Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Thunder vs. Mavericks – In a battle of the Southwest division, we see the highest total of the night. The total in this one is 215 and may even go over. The Thunder are reeling from a loss to a LeBron heavy Cavs team. Westbrook and Durant will both be looking to put up monster DK points tonight. On the Mavs side of the ball, I like where the guards come in at. I believe that Deron Williams (if he plays) and Wes Matthews can both be sneaky good plays tonight.
LOW O/U – Knicks vs. Pacers- This one isn’t technically low scoring, but it is the lowest scoring on the night. Carmelo says that the Knicks need to toughen up and play more aggressive. We will see if this comes to fruition tonight with a 202.5 total. I like Carmelo based on his ability to shoot at a high volume. I also like Paul George in a matchup against Melo whose defense has always been a major question mark.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Spurs vs. Kings – It’s very interesting to see the Spurs slide into the highest pace game tonight, but this is all thanks to the Kings. With a projected game pace of 100.8, this game should be speedy. I have to pick rather chalky because I feel like the chalk for each team will produce tonight. For the Kings, it’s all Cousins and Rondo. For the Spurs the matchups for Kawhi and LMA are fantastic and both should be considered tonight.
LOW PACE – Timberwolves vs. Raptors – The Raptors have been one of the slower teams all season. With a projected game pace of 94.7 this is the slowest of the night, but it still doesn’t scream stay away. I like where Towns and Dieng come in at for the Wolves. On the Raps side of the ball look to Lowry for offense and a potential 40 DK point game.
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Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Mike Conley vs. D’Angelo Russell – The Lakers are terrible against PGs. Well…the Lakers are terrible against every position. Conley has been forced to increase his offensive role with Gasol out indefinitely, and he has a great shot to hit 35+ DK points tonight.
AVOID – Emmanuel Mudiay vs. Chris Paul – CP3 has always been great defensively and is ranked 4th against opposing guards. Mudiay has had flashes of “good” (not great) games this year, but he is still inevitably playing like a rookie. I think there are a lot better options tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Wes Matthews vs. Dion Waiters – The Thunder are 23rd against opposing SGs and have had trouble covering them all season. Matthews is projecting low, but I just think the matchup and price are too good to pass up. I think he goes for 25+ DK points tonight.
AVOID – Klay Thompson vs. Dwyane Wade – Wade wants to beat the Warriors and vowed the ultimate revenge. The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing SGs and a ticked off Wade only exemplifies this. I think Thompson will have all he can handle tonight against one of the league’s oldest elite players.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – LeBron James vs. Nicolas Batum (SG)- Ticked off LeBron syndrome just won’t stop. He had a bad outing his last game, but that was coming off of a back-to-back in which he went bonkers. He always likes to shine against MJ’s team and should look to shine a lot tonight.
AVOID – Robert Covington vs. Marcus Morris- The Pistons are ranked 3rd against opposing SFs. Covington is so hot and cold it can be frustrating. He failed to reach value in a better matchup last night. The minutes will be there, but I don’t think the scoring will.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kevin Love vs. Marvin Williams – K-Love surprised everybody when he played in the last game. He should come out firing again tonight in a phenomenal matchup. My beloved Hornets seem to forget there is a PF position on the court. I think he goes for 40+ fantasy points tonight.
AVOID – Dirk Nowitzki vs. Serge Ibaka – Old man Dirk has put together a nice season, but it seems the legs are starting to wear down. Ibaka is a great defender and has consistently shut down opposing PFs. I would take Dirk at $5K, but $6K is out of my price range.
TARGET – Andre Drummond vs. Jahlil Okafor – The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs (dead last). Drummond has taken advantage of that twice already this year, averaging 52.5 DK points per game in those two tilts against Philly. Assuming this game stays relatively close, Drummond should have a big night.
AVOID – Jonas Valanciunas vs. Karl-Anthony Towns – Towns has worked his way up in the top 10 of defending opposing centers. He has had a great rookie campaign and seems to keep getting better. I like KAT and I think J-Val bows out tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,900) – The only way the Kings stay in this game is on the back of Boogie. He looked like his tailbone had healed last night and will look to post a 60+ DK point game against the Spurs. The matchup is a little intimidating considering how good the Spurs can be but Boogie is averaging a whopping 54.2 DK points per game at home this season.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Matt Barnes ($5,000) – Do we have a revenge game on our hands? I doubt it (he left the Lakers a long time ago), but he will see a lot of usage against a weak team. I think Barnes hits 30 fantasy points tonight.
Dud of the Night
Ricky Rubio ($6,400) – Rubio has been good in the month of February, but hasn’t faced Kyle Lowry yet. Lowry has been great defensively this year and will look to lock Rubio down tonight. There are better options at PG despite Rubio’s recent success with 37+ DK points in three of his last four.
Injuries to Watch
The list below isn’t comprehensive and focuses only on recent injury news. Be sure to follow injury news throughout the night
|OUT||Spencer Hawes (CHA), Kevin Garnett (MIN), Matt Bonner (SAS), Stanley Johnson (DET), Nemanja Bjelica (MIN)|
|DOUBTFUL||Tony Allen (MEM), Iman Shumpert (CLE), Anthony Tolliver (DET), TJ McConnell (PHI)|
|QUESTIONABLE||Spencer Dinwiddie (DET), Jameer Nelson (DEN), Kawhi Leonard (SAS), Gary Neal (WAS)|