Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – GAME – Kings vs. Rockets- The total in this game is 221.5 with a spread of 15. The Kings are resting everybody, so they can prevent sending a draft pick to Chicago. With all the big names sitting, it will be up to Rudy Gay and Seth Curry to carry most of the load. Rudy Gay is one of the best SF’s on the slate (I know you don’t hear that often). The Rockets have to win to get the pleasure of playing the Warriors in the first round of the NBA Playoffs. This means you should look to James Harden to go for 50+ DKFP. He should use his 40+ minutes and a 32% usage rate to carry the team.
LOW O/U – GAME – Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The total in this game is 193 with a spread of 6.5. The Jazz have to win and hope that the Lakers lose. With that said, Gordon Hayward will try to make it his 4th game over 40 DKFP in a row. My main target from this game is the retiree, Kobe Bryant. Bryant should take about 40 shots and should come in at about 35+ DKFP tonight. I think every DK player will own Bryant tonight in his last game ever.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – GAME – Hawks vs. Wizards – The projected game pace in this one is 101.7. This one does have some playoff implications for the Hawks, which means we should still see a lot of Paul Millsap. Millsap has a usage rate of 22% and is seeing over 30 MPG. He could easily post 40 DKFP tonight. With John Wall sidelined, this game will be about Marcus Thornton. Thornton has fit in well with the Wizards and should put up close to 30 DKFP tonight.
LOW PACE – GAME – Spurs vs. Mavericks – Obviously the Jazz game is the slowest projected on the night, but this game is a close 2nd at a projected game pace of 94.3. I don’t like this game at all for plays as most of the starters will sit. The Mavs should still roll out some guys, but you can’t be certain who will get the usage.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Shelvin Mack (UTAH) vs. Los Angeles Lakers-The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. Mack has a 22% usage rate and plays 30+ MPG. The Jazz have to win and hope that the Rockets lose. I think that he will come in around 30 DKFP tonight.
WORST – Goran Dragic (MIA) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs. The Heat have pretty much locked up the 3rd spot in the East, but could shake up a lot with a win at the Celtics. Dragic put up 29 DKFP last night and I think we could see a similar number against the Celtics tonight.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – Austin Rivers (LAC) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. Everybody from the Clippers should rest tonight. I predict Rivers will see 30+ minutes and a 30 DKFP game.
WORST – J.J. Barea (PG) (DAL) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SGs. With Deron Williams back in the lineup, J.J. has been bumped over to SG. He should see over 25 minutes tonight and a 25% usage rate. I think he will struggle to hit value this evening, however.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Rudy Gay (SAC) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing SFs. Rudy has been on fire with everybody resting for the Kings. He should see a 30% usage rate tonight and will be trying to spoil the Rockets’ playoff hopes. I think he could see 35+ DKFP tonight.
WORST – Wesley Matthews (SG) (OKC) vs. San Antonio Spurs- The Spurs are ranked 1st against opposing SFs. Matthews has been up and down all season and is mainly a defensive guy. I think that he will see about a 17% usage rate and 30+ minutes in a matchup against the Spurs’ second team.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Donatas Motiejunas (HOU) vs. Sacramento Kings- The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Donatas is getting the start, but is only seeing about 20 minutes a game. I love his matchup, but with the low minute total I think we only see a 15 to 20 DKFP performance tonight.
WORST – Julius Randle (LAL) vs.Utah Jazz The Jazz are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. Randle has hit value in the last 7 games, but has a tough matchup tonight. It will be the night of the Kobe, and Randle will be in the shadows. I am projecting low teen usage rates from everybody on the Lakers but Bryant tonight.
BEST – Cristiano Felicio (CHI) vs. Philadelphia 76ers- The 76ers are ranked 30th against opposing centers. Felicio put up 23 DKFP in a great matchup against New Orleans last game. He should get a lot of burn tonight and will see a usage rate of 15%. I think he will reach the 30 DKFP threshold this evening.
WORST – Andre Drummond (DET) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavs are ranked 1st against opposing centers. Drummond has put up 5 duds in the last 6 games. He should still see over 32 MPG tonight and will have a 25% usage rate. I just worry he has hit a cold streak at the end of the season.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
Kobe Bryant ($5,000) – Call me nostalgic, call me what you want. They could price Kobe at $27,000 tonight and I would still play him. He is going to take about 40 shots and should put up well over value. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw an 60 DKFP game from the future hall of famer tonight. With that said I also think he will be 70% owned.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Boban Marjanovic (3,300) – Popovich should rest all of the starters tonight in a game that doesn’t necessarily matter. Boban should see about 25+ minutes and a 25% usage rate. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a nice 30 DKFP game tonight from the future of the Spurs.
Dud of the Night
Jimmy Butler (7,900) – Butler has had some great performances over the last 4 games. The Bulls are playing for nothing, and Butler should take this one easy. He should still see a usage rate of 30%, but I only have him projected at about 35 DKFP tonight.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points