Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Warriors vs. Mavericks- Warriors and Mavs obviously has the makings for a high scoring game. With a game total of 212, this game will be one of the highest scoring on the night. Stephen Curry is questionable and could be given a couple days of rest. If he is out look for Draymond Green and Klay Thompson to carry the load. On the other side of the ball there is excellent value in Chandler Parsons and J.J. Barea.
LOW O/U – Suns vs. Spurs- Pretty unusual to see the Suns as a low scoring team, but the Spurs can do that to anyone. The total for this game is 196 and may even be less due to Bledsoe being out because of injury. Other than Brandon Knight, it is hard for me to love this game. If I play any Spurs it will be Kawhi because every other player has the opportunity to be Pop’d tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – 76ers vs. Kings- The total for this game hasn’t come out yet, but I project we will be looking at a 210+ game. With the highest projected pace on the night at 103.6, this game should be blazing. I love DeMarcus Cousins, Omri Casspi, and Rajon Rondo in this one for the Kings. On the other side of the ball look no further than Ish Smith…the General is back in Philly.
LOW PACE – Jazz vs. Timberwolves- With a blazing pace of 94.3, the Jazz have done right by us and have produced the slowest pace of the night. This game comes with a lot of “ifs” as Favors may or may not play. It will also be interesting to see who takes up the slack for an injured Alec Burks. I like Gordon Hayward a lot in this one.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Isaiah Thomas vs. The Lakers- Yeah, I put the whole team as the matchup. The Lakers are pitiful and especially pitiful against opposing PGs. IT2 (like Kemba the other night) should dominate and has a great chance at exceeding value.
AVOID – Derrick Rose vs. George Hill – Hill has been a great defender this year, ranking 4th amongst his peers. Rose has played second fiddle to Buckets and seems to have accepted his role. I think there are better options on the night.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – C.J. McCollum vs. Will Barton/Gary Harris- C.J. has been fantastic with Lillard sidelined. Lillard is questionable tonight, which means McCollum’s usage will be insane. If Lillard suits up, McCollum still makes for a great play due to matchup.
AVOID – Monta Ellis vs. Jimmy Butler- I snuck Ellis into some cash games the other day and had great success. Ellis crushed during his last outing and has finally looked like he is coming back into form. However, tonight he gets to face Buckets and will have a tough matchup.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kawhi Leonard vs. P.J. Tucker- The Suns are ranked 26th against opposing SFs. Like I said above, Kawhi is the only play I trust from the Spurs. He has had 5 straight games at value and will look to continue this streak tonight. I have him projected at 40+ DK points.
AVOID – Nikola Mirotic vs. Paul George Mirotic has gotten the start at SF with Noah sidelined. The Pacers should roll out their “big” lineup tonight to try and contend with the post of the Bulls. While playing SF, PG has been great defensively. The 4th ranked team against opposing SF should have no issues stopping Mirotic tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – DeMarcus Cousins vs. The 76ers Starter- At this time it is impossible to know who the 76ers will start at PF tonight. But…..it doesn’t matter, Boogie can easily post a 60 burger against the terrible frontcourt of the 76ers.
AVOID – Jon Leuer vs. LaMarcus Aldridge- Leuer has been a great source of endless value this season, but the matchup is extremely tough tonight. LMA has been great defensively and will look to continue that trend tonight.
TARGET – Nikola Vucevic vs. Brook Lopez- BroLo is more worried about scoring than he is about defense (his brother the opposite). The Nets are ranked 28th against opposing Cs and will get all the C they can handle tonight. Vuc has been insane lately and should continue this trend tonight.
AVOID – Andrew Bogut vs. Zaza Pachulia- Zaza has been a great defender for the Mavs this year. Bogut may get extended run if Festus and Steph sit. Unfortunately for Bogut the offense should run through Klay and Draymond if that happens.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
DeMarcus Cousins ($10,000) – It’s all about the Boogie tonight. He gets a great matchup, is mad about an ejection, and could go for an infinite amount of fantasy points tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Ian Mahinmi ($4,800) – Mahinmi is quietly having a great season. He gets a great matchup against the Bulls tonight and has the potential to exceed value. I love where he is priced tonight.
Dud of the Night
Kobe Bryant ($6,100) – This is all about value, with so much value on the board it is hard to play Bryant. Yes, he has been better lately, but unfortunately he is still old and cost too much of my cap to roll out.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Gary Neal – Out, Alec Burks – Out, Jahlil Okafor – Doubtful, Blake Griffin – Out, Jordan Hill – Out