Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Rockets vs. Lakers – Tonight presents us with a short 3 game slate. I love Thursday night NBA mainly for Chuck and Kenny, but this game should provide us with an interesting matchup tonight. With a 213 total this is the highest scoring game of the night. Kobe will have a lot to prove as his ex-teammate Dwight Howard comes to town. Howard will also look to post big numbers in what some would call a revenge game. I love a Kobe, Howard, Harden stack tonight.
LOW O/U – Raptors vs. Hornets – Even though the total isn’t terribly low, it is the lowest on the night. At 196, the Raptors and Hornets will battle it out tonight. Some storylines to follow are Biyombo’s return to Charlotte, Batum’s sickness, and Kemba at home. I like this game tonight for value purposes.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Thunder vs. Cavaliers – This game is technically the 2nd fastest pace on the night, but during short slates I like to hit on all games. With a 96.1 projected game pace, this game will be played faster than LBJ usually likes to go. Westy and company will try to push the pace, so that the King never has a chance to get his legs under him. I love rolling out Westy and KD tonight.
LOW PACE – Raptors vs. Hornets – This game will provide the lowest total on the night and a projected pace of 96. Usually we would stay away from this game, but on a short slate night every game is in play. I am looking forward to the Lowry/Walker matchup tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Russell Westbrook vs. Mo Williams – Westbrook and KD got a great rest last night as they blew out the Trailblazers. Westy will be looking to impress tonight as he takes on the Cavs. The Cavs have been decent against opposing PGs, but Westy is a different animal.
AVOID – Kemba Walker vs. Kyle Lowry – Lowry and the Raps are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Walker has had a great year, but will have a tough matchup against Lowry. I like where Lowry comes in a lot better than Kemba tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – James Harden vs. Lou Williams/Jordan Clarkson – Harden had a nice 51 point outing against Sacramento the last game. Tonight he gets another great matchup against the Lakers, who unfortunately, can’t guard anybody. Look for Harden to run it up tonight.
AVOID – Andre Roberson vs. J.R. Smith – Roberson will get the start for the Thunder tonight, but Dion Waiters should get a lot more burn. The SG position for the Thunder is a lost cause, as most of the usage runs through the big 2.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – LeBron James vs. Kevin Durant – Let me break this one down for you easily – primetime, nationally televised, the King. I’ll take 110%.
AVOID – Terrence Ross vs. P.J. Hairston- I really want to tell you to avoid both guys, but if Nicolas Batum sits Hairston has some value. Ross and James Johnson have split time for the injured Demarre Carroll. They both haven’t shown a lot of value and get a tough matchup tonight with the Hornets.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Julius Randle vs. Clint Capela – Randle will probably come off of the bench again. During his last two games off of the bench he has easily hit value. He has a great matchup tonight and will still see around 25 minutes.
AVOID – Serge Ibaka vs. Kevin Love – The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. With the way this game should play out tonight, I see all the Westy and KD. Ibaka will get the rebounds, but that should be it tonight.
TARGET – Dwight Howard vs. Roy Hibbert – Howard will be looking for revenge tonight. He will be back under the LA lights and will want to show Los Angeles what they are missing. Fortunately for him the Lakers are terrible against opposing Cs.
AVOID – Steven Adams vs. Timofey Mozgov – Adams had a nice showing last night and hit value. Tonight he faces the Cavs who are ranked 3rd against opposing Cs. Just like Ibaka he will be cast aside for KD and Westy tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
LeBron James ($9,900) – I love where LBJ is priced tonight. Anytime you can get shares of the King on TNT you jump on it. LBJ is projected at about 50 DK points tonight. I could easily see him exceeding this value and hammering on the Thunder tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jeremy Lin ($4,200) – Lin don’t fail me now! Jeremy had a rough showing against the Magic, but he has tonight to redeem himself. His value will definitely go up if Batum has to sit tonight.
Dud of the Night
Kevin Love ($8,000) – I really want to like Love tonight, but I worry that this will be the LeBron show. I only have him projected at 30+ DK points and will need a lot more out of him to take down a GPP.
Nicolas Batum – Questionable, Demarre Carroll – Out, Iman Shumpert – Out, Kyrie Irving – Out, Al Jefferson – Out