Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – GAME – Heat vs. Trail Blazers- Due to all of the uncertainty with the other games tonight, this is the highest total on the night at 209.5 with a spread of 4.5. The Heat have been relying on Hassan Whiteside to produce a lot of scoring with his 25% usage rate. He underwhelmed last night against Sacramento, but should be able to right the ship tonight and produce 40+ DKFP. The Trail Blazers rely solely on their two guards Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum. Both guys have usage rates close to 30 and are projected at 35+ DKFP tonight. They make a great guard stack on the evening.
LOW O/U – GAME – Pacers vs. 76ers- The total in this game is 211 and the spread is 11. The Pacers are the Paul George show and are trying to maintain their playoff push. George has a usage rate of 31% and is seeing over 35 mpg. I have George projected at 40+ DKFP tonight. The 76ers are in disarray, but do have one bright spot. Ish Smith has a usage rate of 27% and is seeing over 30 mpg. He had a rough game last night, but should turn it around tonight and go for about 30+ DKFP.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – GAME – Kings vs. Nuggets- The projected game pace in this one is 102.3 and the fastest on the night. DeMarcus Cousins/Rajon Rondo will sit out of this one again tonight, which will open up more usage for the whole team. Darren Collison should see a usage rate of 31% and should be able to put up nice value on the evening. For Denver, I expect the Will Barton show to be on tonight in a great matchup. He is consistently hot and cold, but with a 22% usage rate I think he can definitely hit 30 DKFP tonight.
LOW PACE – GAME – Raptors vs. Spurs – This one is the slowest on the night with a projected game pace of 93.5. The Raptors may or may not rest players, but we probably won’t know until game time (thanks Coach). If they don’t sit anyone Kyle Lowry and Demar Derozan make for great plays and both should come in over 30 DKFP. The Spurs are also up in the air, but Kawhi Leonard should play. He has a 27% usage rate and should produce close to 40 DKFP tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – George Hill (IND) vs. Philadelphia 76ers-The 76ers are ranked 28th against opposing PGs. Hill only carries a usage rate of about 16%, but he seems to do well in good matchups. At his price I think he exceeds value and makes for an intriguing tournament play.
WORST – Damian Lillard (POR) vs. Miami Heat- The Heat are ranked 2nd against opposing PGs. Lillard is one of those matchup proof guys that is in play every night. He has a usage rate of 30% and sees 35+ mpg. I think he is a great play tonight and will be a staple in my lineups.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Gary Harris (DEN) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 29th against opposing SGs. Harris has had a good season, but isn’t the prolific scorer like Will Barton. Harris has a usage rate of 17% compared to Barton’s 22%. I will be rolling out Barton over Harris this evening.
WORST – Demar Derozan (TOR) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. Derozan is questionable due to rest, but like I said earlier we won’t know until tip (thanks again Coach). If he plays he has a usage rate of 30% and will probably be the 2nd highest scoring SG, just make sure he is playing before you roll him out.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Paul George (IND) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 29th against opposing SFs. The Pacers have playoff implications riding on every game, so there will be no rest for PG. George is the highest projected SF on the evening with a usage rate of 31%. He should be a lock for a 40+ DKFP performance tonight.
WORST – Norman Powell (SG) (TOR) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Powell has seen a nice usage rate of about 17% and has hit value in the last 5 games. He has a tough matchup tonight, but if all the Raptors stars sit he should see a usage rate of about 25%. His worth will be dependant on whether or not the stars sit.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Kenneth Faried (DEN) vs. Sacramento Kings – The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Faried seems healed and put up nice numbers against the Pelicans last game. He is averaging about 28 DKFPPG and has a usage rate of 26%. I think he could easily hit 30+ DKFP tonight.
WORST – Jason Thompson (TOR) vs. San Antonio Spurs The Spurs are ranked 3rd against opposing PFs. With Luis Scola sidelined, Thompson has been getting the start. He is seeing a usage rate of 11%. He got the start last night and only put up 14 DKFP. I think there are a lot better options tonight.
BEST – Ian Mahinmi (IND) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. Mahinmi is still cheap and is usually underowned. He has a usage rate of 15% and sees over 30 mpg. I think that he will come in at about 30 DKFP tonight and easily hit value.
WORST – Jonas Valanciunas (TOR) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 3rd against opposing Cs. Jonas has a usage rate of 20%, but could see a higher usage rate if Lowry and Derozan sit. I have him projected at 25+ DKFP, but I could see a 30 DKFP performance if all over the other guys sit.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Pau Gasol (7,400)- The Bulls have to win and to win they need a lot of Pau. He had a good game against the Rockets last game, but will need to contain Andre Drummond tonight. He has a usage rate of 25% and should see about 45+ DKFP tonight.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Seth Curry (3,200) – Make sure you read that right, it says Seth not Steph. However, the younger Curry should get all the run he can handle tonight. When given the minutes last game he put up 30 DKFP. In a better matchup tonight I could see a similar performance and I definitely think he hits 25+ DKFP.
Dud of the Night
Robert Covington (6,500) – With the return of Jerami Grant, Bob Cov is coming off of the bench again. He has seen his usage rate drop to below 20% and has a tough matchup tonight. He needs about 33 DKFP to hit value and I only see him reaching 25 DKFP tonight.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points