Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Pelicans vs. Thunder – There are two games tonight and this one happens to have the highest total. The total in this game is 220.5. The Pelicans are plagued by injuries and will rely heavily on Anthony Davis for points. The Thunder will rely on their two superstars Westy and KD. Both guys should easily be the top scorers on the night.
LOW O/U – Wizards vs. Bucks- This is the 2nd game on the evening. With a total of 211 it is surprising that the Bucks are in a game with a scoring total over 200. This one has some nice value in it and will probably have a player that produces a GPP winner tonight. For the Wiz, I love Wall, Beal, and Gortat. For the Bucks we are going to have to wait until closer to tip-off to see what Kidd will do. If he starts Plumlee tonight it could be interesting.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
|New Orleans||99.60||Oklahoma City||100.90||100.25|
HIGH PACE – Pelicans vs. Thunder – The highest total usually means the highest pace. With a projected game pace of 99.7 this one should be pushing the limit. The pace will be controlled by Westbrook and Holiday both of whom have an opportunity to hit value.
LOW PACE – Wizards vs. Bucks – The Bucks have been one of the slower teams this season. With John Wall suiting up across from them it will up the pace a little, but it still won’t make it blazing. With a projected game pace of 98.5 this is only slightly slower than the Thunder game.
Defense vs. Position
|Team||Opp||Opp vs PG||Opp vs SG||Opp vs SF||Opp vs PF||Opp vs C|
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Russell Westbrook vs. Jrue Holiday – Westy is the highest projected player on the night and gets a great matchup. The Pelicans are thin at the guard spot, so Holiday and Cole should get a lot of run. Westbrook should dominate tonight.
AVOID – Michael Carter-Williams vs. John Wall – MCW was forced to come off of the bench during the last game. OJ Mayo got the start, but didn’t produce a lot. Wall and the Wiz are 16th against opposing PGs, but the Jason Kidd uncertainty is what backs me off of MCW tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Khris Middleton vs. Bradley Beal – These are your top ranked SGs tonight. If you have to play one that should be consistent and get you points here are your options. I’m not opposed to running either guy out tonight.
AVOID – Dion Waiters vs. Norris Cole (PG) – Waiters gets a positive matchup, but doesn’t have the usage. For the Thunder it is all about Westy and KD. Waiters is only projected at about 20 DK points tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kevin Durant vs. Dante Cunningham- If this isn’t obvious I don’t know what is. KD is the top ranked SF on the slate. I have him projected at over 50 DK points tonight.
AVOID – Otto Porter vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo- This matchup is interesting, because I could honestly still see myself rolling out either guy. The Bucks are ranked 25th against opposing SFs, but the usage is what limits Porter tonight (especially with Beal back.)
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Anthony Davis vs. Serge Ibaka – Serge is a great defender, but the ball runs through Davis in New Orleans. Serge is ranked 5th against opposing PFs, but if the Pelicans want to win they will have to utilize Davis early and often tonight.
AVOID – Nene Hilario vs. Jabari Parker – The Wiz PFs have had a rough season. Nene can put up 25+ DK points, but he is so inconsistent it makes it difficult to follow. I just think there are better options tonight.
TARGET – Greg Monroe vs. Marcin Gortat – If you are looking for Cs, both of these guys are the play. Monroe didn’t get the start last game due to Jason Kidd’s horrendous coaching. I have both of these guys projected at 25+ DK points tonight.
AVOID – Alexis Ajinca vs. Steven Adams – Adams is ranked 5th against opposing Cs. The Pelicans are terrible at the C position. 13 projected DK points won’t cut it tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook ($11,200) – Westbrook hasn’t scored under 50 DK points in the last 8 games. I doubt he will start the trend of under 50 tonight. I think he hits value and then exceeds it by quite a bit. The only issue is finding a way to fit Westy in tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Steven Adams ($4,300) – Adams gets a great matchup against the 29th ranked Pelicans. I am not saying he will put up a 50 burger tonight, but exceeding value is a definite possibility. I will have some exposure to Adams tonight.
Dud of the Night
Serge Ibaka ($5,300) – Ibaka has been getting it done on the defensive boards, but has struggled offensively this season. AD isn’t really a tough matchup, but Ibaka’s offensive usage just scares me. I am looking elsewhere tonight.
John Henson – Out, Bryce Dejean-Jones – Doubtful-