Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Timberwolves vs. Mavericks- this game has an over under of 214. This should be a fast pace game and include a lot of scoring. For the Timberwolves I like Rubio and Dieng a lot in this match up. For the Mavericks Dirk should once again be the top scorer.
LOW O/U – Heat vs. Knicks- The total in this one is 205 points. I like Carmelo Anthony a lot for the Knicks as he will see an uptick in usage. For the Heat it will be interesting to see who plays and who sits. With Bosh out Dwyane Wade and Goran Dragic make for a good value plays.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Trail Blazers vs. Pacers – The Damian Lillard show has helped up the pace in Portland. The projected game pace in this one is 99.1. It was surprising to see no pace totals over 100 today. Lillard and McCollum are both in play for the Blazers. For the Pacers I like Paul George to lead the scoring charge and Ian Mahinmi to be a sneaky value play.
LOW PACE – Timberwolves vs. Mavericks – I wanted to throw this one is as a caveat. The highest scoring game on the night has the slowest pace. The projected pace total in this one is 95.4. I think Rubio will push the pace a little more than as listed, but this one will be interesting to watch.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Damian Lillard vs. George Hill – Lillard is the Trail Blazers. His usage is out the roof and his ability is there to match. The Pacer’s aren’t bad against opposing PGs, but they will have their hands full will Damian.
AVOID – Jose Calderon vs. Goran Dragic – The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Calderon is a role player at best in New York. The options at the PG spot are unlimited and Calderon doesn’t quite fit in.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – CJ McCollum vs. Monta Ellis – McCollum has been great alongside Lillard this season. I have him projected at 30+ DK points tonight. Ellis is ranked 17th against opposing SGs and will have a tough time tonight.
AVOID – Arron Affalo vs. Dwyane Wade – D Wade is 3rd against opposing SGs. Affalo has the same issue as Calderon, usage. With Melo on the court there aren’t enough points to go around.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Paul George vs. Al Farouq-Aminu – This is always the confusing thing about DvP. Aminu is a great defender and is 6th against opposing SFs. George is the scoring for the Pacers and should put up 40+ DK points tonight.
AVOID – James Johnson vs. Marcus Morris- I’ll simply say this…if you play James Johnson tonight, good luck!
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Gorgui Dieng vs. Dirk Nowitzki – Gorgui has used his starting spot to catalyst him into a great position. The Mavs have been terrible against PF’s all season. I think Gorgui hams out tonight and puts up 35+.
AVOID – The Heat PF vs. Kristaps Porzingis – Whether Josh McRoberts and Amare get most of the burn it won’t matter. Kristaps has been a great defender all season and is ranked 5th against opposing PFs. I am staying away from this match up tonight.
TARGET – Karl Anthony-Towns vs. Zaza Pachulia – Pachulia is actually a decent defender. Towns has been killing it lately and should go for broke again tonight. I think KAT puts up the highest scoring total this evening.
AVOID – Robin Lopez vs. Hassan Whiteside- Whiteside is ranked 6th against opposing Cs. Ro Lo has had more success with Fisher gone, but he still has to compete for usage. I am all in on KAT and Vuc tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Karl Anthony-Towns (8,500)- I always look at this spot and say who can get over 50 DK points tonight. Only guy I think has a legit shot is KAT. Fire away at the C spot.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Ian Mahinmi (5,000) – I mentioned him in my paragraph up top. His usage, minutes, and match up all scream yes tonight. I think he will fit perfectly in a GPP winning lineup.
Dud of the Night
Andrew Wiggins (6,300) – Wiggins had some monster ball hogging moments last night that helped him hit value. I think the matchup will get him tonight and I think we see less than 30 DK points.
CJ Miles – Out, Spencer Dinwiddie – Doubtful, Kevin Martin – Doubtful, Kevin Garnett – Doubtful