Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Celtics vs. Knicks – Short slate and no Warriors means the scoring total will have to go to the Celtics. The Celtics have been a fast pace team this season and such has lead to their higher scoring. With a total of 206.5 this is the highest total on the night. Carmelo gets up for Celtics games and has been projected to hit value. On Boston’s side it should be the IT2 show as he gets a nice matchup and is coming off a good performance.
LOW O/U – Raptors vs. Suns – What the what? I know the Suns in the lowest scoring game is a little bit of an oxymoron. With a total of 200.5 this is the lowest scoring on the evening. The Raptors should show us a lot of Lowry and Derozan to start, but could end up giving us more Corey Joseph if the game gets out of hand. The Suns have fired Hornacek, but still have no identity, so I honestly don’t know who to turn to in this one. You can take a flier on Archie Goodwin, but he has been a let down over the last three games.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Timberwolves vs. Lakers – You want blazing speed look no further than Ricky Rubio’s Timberwolves. With a projected game pace of 97.7 this is one of the faster games on the night. The Wolves present us with a lot of value and basically put Rubio, Anthony-Towns, Dieng, and Lavine all in play. The Lakers are in practice mode, so we could potentially see a nice dose of Julius Randle and D’Angelo Russell.
LOW PACE – Bucks vs. Trailblazers – Oh the Bucks, on of the slowest pace teams in the league. With a 95.5 projected game pace, this game will probably be made up of a lot of missed shots and rebounds. I like Monroe and Parker with Henson out. For the Trailblazers it will once again be the guard show as Lillard and McCollum look to light up the score board.
CHECK OUT MORE NBA CONTENT FROM THE PLAYBOOK TONIGHT:
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Damian Lillard vs. Michael Carter-Williams – Lillard is the headliner for the Trailblazers. He is also really good and has a great shot at value every night. The matchup isn’t great as the Bucks are 8th against opposing PGs, but his usage is so high that he should hit and possibly exceed value tonight. During their 1st matchup this season he put up 35.5 DK points.
AVOID – Jose Calderon vs. Isaiah Thomas – IT2 is a top notch defender and one of the best PGs in the game right now. The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs. Calderon is questionable, but if he plays will have a tough time against the little man tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – DeMar DeRozan vs. Devin Booker – The Beard is the top SG play of the night, but DeRozan comes in right underneath him and should exceed value tonight. The Suns are terrible against SGs and rank 27th in the league. DeRozan should have his way with the rookie tonight.
AVOID – Arron Afflalo vs. Avery Bradley – Both of these guys are defensive minded. Bradley is a little better on the offensive end and should see a little more usage. The Celtics lock down opposing guards so this should be an avoided matchup.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Andrew Wiggins vs. Kobe Bryant (SG) (or Lakers Starting SF)- Wiggins gets a great matchup against the Lakers tonight. As a team the Lakers are ranked 26th against opposing SFs. Wiggins had a couple of bad performances in a row, but should right the ship tonight and possibly exceed value.
AVOID – Giannis Antetokounmpo vs. Al Farouq-Aminu- Aminu is a great SF defender and has maintained a high level of play all season. The Greek Freak will see a high usage level, but ultimately should exceed value. I like the Bucks bigs tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Chris Bosh vs. Clint Capela – This should be a common thing right now, play PF’s against the 30th ranked Rockets.
AVOID – Markieff Morris vs. Luis Scola – Scola and the Raptors are ranked 8th against opposing PFs. Morris has seen a bump in his playing time due to injury, but should only see about 25 DK points tonight.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Roy Hibbert – KAT has been on fire lately and has been posting 50 burgers like Boogie. Hibbert is terrible, mainly because he is older. I think KAT can put up another strong performance tonight.
AVOID – Tyson Chandler vs. Jonas Valanciunas- I am staying away from both of these guys, simply because I love KAT and they are projected low. Chandler can be a rebound machine, but Jo Val will test that tonight. I just like other options here.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
James Harden ($10,300) – The Beard quietly posted 76 fantasy points during his last outing. The competition will be a little tougher tonight, but the usage won’t go down. Look for Harden to hit value and potentially drop 50 DK points tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Corey Joseph ($3,900) – It is hard to find value on short slates and most of the time you have to turn to the first guys off of the bench. Joseph has seen over 20 minutes in the last 5 games. In 4 out of those 5 games he hit value. He has a positive matchup tonight in a game that could allow him to see more playing time as the Raptors take on the injury riddled Suns. I look for him to earn about 20 DK points tonight.
Dud of the Night
Khris Middleton ($7,100) – Middleton is still projected close to value tonight, but his last two outings have been terrible. He has a decent matchup with C.J. McCollum, but unfortunately until he proves he has turned things I am a little uneasy about playing him. A lot of things could factor into the downswing, but one of the most obvious is the uptick in usage from Jabari Parker.
Nikola Pekovic – Doubtful, Kevin Martin – Doubtful, Kevin Garnett – Doubtful, Hassan Whiteside – Out, Dwight Howard – Suspended-