Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Celtics vs. Warriors- The highest total on the night is 223.5 with a spread of 12. Both of these teams boast players with a 30+ usage rate. The Celtics rely heavily on Isaiah Thomas and he will see about a 30.1% usage rate tonight. Thomas averages 35+ DKFPPG and should see closer to 40 DKFP tonight due to the pace and scoring. The Warriors will be all about Steph Curry and his 30.3% usage rate. I have him projected as the top fantasy scorer on the night and feel like he could pull down a 50 burger.
LOW O/U – Raptors vs. Grizzlies- This is the lowest total on the evening at 197 with a spread of 5.5. Kyle Lowry put up 45 DKFP the last outing and should be able to do the same tonight. The Grizzlies are struggling at the PG point and 33 mpg are enough to put up a nice DKFP return. The Grizzlies don’t really have a go to guy right now. Zach Randolph is the highest projected, but at about 30 DKFP he really doesn’t make the short list tonight.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Wizards vs. Suns- The fastest game on the evening will be in Golden State, but this one is a close second. The projected game pace in this game is 102.9. I love the pace of this game and feel like John Wall will thrive in this setting. Wall is seeing over 30 mpg and has a usage rate of 29%. I have a feeling he will post a 50 burger tonight as well. The Suns have gotten Brandon Knight back and he has put up some nice performances. He has taken back the usage and is seeing about 28% now. He also thrives in these types of games and should be able to put up 35+ DKFP.
LOW PACE – Timberwolves vs. Jazz – This is the slowest game on the evening coming in at projected game pace of 93. It is surprising to see the Wolves as one of the slower teams on the evening, but they are matched up with the Jazz. The Wolves will continue to follow the lead of rookie, Karl Anthony-Towns. Towns has a 28% usage rate and is seeing a whopping 38 mpg. The Jazz will try to stop KAT with their two bigs, Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert. Favors is questionable due to knee soreness, but if he plays I have him projected at 40 DKFP tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – John Wall (WAS) vs. Phoenix Suns-The Suns are ranked 29th against opposing PGs. Like stated above, Wall has a 29% usage rate and can put up 40+ on a nightly basis. This game should stay close enough for him to get going tonight and I am saying 50+ DKFP.
WORST – Stephen Curry (GSW) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs. Curry is matchup proof, so don’t let the defense hinder you. With over a 30% usage rate he should ham out tonight on his quest for a lot of wins.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Bradley Beal (WAS) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. Beal has bounced back from injury and has a usage rate of 24%, he put up 35 DKFP last game and I love the spot he is in tonight.
WORST – Zach Lavine (MIN) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SGs. Lavine has played great in his starting role, but seems to only thrive in faster paced games. With his price he needs about 28 DKFP to hit value. I think that there are better options tonight.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Otto Porter (WAS) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 27th against opposing SFs. Porter only has a usage rate of about 14%, but does seem to take advantage of his opportunities. I love where he comes in at tonight and I am not opposed to stacking Wizards.
“Wiggins has a usage rate of 25 percent and should see about 25 DKFP tonight”
WORST – Andrew Wiggins (SG) (MIN) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SFs. Wiggins is in the same spot as Zach Lavine, both guys seem to do better in faster paced matchups. Wiggins has a usage rate of 25% and should see about 25 DKFP tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Marvin Williams (CHA) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 28th against opposing PFs. Marv let me down last game against the 76ers and only put up 22 DKFP. Marvin has a decent usage rate of 18.2, but is also shot dependent. When I am paying for a PF I want a guarantee and Marv doesn’t do enough to guarantee me points. I may have a little exposure in GPPs due to his 30 DKFP projected value.
WORST – Paul Millsap (ATL) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. Millsap has a usage rate of 24% and is seeing over 35 mpg. Millsap will have to put up some nice points tonight for the Hawks to stay in the game. He has been up and down all season, but has the ability to put up 40+ DKFP on a nightly basis.
BEST – Cody Zeller (CHA) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing Cs. Cody was the play during the last game against the 76ers. He had a double double and put up 36 DKFP. I think he could sneak another double double tonight and will definitely have some exposure in GPPs.
WORST – Al Horford (ATL) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing Cs. Horford has a usage rate of 19% and plays over 30 mpg. He is a tricky fantasy play because his price always seems to low. I think he could get about 30 DKFP tonight and come close to value.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Steph Curry ($10,200) and John Wall ($10,300)- I couldn’t make up my mind between the two today. I am going to try and have lineups with both of these guys tonight. I think the explanations above hit on all the points, but if you are looking for 50 DKFP tonight, these two have the best shot.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
John Henson ($3,800) –Henson is back on the court and his price hasn’t caught up with his production yet. Henson is seeing about 25 mpg and a usage rate of 18%. I have him at about 25 DKFP tonight which will easily help him reach value.
Dud of the Night
Kyrie Irving ($7,300) – Irving needs about 38 DKFP to hit value tonight. He has been extremely inconsistent and has even lost a little on court usage (26%). I think he hovers more around 30 DKFP tonight and think there are better options (See the 2 Superstars Worth Paying For).
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points