randle – Highest projected big man on the night and a lock to get over 40 if he stays healthy…i’m in!

AVOIDEd Davis vs. Luis Scola – The Raptors are ranked 6th against opposing PFs. Davis is a great player, but just doesn’t get the minutes he needs to produce. I think he comes in under value again tonight.

Center Matchups

RankBest DvCFPPGAOppRankWorst DvCFPPGAOpp
1PHX46.68 HOU1NOP53.14 LAL
2NYK48.74 DET2LAL51.22 NOP
3TOR48.86 POR3DET49.61 NYK

TARGETAndre Drummond vs. Robin Lopez –With KCP out more scoring opportunities will go Drummonds way. The Knicks are ranked 15th against opposing Cs. He is projected at 45+ DK points tonight and has an opportunity to exceed.

AVOID Tyson Chandler vs. Dwight Howard – Chandler has had flashes of the old Chandler this year. However, last game it was fast ball in Phoenix and this looks to be the new trend. Howard is a decent defender, but Chandler just seems to have aged out of his game.

Lineup Quick Hits

Superstar Worth Paying For

Anthony Davis ($10,000) – The Brow went absolute ham during his last game posting 60 DK points. He has a better matchup tonight and a great opportunity to put up even more DK points tonight. I have him projected at about 50+ DK points, but barring injury and anything devastating he could see even more tonight.

Save Big Bucks by Drafting

Stanley Johnson ($4,400) – Stanley has come on nicely this year and should get some extra burn tonight. KCP is down with an injury which means a lot of the “extra” usage should go Stan’s way. On a short slate we sometimes have to dig for value, but tonight Johnson should potentially hit value.

Dud of the Night

Ryan Anderson ($6,400) – I just going to leave this right here until his price drops. Anderson doesn’t have high dollar value unless Anthony Davis sits. Anthony Davis does sit quite a bit with injury, but he is in the line tonight. Fair market value for Anderson you ask…$4800.

Out/Doubtful Tonight

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Doubtful, Noah Vonleh – Doubtful, James Johnson – Out, Terrence Jones – Out, Montrezl Harrell – Out, Tyreke Evans – Doubtful