Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Hawks vs. Rockets- Nope, there is no 220 total tonight. The highest total on the evening is 209.5 and will be headlined by the Beard. This game has a lot of fantasy goodness tonight based on matchups and scoring. For the Rockets I am rolling out Harden and Howard. For the Hawks, Millsap has a great matchup and has been trending up again. This game should be heavily owned in Cash Games and GPPs.
LOW O/U – Cavaliers vs. Nuggets- LeBron has officially entered the realm of slumpland. Yes, if you are the King after two ice cold games you are in a slump. The total in this one is 197 and one of the lower on the night (Heat/Griz line unavailable at post). I have to think that LeBron will right the ship and have a decent outing soon. For the Nuggets I want all the Will Barton tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Bucks vs. Thunder- Thanks to the Thunder the Bucks actually have a higher pace game tonight. With a projected pace of 96.6, this is the 2nd fastest game on the night. We all know who will be producing for the Thunder, but the Bucks are a little trickier. Jerryd Bayless has returned from injury and crushed last night, Middleton will be reeling from an ejection, and who knows what MCW will decide to do. It’s the Westy and Durant show in this one.
LOW PACE – Heat vs. Grizzlies- With Dwyane Wade a game time decision tonight the total for this game hasn’t been released yet. However, this is once again a post battle. With a projected game pace of 93.4, this game has the makings for missed shots and boards. Feed Gasol and Whiteside. If D Wade sits Bosh is about a must play. Oh yeah, check out Zach Randolph on a night that Matt Barnes will have to sit.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Reggie Jackson vs. Jose Calderon- The matchup isn’t great, as the Knicks have been good against opposing PGs. The idea here is to play usage and production. Reggie is a huge piece of the Pistons offense and will get all the run he can handle tonight.
AVOID – Mike Conley vs. Goran Dragic – Just as Conley was a must play against the Lakers, tonight he gets the toughest matchup on the night. Like I have said before Dragic hasn’t been an offensive force this season, but he is ranked 3rd against opposing PGs. I think Conley hits value due to usage. However, if you are looking for upside I suggest looking elsewhere.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – James Harden vs. Kyle Korver- Usage, production, and total the Beard has all the makings for domination tonight. The Hawks don’t have anyone that can guard him and well….he is just that good. I have him projected around 50 DK points tonight.
AVOID – Courtney Lee vs. Dwyane Wade- This matchup hinges on D Wade’s status. Even if Wade doesn’t play I am staying away from Lee, but if Wade plays this is no man’s land. The guard duo in Miami have been stellar against opposing guards.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kevin Durant vs. Giannis Antetokounmpo- From now on I am going to refer to Giannis as only the “Greek Freak”, Antetokounmpo is wearing me out to type. KD has a stellar matchup tonight and will play over 35 minutes. I wouldn’t be surprised to see both KD and Westy post a 50 burger tonight.
AVOID – Carmelo Anthony vs. Marcus Morris SVG has endless love for Marcus Morris and rightfully so. Morris has been shutting down opposing SFs this season and is ranked 2nd in the league. Melo has been right on value as of late, but I think he will suffer from great D tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Paul Millsap vs. Clint Capela- This is about as must of a must play there is tonight. Millsap gets the Rockets who are ranked 30th against opposing PF’s. He has all the makings for total domination tonight.
AVOID – Kenneth Faried vs. Kevin Love- Love and the Cavs have been great against opposing PFs. The Manimal has been called on to do a lot this season, but the Cavs will look to shut him down tonight. I have him projected at sub-value on the evening.
TARGET – Andre Drummond vs. Robin Lopez- This is similar to the R Jax play above. Drummond has a decent matchup, but will get all the run he desires. His usage has been through the roof will provide him with ample opportunity tonight.
AVOID – Greg Monroe vs. Steven Adams- Greg has had a great year for the Bucks. The Thunder have been very good against opposing Cs. The Thunder are ranked 6th in the league against opposing Cs. I love a lot of Drummond tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook ($10,500) – Yes, you are going to have to pay up, but it could be worth it. Westy could go for 60 tonight and should be a cash game staple. Consistency is the key and Westy has been the model for this.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Mario Chalmers ($3,900) – Chalmers revenge game anyone?! I don’t know if the narrative applies to 2nd stringers, but Chalmers had a strong outing during his last game. If you are looking for cap space he opens up a lot tonight.
Dud of the Night
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,400) – Kristaps went wild during his last game, but the matchup is a lot tougher tonight. For his price I like saving cap and running out Zach Randolph or Millsap.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Josh McRoberts – Doubtful, Terrence Jones – Doubtful, Matt Barnes – Out, Kyrie Irving – Out