Everything you need to know for tonight’s NBA slate! Let’s get right into it.
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Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Suns vs. Warriors – If I have ever wanted to stack every player from one game, this is the game tonight. After taking their first loss of the season, the Warriors are looking to score and score a lot. The o/u for this game is 220 tonight. We should see a lot of the Warriors Big 3 and the Knight/Bledsoe show for the Suns. I love everything about this game.
LOW O/U – Heat vs. Nets – This game will be all about the post tonight. We should see a lot of great matchups under the basket as Hassan Whiteside battles Brook Lopez. I also like the PF battle of Bosh versus Young. The total in the one is 190. I would love to tell you to roll Dwayne Wade, but unfortunately we never know which version is going to show up.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Celtics vs. Pistons – With the Warriors/Suns game sitting at a blazing 105.7 pace, the Celtics game comes in under the radar at a projected game pace of 100.7. This is surprising, considering the Celtics are playing the Pistons who have been projected very slow all season. After a tough matchup against the Cavs last night the Celtics will be looking for revenge. I love all the IT2, R Jax, and Drummond in this matchup.
LOW PACE – Pelicans vs. Jazz – This is not surprising at all, as the Jazz are playing in the slowest pace game of the night. With a game pace of 95.4, this will be an interesting matchup. Anthony Davis and Derrick Favors are my two bigs in play, while Hayward and Evans are my smaller guys. If you want a flier look no further than Jrue Holiday as his minutes restriction has been lifted.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Stephen Curry vs. Brandon Knight – Curry is my top play of the night (as you will see below). He is the best player in basketball right now and unfortunately the 26th ranked team against opposing PGs (the Suns) won’t be able to shut him down.
AVOID – Reggie Jackson vs. Isaiah Thomas – IT2 has been great against opposing PGs and the Celtics are presently ranked 1st in this category. Jackson provides a lot of scoring for the Pistons, but will have a tough matchup tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Wesley Matthews vs. Monta Ellis – Revenge game narrative for Ellis…. I doubt it. The Pacers are terrible versus opposing SGs. Matthews had a 50+ DK outing a couple of games ago and will have a great shot to hit value tonight.
AVOID – Tyreke Evans vs. Rodney Hood/Alec Burks – Evans has strung together some good games since coming back from injury. However, with Holiday’s minutes restriction being lifted and the Brow hammering down low, there are better options tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kent Bazemore vs. Robert Covington – Just Baze should get the start again tonight and has a great matchup. He crushed it last game with 40+ DK points. Bob Cov will compete, but he can’t hang with Baze.
AVOID – Otto Porter vs. Kawhi Leonard- Here we go again, Otto has had to up his game since Beal has been sidelined. However, with Kawhi standing across from him tonight this won’t be easy. I like other options at the SF spot.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Paul Millsap vs. Jerami Grant – Both Atlanta big men should have free reign tonight. Milsap should get 30+ minutes and have the potential for 40+ DK points. We always have to worry about the blowout factor, but I think that the 76ers will hold this one closer than we think.
AVOID – Chris Bosh vs. Thaddeus Young – Make sure you read this closely….D Wade is questionable with illness tonight. If he plays Bosh has a tough matchup against Thad Young. If Wade doesn’t start then Bosh basically becomes a must play because most of the scoring will have to run through him. Read these sentences again!
TARGET – Al Horford vs. Jahlil Okafor – Same concept as Millsap, Horford has a great matchup tonight. Honestly, I really like Horfords price on DK and think that he has a great shot to exceed value. If you look at the other Cs I love paying less price for Horford who can hit value nightly.
AVOID – Zaza Pachulia vs. Ian Mahinmi – Mahinmi has been playing great defense for the Pacers and has been praised by his coach. Zaza has had some 30+ DK games, but has cooled off. I just can’t get by Al Horford tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Stephen Curry ($10,700) – I have Steph projected at 50+ DK points tonight. I love the game total, the pace, and the usage. I also feel like Phoenix will stay in the game early and will prevent a lot of blowout minutes. It’s hard to cast aside a motivated Chef and I look for him to cook tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Jeremy Lin ($4,200) – Lin has upped his game lately and looks like a great 6th man for the Hornets. He has posted 25+ lines over the last two games and has played over 30 minutes. Given the same opportunity tonight he can produce similar value.
Dud of the Night
Kristaps Porzingis ($7,300) – Porzingis was great during the early part of the season, but he is looking like he has hit a rookie wall. He will get an easier matchup tonight, but I think this will be the Melo show. Porzingis needs to hop back on the wagon or we will have to look elsewhere.
Josh McRoberts – Doubtful, Joe Ingles – Out, Tim Duncan – Out –