Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Lakers vs. Nuggets – On a short slate the highest scoring of the night is surprisingly two terrible teams. The o/u in the Lakers/Nuggets game is 204. This game could potentially have a lot of value if Kobe sits for the Lakers and Danilo sits for the Nuggets. Pay attention to the injury report up until lock and make sure you can slide in some value.
LOW O/U – Pistons vs. Heat – I love all of the bigs in this game, specifically Drummond and Whiteside. With a total of 193, this game is the lowest scoring of the night. However, that tells us that there should be plenty of rebounds and a lot of low post scoring. I am all in on Drummond in cash and GPP tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Grizzlies vs. 76ers – On short slates I like to make sure we cover every game. This is the 2nd highest pace game (Lakers/Nuggets 1st) tonight. With a projected game pace of 97.6, this game will be a little faster than the typical Grizzlies game. On paper I love where Marc Gasol and Mike Conley come in tonight, but I worry that this one could get out of hand quickly.
LOW PACE – Mavericks vs. Raptors – The Mavs are typically one of the faster pace teams in the league. The Raptors have been relatively slow this season. If the Raptors want to hang in this one they will have to maintain the 96.3 game pace. Kyle Lowry looks like he’ll have a shot at some nice scoring tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Jameer Nelson vs. D’Angelo Russell – You have read this statement a lot lately, PLAY PGs AGAINST THE LAKERS! The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. Nelson is getting the start for an injured Emmanuel Mudiay. At his price Nelson has the potential to return great value.
AVOID – Deron Williams vs. Kyle Lowry – Lowry and the Raptors are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Williams has had a great “comeback” season with the Mavs, but will probably look to pass his way to success tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Will Barton vs. Jordan Clarkson – Here’s another given, play SGs against the Lakers. If Danilo can’t go tonight (he is questionable) Barton will be called upon for more usage and to score. Coming off of a 50+ DK point performance, he will have the opportunity to replicate that tonight.
AVOID – Kentavious Caldwell-Pope vs. Dwyane Wade – Wade should start tonight. When Wade plays the Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing SGs. KCP will be called upon for minutes, but should see a lot of the points run through Drummond.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Jeff Green vs. Robert Covington – Bob Cov has cooled off offensively and defensively. Green has done the opposite and has done some nice scoring with the Grizz. I think that Green has a great chance at exceeding value tonight.
AVOID – Luol Deng vs. Marcus Miller – Miller and the Pistons are ranked 2nd against opposing SFs. Deng has had a nice little scoring run, but will have all he can handle tonight. I would rather have D Wade or Whiteside tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kenneth Faried vs. Larry Nance Jr./Julius Randle – The Manimal will also be called upon to provide some offense tonight. He has a great matchup, will get all of the minutes he can handle, and just recently posted a 35+ DK point game.
AVOID – Ersan Ilyasova vs. Chris Bosh – Bosh may be old, but he has been great on the defensive end of the court this year. Ersanity has taken a back seat to Reggie Jackson and Andre Drummond. I think Ersan will skate around value, but will have a tough time hitting it tonight.
TARGET – Andre Drummond vs. Hassan Whiteside – Drummond put up monster numbers in 4 OTs during his last outing. He has a decent matchup against Whiteside, but will want to prove his worth tonight. I have him projected at 45+ DK points tonight.
AVOID – Bismack Biyombo vs. Zaza Pachulia – Zaza has solidified himself as a great defensive C. Biz has provided a lot of value with Jonas out, but will get a tough matchup tonight. This is a scary matchup tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Andre Drummond ($9,400) – What do the number 74 mean to Andre Drummond? Oh…just the last amount of DK points he put up in a game. Drummond will have to play all the minutes he can handle tonight against a big man like Hassan Whiteside. He is definitely worth paying up for tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
James Johnson ($3,900) – JJ will draw the start at SF tonight for the Raptors. He will get the minutes and the usage to hit value tonight. I love where he comes in at, at his price.
Dud of the Night
Zaza Pachulia ($5,700) – Zaza has been a great source of value all season long. I just don’t see him producing the points tonight against Biz who is a decent defender. I think there are really only two centers to choose from tonight.
This is not a comprehensive list. Be sure to check for injury updates throughout the day
Tony Allen – Doubtful, Josh McRoberts – Doubtful, Tyler Johnson – Doubtful, Jonas Valanciunas – Doubtful, Devin Harris – Doubtful, Darrell Arthur – Doubtful, Emmanuel Mudiay – Out –