Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Warriors vs. Hawks – High scoring and a single digit spread…that’s a fantasy basketball players dream. The total in this game is an enticing 223.5. With Steph leading the charge for the Warriors and Millsap trying to keep his Hawks in the game this one should be fast pace. I like Steph and Draymond to score for the Warriors. For the Hawks it will be all about the post as Horford and Millsap have to play well to make this one competitive.
LOW O/U – Pacers vs. Heat- Chris Bosh has to sit this one out due to clotting again, I am really hoping this won’t be the end of his career. The Heat have been a slower team this season and it has shown based on their totals. With a total of 199, this is the lowest on the night. Obviously Paul George is in play, but for the Heat it will all come down to whether or not Dwyane Wade suits up.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Suns vs. Clippers – This is actually the 2nd highest pace game of the night. With a projected game pace of 100.6 it will be quick. The only issue is the spread in this game. With a 17 point spread it seems like it will get out of hand quick. I still think that CP3 and Deandre hit value, but it could bid well for bench players as this one should get out of hand.
LOW PACE – Raptors vs. Knicks – Just like the Heat, the Knicks have slowed it way down this year. The triangle offense has helped them pull out some games, but the honestly haven’t been that impressive. Melo should take his normal compliment of shots, with Kristaps filtering in any extras. The projected game pace is 93.8. Lowry and Derozan should both be in play as they get a positive matchups.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Kyle Lowry vs. Jose Calderon – The Knicks are ranked 17th against opposing PGs. Lowry has been coming it right at value lately, but he has two things going for him tonight. He has a great price and he usually crushes the Knicks. I think he goes for 40+ DK points tonight and is a solid PG play.
AVOID – George Hill vs. Goran Dragic – The Heat have been great against opposing PGs and are 2nd in the league. Hill is a good role player, but hardly ever puts up huge numbers. I have him projected at about 25 DK points tonight, but he will have to work for those.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Khris Middleton vs. Lou Williams – The Lakers are terrible against every position. Unfortunately this just seems to be the case for every Byron Scott team. Middleton has been great the past two months and shouldn’t be limited against the 28th ranked Lakers.
AVOID – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. J.R. Smith – The Cavs are ranked 6th against opposing SGs. KCP is just coming off of a decent performance, but should have a tough time tonight. I have him projected at about 25 DK points tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – LeBron James vs. Marcus Morris- LBJ has 4 50+ DK games in the past 4. The Pistons aren’t bad against SFs, but LeBron is LeBron. The King should continue to put up big numbers tonight.
AVOID – Luol Deng vs. Paul George- Deng has put up some huge games with Bosh and Wade on the shelf. If Wade plays today his usage goes down and his matchup isn’t really that great. George and the Pacers are ranked 5th against opposing SFs, which means look elsewhere.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Gorgui Dieng vs. Amir Johnson – Dieng has put up some monster numbers lately and has a phenomenal matchup tonight. I think he easily hits 30+ DK points and reaches value. The Celtics are 28th against opposing PFs, which is also in Dieng’s favor tonight.
AVOID – Miami Heat PF vs. Jordan Hill – Without Bosh you would think we would see some value from the Heat PF position. Amare’ has done a good job fitting in, but his usage isn’t high enough to make him a great play. You could also make a case for McRoberts, but he will face usage and lower minutes. I am just staying away based on uncertainty.
TARGET – Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Jared Sullinger – The Celtics are down Kelly Olynyk, which has jeopardized their big man depth. KAT has been a 40 DK point machine and is projected at that again tonight. The rookie has made me a believer.
AVOID – Jonas Valanciunas vs. Robin Lopez – Lopez pulled the wool over my eyes yesterday and put up a good showing. He has always been decent on defense and is ranked 14th against opposing Cs. JVal is usually a pretty consistent guy, but I think he comes in slightly under value tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Stephen Curry ($10,700) – Not only is the Chef in the highest scoring matchup of the night he has also had two mediocre game. He gets a positive matchup tonight against the Hawks and will look to right the ship. Even though he carries the high price, he should easily hit value. I also think that he exceeds 50+ DK points tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Phil Pressey ($3,000) – We are digging deep with this play tonight, but Pressey is on a 10 day with the Suns and is trying to prove his worth. He played 28 minutes during the last game and put up 22 DK points. He has the ability to replicate this performance tonight and at minimum price he makes for a great value punt in a GPP.
Dud of the Night
Devin Booker ($6,000) – Booker has cooled off after his string of 40 point games. His usage and minutes are still there, but the shots just aren’t falling. He gets a tough matchup tonight against the Celtics who are consistently one of the best teams against opposing SGs. I think there are better options tonight.
This is a preliminary list. Be sure to double check news as lineup lock approaches
Mo Williams – Doubtful, Anthony Tolliver – Out, Kevin Garnett – Doubtful, John Henson – Doubtful, Jerryd Bayless – Doubtful