Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Nets vs. Hornets- There is a lot of uncertainty on the evening due to rest and injuries. As of right now, this game has the highest total at 204.5, but the spread is 15. The Nets have shut down Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young. This makes guys like Thomas Robinson a great play tonight, as he will see a usage rate of about 25%. He has also been putting up some nice stats and should see about 30 DKFP tonight. The Hornets will be looking for momentum going into the playoffs, so we should still see some value in Kemba Walker and his 26% usage rate. I think he gets 35+ DKFP on the evening before the 4th quarter.
LOW O/U – Clippers vs. Jazz- The total in this game is 185.5 with a spread of 7.5. For the Clippers, this game doesn’t matter. For the Jazz, this game is extremely important, as they are still competing for playoff seeding. The Clippers are resting all their big name guys, which means the top projected scorer in Utah tonight is… Cole Aldrich. Aldrich should see all the time down low and a usage rate of about 20%. Look for 25+ DKFP from the big man tonight. Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors should both put up about decent numbers on the Jazz side in an easy matchup that they must win.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Wizards vs. Pistons – This has the fastest game pace on the evening at 99.9. John Wall is doubtful tonight and will probably sit. If this is confirmed, look for Ramon Sessions to feel the void. Sessions put up 40+ DKFP last game against a terrible Nets team. The Pistons will continue to ride Andre Drummond, and although he has been very inconsistent lately, still has a usage rate of 21% and sees over 30 MPG. With all the big names resting tonight, he has the potential to be one of the top fantasy scorers.
LOW PACE – Grizzlies vs. Mavericks – Yes, the Clippers/Jazz game is the slowest on the evening. However, this game is a close second with a 94.3 projected game pace. The Grizzlies are all over the map, but they should see a nice game from Zach Randolph, who I have projected at 30 DKFP tonight. The Mavericks are also in must win territory, which means we should still see the usual suspects. I’ll look for J.J. Barea to use his 25% usage rate to put up a 30+ DKFP performance tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Toney Douglas/Tim Frazier (NO) vs. Los Angeles Lakers-The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. Both Douglas and Frazier are in great spots tonight, and I think they both see over a 25% usage rate and produce close to 30 DKFP. This matchup should be a field day for the scrubs of New Orleans.
WORST – Elfrid Payton (ORL) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. With all of the guys resting tonight, Payton may make for a sneaky tournament play. He is seeing over 30 MPG and has a usage rate of 20%. I am not going to guarantee 40 DKFP, but I will say that he is an elite option on a night that lacks elite options.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – James Ennis (NO) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 28th against opposing SGs. Who is James Ennis you ask? Well, honestly I don’t even think I know. Ennis is seeing about a 16% usage rate and 20+ MPG. He’s cheap, but he’s also as unknown as it gets.
WORST – Gary Harris (DEN) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. With every Spurs starter resting, this may not be a bad matchup for Harris. However, his 16% usage rate and 25 MPG worry me. I think there are safer options tonight and cheaper ones, too.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Carmelo Anthony (NYK) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 29th against opposing SFs. Carmelo has vowed to play in all of the last games for the Knicks. He is still seeing an on court usage rate of 28%, but his minutes have been inconsistent. If you want to roll him out as a GPP flier, so be it, but I don’t think it’s the safest play tonight.
WORST – Jakarr Sampson (DEN) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. This article is just full of greatness today, including Sampson. Sampson is averaging 10 DKFP on the year and has a usage rate of 14%. Gross. I’ll be looking elsewhere, even with all of the Spurs sitting out tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Jabari Parker (MIL) vs. Boston Celtics – The Celtics are ranked 27th against opposing PFs. Parker is seeing 39 MPG and should be trustworthy tonight. I like his usage rate of 22% and think that he could come in around 35 DKFP.
WORST – Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (LAC) vs. Utah Jazz The Jazz are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. The list just keeps getting better and better, doesn’t it? Mbah a Moute has a usage rate of 8% and is seeing an average of 10 DKFPPG. Yes, the entire Clippers team is resting, but c’mon, can I trust this guy tonight?
BEST – Robin Lopez (NYK) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing centers. Lopez is probable, and he has a usage rate of 18%. He should dominate the 76ers tonight, and I’m not opposed to rolling him out as a GPP flier.
WORST – Nikola Jokic (DEN) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 2nd against opposing centers. Jokic has also been inconsistent, but is averaging 25 DKFPPG. He also is seeing a usage rate of about 17% and could make for a sneaky play with all of the Spurs resting.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($9,700)- The Greek Freak should be considered the number one fantasy player on the night, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him put up 50+ DKFP. He has a usage rate of 25% and is seeing 35+ MPG. He is definitely one of the players on this slate with the fewest question marks.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Boban Marjanovic ($3,000) – It is Boban time, baby! He should get the start tonight and see a 20% usage rate. I think he easily amasses 25+ DKFP on the evening, and I will be playing him everywhere.
Dud of the Night
Carmelo Anthony ($7,800) – I think I could name 75 duds tonight, but I’ll stick with Melo. Yes, Melo should play, and yes, he will have his same usage rate, but his minute inconsistency worries me. I think there are better options on a night FULL of value.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points