Happy New Year’s Eve!
Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Suns vs. Thunder-Last night we got a taste of how important the MVP is to his team, as the Warriors completely underwhelmed. The Warriors lace them back up tonight, but the total is yet to come out and hinges on Chef Curry playing. The Suns and Thunder total is presently the highest on the night at 210. Obviously, Westy and KD are in play in cash games. However, there is a serious worry for a blowout here. With Eric Bledsoe sidelined the Suns are Brandon Knight dependent.
LOW O/U – Bucks vs. Pacers- On a short slate, the Bucks and Pacers produce the lowest total of 197.5. Paul George has yet to right the ship and is still not hitting value. For the Bucks it has been the Khris Middleton show, as he is playing great basketball this month. This game has value, but only based on late injury news.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Warriors vs. Rockets- Both teams are coming off of tough losses. The World Champs could also be without the MVP and soon to be GOAT, Steph Curry. With a game pace of 103.9 this one will be blazing. If Curry sits, Draymond, Klay, and Shaun are all in play. For the Rockets it should be all about Dwight Howard and James Harden.
LOW PACE – Trailblazers vs. Jazz- And there is the magic team name…the Jazz. We all know what that means, a total projected game pace of 93.8. This one should be terribly slow, but could have the makings of a good game and great value. Check the injury news to see Favors status before tip-off.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Russell Westbrook vs. Brandon Knight- Knight is ranked 28th against opposing PGs. Westy is the league’s elite isolation PG. If (and emphasize if) this game can stay close for three quarters Westy should have a monster evening.
AVOID – Michael Carter-Williams vs. George Hill – The Pacers have been great against PGs and are ranked 4th in the league. MCW has started to turn his season around, but Jerryd Bayless is back from injury. I like the high priced PGs tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Khris Middleton vs. Monta Ellis- The Pacers have struggled with opposing SGs all season. Middleton has had a phenomenal December and posted a 50 burger during his last outing. He is a little cheaper option tonight to help fill your lineup.
AVOID – C.J. McCollum vs. Rodney Hood- The Jazz were the top defenders in the league until the Spurs kicked it into high gear. McCollum will carry a lot of the load for the Trailblazers tonight if Lillard sits again. However, I like Middleton, Harden, and Thompson a lot better.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Paul George vs. The Greek Freak- George has got to get his season back on track. Last night was a great night to start, but tonight the matchup is even better. The Bucks are 27th against opposing SFs and PG13 will look to take advantage of this tonight. (KD is obviously honorable mention, but I worry about the blowout factor….see the last Lakers game stats)
AVOID – The Suns SFs vs. Kevin Durant Durant has been a great defender this season. The Suns will split time between Tucker and Warren. Both guys should be limited to about 20 DK points, which means there are better options out there.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Draymond Green vs. Clint Capela- Did anybody catch what Paul Millsap did to the Rockets last game. If you did, you will understand why Green is an elite play. If Steph sits, Greens usage goes up which should mean more production. I think he is looking at a 45+ DK night.
AVOID – Jon Leuer vs. Serge Ibaka- Leuer gets another tough matchup tonight. Like I said the other day, he has been a great source of value for about 25 DK points. However, his matchup against Serge is not appealing. The Thunder are ranked 6th against opposing PFs.
TARGET – Deandre Jordan vs. The Pelican’s Center DJ has seen his usage and production go up with Blake Griffin sidelined. He gets one of those heavenly matchups against a 30th ranked team. Jordan should dominate the boards and score tonight.
AVOID – Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Andre Drummond- The rookie has had some great games this year. Tonight he gets Center elite and Andre Drummond. Drummond and the Pistons are ranked 10th against opposing Cs this year. I like other options tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Anthony Davis ($10,400) – I love KD and Westy in this spot as well, but I am seriously concerned about them sitting the entire 4th quarter. The Brow should play the whole game and if he stays away from injury he could be in for a huge night without Blake Griffin in play.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Andrew Bogut ($4,400) – This is a hard night for value, that will solely depend on injury news. Bogut should get some heavier run against Dwight Howard and will even see a usage spike if Steph and Festus sit. I have him projected at 25 DK points tonight.
Dud of the Night
Andrew Wiggins ($6,100) – Wiggins gets a tough matchup tonight against the Pistons. He has hovered around value during his last couple of games, but will have all he can handle tonight. I honestly feel like the elite SFs are the key tonight.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Harrison Barnes – Out, Leandro Barbosa – Out, Blake Griffin – Out