Everything you need to know for tonight’s NBA slate. Let’s get right into it!
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Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Rockets vs. Wizards – With an o/u of 215 this is the highest scoring game of the night. John Wall has been playing like a superstar again and so has the beard. If you are looking for value, look no further than Corey Brewer tonight. Brewer should get the start for an injured Trevor Ariza.
LOW O/U – Spurs vs. Raptors – This game comes in at an o/u of 188. Kawhi should be back tonight and will look to post a nice line. If I roll out a Raptor it will be Kyle Lowry, as the Spurs have been weak against PGs this season.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Bulls vs. Celtics – This one surprises me, but the Celtics have been playing pace and space. With a projected game pace of 102.5 this ties the highest projected of the night. I love IT2, Buckets, Pau, and Jared Sullinger in this game.
LOW PACE – Knicks vs. Jazz – How surprising is this, the Jazz are in the lowest game of the night. With a 93.4 projected game pace this one should be a snoozefest. I will be interested to see the matchup between Kristaps and Favors.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Ricky Rubio vs. D’Angelo Russell – Rubio is an elite play tonight against a terrible Lakers team. The Lakers just don’t have it together and it is getting embarrassing. I also like where Zach Lavine comes in at tonight as well.
AVOID – Derrick Rose vs. Isaiah Thomas – The Celtics are great against opposing PGs. Rose has been decent lately hitting value in his last few. Tonight, IT2 should just prove to be too much.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – James Harden vs. Brad Beal – The Beard had a rough outing last game, but tonight he gets one of the league’s worst against SGs. Beal will probably be able to score with Harden, but he definitely won’t be able to guard him.
AVOID – DeMar DeRozan vs. Danny Green – Danny Green and the Spurs are ranked 1st against SGs. DeRozan is a big part of the Raptors offense, but Green and the Spurs will look to shut him down tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Corey Brewer vs. Otto Porter – Brewer should get the start or at least extended minutes for Trevor Ariza. The Wizards can’t guard a SF to save their franchise. I love the value Brewer provides tonight.
AVOID – DeMarre Carroll vs. Kawhi Leonard – Carroll is an elite defender, but tonight he gets matched up against the true elite defender. Carroll doesn’t do a lot of scoring and with his matchup tonight it will be very difficult for him to find the basket.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Chris Bosh vs. Cody Zeller – Zeller had an offensive explosion last game, but unfortunately my Hornets are still weak in the post. Bosh will have an opportunity to have his way with an injury riddled post tonight.
AVOID – Derrick Favors vs. Kristaps Porzingis – Favors is a beast, I say again, Favors is a beast. Kristaps has been ranked 1st against opposing PFs and has even received accolades from Dirk. This should be a great matchup tonight.
TARGET – Jared Sullinger vs. Pau Gasol/Joakim Noah – The Bulls can’t guard the Center positions. I love Sully in this game because Brad Stevens will have to play with a post presence to contend with Pau. Sully is actually one of the cheaper options on the night.
AVOID – Bismack Biyombo vs. Tim Duncan – Don’t be fooled by Bismack’s big game against the Lakers (every C has a big game against the Lakers. Old Man Duncan will look to bring the energy down and contain Biz tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
James Harden ($10,600) – The Beard failed to meet value during his last outing. Tonight he gets a team defense that is terrible against opposing SGs. I love the matchup, pace, and point total in this one tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Corey Brewer ($3,500) – At 3,500 Brewer is probably the best value play on the night. With 30+ minutes he has a great opportunity to exceed value tonight.
Dud of the Night
Trevor Ariza ($5,500) – Simple, see Brewer’s value. Ariza is doubtful to play tonight so monitor his status.