Game Flow Notes
HIGH Total – Timberwolves vs. Kings- Even with a Spurs/Warriors rematch tonight, the Kings/Wolves still carry the highest total of 221 with a spread of 4.5. The Timberwolves should benefit from some great matchups, especially the matchup that Karl-Anthony Towns has. Towns has had a great rookie year and has a usage rate of 24.6%. I have him projected to score 45+ DKFP tonight and think that he should easily hit that mark. The Kings are still all about DeMarcus Cousins AKA Boogie. Cousins is also in a great spot with a 34% usage rate. He is the most consistent 50 DKFP scorer in basketball and should replicate this success tonight.
LOW Total – Raptors vs. Hawks- The Raptors have played in low scoring games all season. The total in this game is 200 with a spread of 6. The Raptors rely on Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan, who both have 25%+ usage rates. Both of these guys have the opportunity to hit value tonight, but the coaching staff isn’t opposed to resting them before the playoffs. If they play, I love them, but make sure to check injury news. Paul Millsap continues to be the guy for the Hawks. Millsap is playing over 30 MPG and has a usage rate of 24%. I think he puts up 35+ DKFP tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Suns vs. Rockets – The projected game pace in this one is 102.5. With the loss to the Mavericks last night, the Rockets are in must win territory. This is great for fantasy players, as the Rockets can’t afford to sit starters. The Suns will hope that Tyson Chandler can continue his great play and add to the 4 games in a row he has exceeded value. Chandler has a usage rate of 15% and will only cost you $5,000 on DK. He is a great tournament option tonight. The Rockets will have to play the Beard, James Harden, and he will have to score a lot. Harden underwhelmed last night, but he should be able to ride his 32% usage rate and produce 50+ DKFP.
LOW PACE – Bulls vs. Heat- The Bulls have to win out to even have a glimmer of hope for the playoffs (ain’t happening). Because of this, the starters should continue to put up big minutes. The projected game pace in this one is 96.1 and should be pretty monotonous. Pau Gasol is the Bulls only hope, and he has the best shot at 40+ DKFP tonight. His usage rate of 24% and 35+ MPG keep him in play on a nightly basis. Hassan Whiteside is questionable tonight, but he has been the Heat’s most consistent 40+ DKFP scorer over the last two months. He has seen his usage rise to about 22% and is a rebound monster. Look for him to have a big game tonight, if he plays.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST –Patrick Beverley (HOU) vs. Phoenix Suns-The Suns are ranked 29th against opposing PGs. I usually think of Beverley as a defensive guy because of his 14% usage rate; however, he can get streaky. He has a great matchup tonight and comes in at a low $4,800 price. I think he will hit value tonight and may have the opportunity to exceed.
WORST – Derrick Rose (CHI) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. I hate to say this (not really), but I think the Bulls are better sans Derrick Rose. Rose has a usage rate of 26% and is averaging about 25 DKFPPG. He should come in around his average tonight, but won’t do a lot more.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Zach LaVine (MIN) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. One night LaVine will throw up 10 DKFP, the next night he will throw up 40 DKFP. LaVine loves fast paced matchups, and that is what he will get tonight. I think that he should put up at least 30 DKFP.
WORST – Klay Thompson (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. The last outing against the Spurs, Thompson put up 26 DKFP, and he will be looking at another tough matchup again tonight. Thompson has a usage rate of 29%, but he is very scoring dependent. I think he will barely hit value tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – P.J. Tucker (PHO) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing SFs. Tucker is a lot like Patrick Beverley and very defensive minded. He can have games where he goes for 30+ DKFP, but those are rarities. With a 13% usage rate, I have a feeling we will see more scoring out of Mirza Teletovic tonight.
WORST – Harrison Barnes (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Barnes put up 19 DKFP against the Spurs during the last game. He has a usage rate of 14%, but sees over 30 MPG. The deal with Barnes is that he isn’t one of the main three. If your name isn’t Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, or Draymond Green, you usually don’t make my roster.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Gorgui Dieng (MIN) vs. Sacramento Kings – The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Gorgui had a nice February, but he has cooled off in March and April. He boasts a usage rate of 16% and is seeing over 25 MPG. I still think he underwhelms tonight and puts up about 25 DKFP.
WORST – Draymond Green (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs The Spurs are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs. It will take all of Green to help the Warriors win tonight. He was held in check the last game, only posting 37 DKFP. He has a usage rate of 17% but will need 40+ tonight. I think he gets that and a little more as the Warriors are working toward setting the best record in NBA history.
BEST – Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) vs. Atlanta Hawks- The Hawks are ranked 23rd against opposing centers. If Jo Val suits up tonight, he will be in a great spot. The Raptors are full of uncertainty due to locking up a playoff spot. Valanciunas has a usage rate of 21% and can easily put up 30+ DKFP. I think he makes for a great tournament play tonight.
WORST – Andrew Bogut (GSW) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 2nd against opposing centers. Yes, he put up 43 DKFP the last game, but the previous four he average 12 DKFP. With a 12% usage rate, there are better options on the evening.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
James Harden ($11,100)- Harden bit us last night, but the Rockets are still in must win territory. He has a great matchup tonight and will look to put this one away quick. I think we see 50+ DKFP for the Beard tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Mirza Teletovic ($5,000) – Teletovic is seeing 30+ MPG and a usage rate of 24%. He has put up over 30 DKFP over the last three and has a great matchup tonight. I think he is GPP gold on the evening.
Dud of the Night
Nikola Mirotic ($5,500) – My dud for yesterday, Kyrie Irving, got the good news of LeBron James being out and turned out to be a great play. Tonight’s dud has been putting up value, but has a tougher matchup on the evening. Mirotic put up 40 DKFP last game, but he still only has an 18% usage rate. He is getting 30 MPG and averaging about 25 DKFPPG. I think that he has the ability to hit value, but I definitely don’t think he will score enough for us to take down a GPP.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points