Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Trail Blazers vs. Warriors- The total in this one is 225 with a spread of 12. The first time these two faced off, Damian Lillard went bananas for 78 DKFP. He has been rather cold lately, only averaging 30 DKFP in the last 5. It will take a huge performance from him tonight to pull down a win, and I am looking for him to break out of his slump. The Warriors will continue to roll behind Steph Curry’s 34% usage rate tonight. If the game stays close, which I expect, he should put up 50+ DKFP.
LOW O/U – Pacers vs. Knicks-The total in this one is 195.5 with a spread of 4. The Pacers are in must win territory due to playoff seeding. Paul George has a usage rate of 31.9% and is playing over 35 MPG. I have him projected at 40 DKFP tonight, but I feel like he could exceed this total. The Knicks are really playing for nothing and Carmelo’s minutes are down. I can only recommend paying for value on the Knicks side and rolling out Derrick Williams, who should see a usage rate of about 20% again with Kristaps Porzingis sidelined.
Pace of Play
|Away Team||Away Pace||Home Team||Home Pace||Avg Pace|
HIGH PACE – Thunder vs. Rockets- The projected game pace in this one is 101.30, a close second to the Trail Blazers/Warriors game. The dynamic duo of Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook are both in a great spot. I can see them using their 30% usage rates to produce a 50 DKFP outing each for us on the evening. The Rockets will continue to be all about the Beard, James Harden. Harden boasts a usage rate of 31% and is seeing over 40 MPG. I think all three of these guys will see over 50 points on the evening.
LOW PACE – Hornets vs. Cavaliers – The projected game pace in this game is 98.40 and the slowest on the night. My Hornets are a legit playoff threat and will use Kemba Walker’s 27% usage rate to help take down the top seeded Cavs. I have Walker projected at 40+ DKFP tonight and will have some tournament exposure to him. The Cavs will continue to be led by King LeBron James. James has a usage rate of 29% and is in no mood to rest. I have a feeling we will see 45+ DKFP from him tonight.
|Probable||Kyrie Irving (CLE), Blake Griffin (LAC), Jimmy Butler (CHI)|
|Questionable||Raymond Felton (DAL), Derrick Favors (UTA), Taj Gibson (CHI), Andrew Bogut (GSW), Nick Young (LAL)|
|Doubtful||Alan Anderson (WAS), Paul Pierce (LAC), Brandon Knight (PHO), Jon Leuer (PHO), Derrick Rose (CHI), Jerryd Bayless (MIL), Kristaps Porzingis (NYK)|
|Out||Mike Conley (MEM), P.J. Hairston (MEM), Jose Calderon (NYK), Andre Iguodala (GSW)|
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Isaiah Thomas (BOS) vs. Los Angeles Lakers-The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. Thomas has been great this season, putting up an average of 35 DKFPPG. He is seeing a usage rate of 27% and should show out at a great price tonight. I think IT2 will be an overlooked PG on the evening.
WORST – D’Angelo Russell (LAL) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs. I honestly feel sorry for Russell due to all the heat has received as of late. He is seeing a usage rate of 23.3% and is averaging about 25 DKFPPG. I think he has a tough time against IT2 and company tonight and definitely doesn’t make my list of targets.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Rodney Hood (UTAH) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. Hood is actually priced decent and has hit value in the last 3 games. He has a usage rate of 21%, and I have him projected right around value tonight (25 DFKP). I like him, but not enough to have a lot of exposure.
WORST – Devin Booker (PHO) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SGs. Booker has had a good season so far, and his 25.7% usage rate puts him in play nightly. I think that he will also come in around value tonight and should put up 25+ DKFP. The problem is, this won’t be enough points to help you take down a GPP.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Kevin Durant (OKC) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing SFs. This one doesn’t take a lot of stats to know that he is an elite play. I definitely think we should see 50+ DKFP from him tonight.
WORST – PJ Tucker (PHO) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SFs. Tucker has been a hot and cold guy, due to his defensive prowess. He only has a usage rate of 10% and is averaging just 20 DKFPPG. I definitely think there are better options.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Serge Ibaka (OKC) vs. Houston Rockets – The Rockets are ranked 29th against opposing PFs. Ibaka has had three 30 DKFP performances over the last week and will be looking to replicate that tonight. His usage rate is down to about 17%, but he should easily be able to put up 30 DKFP against a weak Rockets defense.
WORST – Marvin Williams (CHA) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers The Cavs are ranked 2nd against opposing PFs. Williams has a usage rate of 15%, but he is very 3-point dependant. He doesn’t do a lot under the boards, which drives down his worth. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight.
BEST – Brook Lopez (BKN) vs. New Orleans Pelicans- The Pelicans are ranked 29th against opposing centers. Lopez is averaging 36 DKFPPG and has a usage rate of 27%. I think he comes in at 40+ DKFP tonight, and I always love playing centers versus the Pelicans.
WORST – Cody Zeller (CHA) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing centers. Zeller is still splitting time with Al Jefferson, and I just don’t see a lot of fantasy scoring coming from his 14% usage rate. I think there are definitely better options tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
James Harden ($10,600) – The Beard loves playing his old team. With a usage rate of 31%, I think he goes for 50+ DKFP tonight. I am going to try to fit all three elites from this game into my lineups tonight (Durant, Westbrook and Harden).
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Ronnie Price ($3,200) – With Brandon Knight on the mend, Price should get the start at PG. He should see about 30 minutes and a usage rate of 15%. I think he comes in at about 25 DKFP tonight, exceeding value.
Dud of the Night
DeAndre Jordan ($7,800) – Jordan will be happy to see Blake Griffin return, but he will also have to worry about a drop in usage rate. I think his usage rate goes down to about 15%, and I don’t see him exceeding 35 DKFP.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points