Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Warriors vs. Suns – The Warriors come in at the highest total on the night with 220. The problem with this game is the spread. With a 16 point spread this sounds like a blowout. Steph and Draymond are both projected high, but this could differ due to minutes. On the Suns side Morris has been a nice play as of late, but I am just uncertain how many minutes all the starters will see.
LOW O/U – Jazz vs. Pelicans- We spoke the name of the Jazz and they are once again the lowest total on the night. With a 195 total, there shouldn’t be a lot of scoring. Favors and Gobert are in play for the Jazz. On the Pelicans side this should be all about the Brow. Anthony Davis and Jrue Holiday should hit value and make for nice plays tonight.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Kings vs. 76ers – This game has a 4.5 spread, which means that it should be surprisingly closer than you would think. The highest projected player in this game is Boogie and he should dominate. For the 76ers it will be all about General Smith, as Ish and Nerlens look to carry the load for a terrible 76ers team.
LOW PACE – Grizzlies vs. Nets – The Grizzlies got some bad news as they found out that Marc Gasol is out indefinitely with a broken right foot. They will have to throw ZBo into the lineup and he makes for a nice play tonight. The projected game pace in this one is 94.2 and could potentially be slower as the Griz will look to slow the pace and hammer the Nets down low.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Damian Lillard vs. Patrick Beverley – Lillard put up a nice 50 burger his last game out. Tonight he gets Beverley who has sort of fallen off his pedestal as a great defender. The Rockets are ranked 19th against opposing PGs and Lillard has a very high usage rate tonight.
AVOID – Norris Cole vs. Raul Neto – The Jazz have been great defensively against all positions this season. Cole has been getting minutes for the injured Pelicans. He is priced at $5,500 which seems rather high for a 2nd tier guard. The Jazz are 7th against opposing PGs and will look to shut Cole down tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSG||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSG||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – James Harden vs. C.J. McCollum – Honestly, I like both of these guys tonight. Harden is coming off of a 60 DK point performance and McCollum has consistently been scoring 30+. They both are in the bottom 15 of the NBA on opposing SG defense.
AVOID – J.J. Redick vs. Avery Bradley – The Celtics are ranked 8th against opposing SGs. Redick has seen an up in usage with Blake Griffin out. However, when he gets a tough matchup it limits the amount of shots he takes. I just think there are better options tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvSF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvSF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – LeBron James vs. Kobe Bryant (SG)- The Lakers are 26th against SFs. The King put up 55+ last game. This will be one of his last opportunities to play against Kobe and he will look to exploit it. I think he goes for as many as possible tonight.
AVOID – Tobias Harris vs. Kawhi Leonard- Harris is questionable with an eye injury. Kawhi is 1st in the league against opposing SFs. It doesn’t matter who suits up for the Magic at SF tonight they will have a tough time.
Power Forward Matchups
|Rank||Best DvPF||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvPF||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Draymond Green vs. Markieff Morris – Draymond let me down last night in an easy matchup. The matchup tonight is a little tougher, but Draymond will want to right the ship. I have him projected at 40+ DK points and think he will put that up in only 3 quarters of usage.
AVOID – Aaron Gordon vs. LaMarcus Aldridge – Usually I would be all over A. Gordon as he makes for a great value play. Tonight he gets the Spurs and LMA. LMA has picked up his defensive prowess this season and is ranked 4th against opposing PFs. I don’t think Gordon has the ability to body the veteran tonight.
|Rank||Best DvC||FPPGA||Opp||Rank||Worst DvC||FPPGA||Opp|
TARGET – Pau Gasol vs. Al Horford – Both of these guys have great matchups tonight. Pau’s usage is out the roof due to Jimmy Butler’s injury. Horford is on the trading block and will look to prove himself. I think we see value out of both Cs tonight.
AVOID – Alexis Ajinca vs. Rudy Gobert – The Jazz are ranked 1st against opposing Cs. I don’t even know if the Pelicans have a C. This is a terrible matchup tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,100) – Boogie had a rough outing against the Cavaliers his last game only posting 29 DK points. Tonight he gets a phenomenal matchup against the 76ers. He will look to dominate Philadelphia’s weak frontcourt and should exceed value. I have him projected at 50+ DK points, but could see him getting even more tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Hollis Thompson ($3,700) – It’s not often we see Hollis Thompson making any list, but he does tonight. Thompson will get a good matchup against the Kings who have been weak against SFs all season. Hollis has hit value the past two games and is projected at 20+ DK points tonight.
Dud of the Night
Trevor Ariza ($6,200) – Ariza proved me wrong last night and hit value. Tonight he gets a tougher matchup versus Al Farouq-Aminu. Aminu is a great defender and will look to limit Ariza tonight. I think he comes in at about 25 DK points tonight.
Ben McLemore – Doubtful, Rodney Stuckey – Doubtful, Jameer Nelson – Doubtful, Anthony Brown – Doubtful, Trey Burke – Doubtful, Nikola Pekovic – Doubtful, James Johnson – Out, Kevin Garnett – Doubtful, Terrence Jones – Out-