Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Wizards vs. Thunder – Some will say that KD is auditioning for free agency tonight against his home squad the Washington Wizards. I say that there will be fantasy points galore in this one. With a total of 222 the buckets will be falling tonight. KD and Westy both have a strong shot at exceeding 50 DK points with. For the Wizards, Wall and Gortat will look to rival the play of the two superstars to keep them in the game. The spread is under 10 which also means this game may be surprisingly close.
LOW O/U – Bulls vs. Jazz – Bang the boards and then bang your head against the wall. With a 194.5 total, this game comes in at the lowest scoring of the night. This one will be all about defense as the Jazz have been one of the top ranked defensive teams all season. Butler and Pau make for strong consistent cash plays. Hayward and Gobert make for great GPP plays as both guys may have the ability to exceed value.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Bucks vs. Kings – The Kings headline the second fastest game of the night coming in slightly under the Wiz/Thunder game. With a projected game pace of 100.3 this will be a typical Kings game. Boogie should put up monster numbers and Rondo will hand out a boatload of assists. They will do all this and then eventually lose. On the other side of the court Monroe and Parker have positive matchups and both should hit value, while Middleton has the ability to decimate a weak SG defense and post huge numbers.
LOW PACE – Magic vs. Spurs – The Spurs have slowed everyone, but the defending World Champs down this season. They will look to lock down the Magic tonight with a projected game pace of 94.5. The Magic really don’t have a positive matchup to exploit, but the Spurs should be able to get Kawhi rolling and you may be able to find value with Tim Duncan being out.
Check out more NBA research content for tonight:
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Kyle Lowry vs. Emmanuel Mudiay – Any PG versus Denver is a play in my book, but Lowry makes for a great play tonight. He is projected slightly under Westbrook and Wall, but for a lot cheaper. The Nuggets are ranked 28th against opposing PGs which should give Lowry the ability to put up 40+ DK points tonight.
AVOID – Elfrid Payton vs. Tony Parker – Payton has been off of his game lately and has faced the wrath of the “Skiles”. Until he turns the car around and starts heading in the right direction I think there are a lot better options tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Demar Derozan vs. Gary Harris – The theme for tonight is play guards in Toronto. The Nuggets are terrible against guards and Derozan also has the ability to put up 40+ DK points tonight. If you are looking for a mini stack look no further than Lowry and Derozan tonight.
AVOID – Victor Oladipo vs. Danny Green – Oladipo has seen his minutes go up, but unfortunately hasn’t seen his production rise. He gets the 1st ranked Spurs tonight and should be held to under value. The Magic have the ability to be a decent team, but the pieces just don’t seem to click.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Kevin Durant vs. Otto Porter- Usage, total, matchup and home town team. This one has a big night for KD written all over it!
AVOID – Aaron Gordon vs. Kawhi Leonard- Gordon has been a great source of value over the past couple of weeks. He has finally meshed into the dysfunctional Magic lineup. He gets the best defender in the league tonight and will have to work for everything he gets. I am looking elsewhere for SF value.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – DeMarcus Cousins vs. Jabari Parker – Boogie is questionable with an ankle injury tonight, but should suit up. He gets a great matchup against the Bucks who struggle with PFs. If he goes I look for a 50 burger from Boogie tonight.
UPDATE: DeMarcus Cousins is OUT tonight with an ankle injury.
AVOID – Zach Randolph vs. Anthony Davis – It seems like the days of the ZBo have finally come to an end. Zach is coming off of the bench which has about diminished his value. He hasn’t exceeded value in 10 games. Small ball in Memphis isn’t helping his cause.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Marc Gasol vs. Alexis Anjica – Gasol is questionable with a knee injury, but if he goes he will dominate the Pelicans. Remember every center dominates the Pelicans!
AVOID – Pau Gasol vs. Rudy Gobert- I know, Pau on an avoid list. Well he gets the 1st ranked team against opposing Cs tonight. He also should see a slower pace game which will slow down his opportunities. I think he still makes for a good cash play because he is consistent, but he shouldn’t exceed value tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook ($11,000) – Westy is an amazing player. His style is a lot different from Chef Curry’s, but his results are a lot of the same. He has put up over 55 DK points the last three outings. He matches up against John Wall and the pace should be fast. I have him projected at 50+ DK points tonight, but wouldn’t be surprised to see him put up more.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Shane Larkin and Wayne Ellington ($3,700) – Here are two guys that come in at very cheap and have the ability to hit value tonight. Both guys have entered the starting lineup and have had some good games. They have positive matchups tonight and should both put up around 20 DK points.
Dud of the Night
Monta Ellis ($7,000) – Monta has been on fire lately, posting 50+ DK points over the last two games. However, tonight he gets a tough matchup with the Cavs. The Cavs have picked up the pace under new coach Ty Lue, but I just don’t see Ellis getting the same opportunities. I think he comes in at right around 30 DK points tonight or slightly under value.
Ian Mahinmi – Out, Tim Duncan – Out-