Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Jazz vs. Thunder – This is becoming downright oxymoronic, the Jazz in the highest scoring game. On a 3 game slate this one will be paced by Westy and will produce the only over 200 game of the later slate. With an o/u of 203.5, I look for half of the scoring to be done by KD and Westy.
LOW O/U – Grizzlies vs. Heat – The Griz got stomped by my Hornets during their last outing. Tonight they have a 189 total and a game that should shape up as a post battle. I love the matchup between Whiteside and Gasol, but truly feel like Wade could have a night tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – 76ers vs. Raptors – The only “other” game on this slate comes in right in the middle. The total is only 193, but the terrible 76ers have been playing at a decent pace this year. With a 99.4 pace on the season the 76ers could help speed this one up. I will be looking to this game for value and I love where Kyle Lowry is at tonight.
LOW PACE – Grizzlies vs. Heat – Just like the terrible total in this game, the pace is even worse. The Griz and Heat are 24th and 25th respectively when it comes to pace of play. This game will probably produce rebounds, but lack on the scoring front.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
TARGET – Kyle Lowry vs. T.J. McConnell – McConnell will get the start tonight and will be spelled by Kendall Marshall for 16 short minutes. I don’t care who suits up as the PG for the 76ers, they can’t guard Kyle Lowry. Lowry’s usage alone makes him rival Westbrook as a PG play tonight.
AVOID – Goran Dragic vs. Mike Conley – Dragic and the Heat guards have been great defenders this year, but they have lacked in the scoring output category. If I roll out a Heat guard tonight it will be D Wade, as Dragic should be shut down by the tough Conley all night long.
Shooting Guard Matchups
TARGET – Dwayne Wade vs. Courtney Lee – Somebody has to score for the Heat and it looks like D Wade is the best option. Dwayne has quietly had a good year and the Griz have struggled against opposing SGs.
AVOID – Andre Roberson vs. Alec Burks – Burks usually comes off of the bench, but he gets most of the minutes at the SG spot. Roberson is just a placeholder for the Thunder. Most of the offense runs through KD and Westy leaving Roberson out to dry. There are definitely better options.
Small Forward Matchups
TARGET – Kevin Durant vs. Gordon Hayward – I preface this by saying that Hayward isn’t a bad defender, but KD is KD. Easily projected as the highest producing SF on the night, KD’s usage alone makes him an attractive play. He has a great chance at exceeding value tonight.
AVOID – Matt Barnes/Jeff Green vs. Luol Deng – Deng is back from injury and the Heat are great against opposing SFs. Barnes and Green have both been off and on value guys for the past couple of weeks. The matchup just doesn’t seem in their favor tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
TARGET – Derrick Favors vs. Serge Ibaka – I have showered Favors with praise all season long. He is easily the best defensive PF, but is also turning into one of the best offensive PFs. If the Jazz stay in this game they will have to run most of the offense through Favors tonight.
AVOID – Nerlens Noel vs. Luis Scola – On a short slate it is hard to stay away from guys that may hit value, but ultimately we want guys that will exceed. Noel hasn’t been killing it offensively this season, but has still produced in other categories. He gets a tough matchup tonight and comes in as one of my fliers in a GPP.
TARGET – Marc Gasol vs. Hassan Whiteside – Gasol has hit value in his past two outings. Whiteside isn’t a bad defender, but the older C will try to school the younger tonight. I think Gasol should have the potential to exceed value.
AVOID – Lucas Nogueira vs. Jahlil Okafor – I love Nogueira, but he comes in tonight as questionable. Bismack Biyombo has been pulling the start for the Raps and will probably get maxed out minutes tonight. Even if Nogueira plays I look for his minutes to be limited.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Russell Westbrook (10,300) – Westy, Westy, and more Westy! I have Westbrook projected at over 55 fantasy points tonight. I know the matchup isn’t great and the point total is low, but this is Russell Westbrook and he does what he wants!
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Patrick Patterson (3,800) – Patterson has seen an uptick in minutes with J Val out and due to his scoring output. He will get a great matchup tonight and at his price he has a great chance at hitting value.
Dud of the Night
Lucas Nogueira (3,000) – I really don’t want Nogueira to be a dud, but he is still questionable. If he suits up I definitely think he has a shot at value. He just seems like to much of a risk right now.