Game Flow Notes
HIGH O/U – Kings vs. Suns- The total in this game is the highest on the night at 219, with a spread of 6.5. The Kings and the Suns are both just playing for the end of the season, which means they really aren’t playing for anything. DeMarcus Cousins will not play in the last two games, and Rajon Rondo is questionable. This does open up some value for other Kings players, but they have been too inconsistent to determine a true play. The Suns will continue to utilize their two towers, Alex Len and Tyson Chandler. Chandler has hit value in the last 6 games with a 14% usage rate. He should dominate the Kings down low and also makes for a great value play.
LOW O/U – Hawks vs. Cavaliers- This game has the lowest total on the night at 204.5, with a spread of 6. Both of these teams are locked into the playoffs, but they might use this game as a tuneup. It has been the Paul Millsap Show for the Hawks, as he has put up an average of 50 DKFP in the last four games. He had a 72 DKFP performance against the Celtics last game. His matchup is tougher tonight, but his 24% usage rate should give him the opportunity to put up close to 45+ DKFP on the evening. Will LeBron James sit or play? I think he plays tonight in a great matchup. He should see over 30 minutes and a 30% usage rate.
Pace of Play
HIGH PACE – Hornets vs. Celtics – This is the second fastest game on the evening with a projected game pace of 101.9. This game still may carry some playoff implications, so both teams should be invested. The Hornets are trying to give Kemba Walker some “in game” rest. The matchup is not ideal tonight and his 25% usage rate has cut his production down. I don’t have a true Hornets target from this game. The Celtics are Isaiah Thomas’ team. He is seeing over 30 MPG and a 33% usage rate. I think he comes in around 35 DKFP tonight.
LOW PACE – Mavericks vs. Jazz- This one will likely be terribly slow with a projected game pace of 91.7. This game also carries some playoff weight, which means both teams will be vying for a win. Old man Dirk is still the go to for the Mavericks and has a usage rate of 26%. The matchup isn’t ideal, but I think that he will, at least, produce 30 DKFP tonight. Derrick Favors is questionable with knee soreness, but if he plays he will be in a great spot. He is averaging 32 DKFPPG this season, and I think he should be able to put up his season average tonight.
Defense vs. Position
Point Guard Matchups
BEST – Russell Westbrook (OKC) vs. Los Angeles Lakers-The Lakers are ranked 30th against opposing PGs. I want so badly to trust Russell and play him tonight, but I am concerned about his minutes. On court he will still see about a 30% usage rate, but he could be rested. If he plays a full minutes total, there is no reason he shouldn’t score 50 DKFP tonight.
WORST – Kemba Walker (CHA) vs. Boston Celtics- The Celtics are ranked 1st against opposing PGs. Walker still carries a 25% usage rate, but has been seeing his minutes dip. This game could still impact seeding, so Walker may see 30+ minutes. I just can’t be certain what Steve Clifford will do, and I will look elsewhere tonight for my fantasy rosters.
Shooting Guard Matchups
BEST – James Anderson (SAC) vs. Phoenix Suns- The Suns are ranked 30th against opposing SGs. Anderson has been starting for the Kings and playing about 25 minutes per game. His usage rate is still in the teens, which has me looking elsewhere this evening.
WORST – Wesley Matthews (DAL) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SGs. Matthews consistently sees over 35 MPG. However, he is a defensive guy and his usage rate is only about 16%. He has come in under value the last two games, and I see more of the same tonight. Look for Raymond Felton to shoulder more of the offensive load.
Small Forward Matchups
BEST – Andrew Wiggins (SG) (LAL) vs. Houston Rockets- The Rockets are ranked 30th against opposing SFs. Wiggins has been getting the start at SF due to Zach LaVine playing the SG spot. Wiggins is consistently seeing 30 MPG and a usage rate of 25%, and I think he’ll continue to produce tonight.
WORST – Justin Anderson (DAL) vs. Utah Jazz- The Jazz are ranked 2nd against opposing SFs. Anderson has seen his playing time go up with the absence of Chandler Parsons. He is now seeing about 25 MPG and even had a 41 DKFP performance against Memphis two games ago. The Jazz are a completely different animal, and Anderson will likely have a tougher time producing tonight.
Power Forward Matchups
BEST – Alex Len © (PHO) vs. Sacramento Kings – The Kings are ranked 30th against opposing PFs. Len has been playing more PF, due to Chandler playing the center role. I love this matchup tonight coupled with Len’s 23% usage rate. I think he will easily put up 30+ DKFP and may even put up more on the evening.
WORST – Dirk Nowitzki (DAL) vs. Utah Jazz The Jazz are ranked 1st against opposing PFs. Dirk is still the anchor of this team, but he has definitely slowed down. He has struggled to hit value in his last 6 games, and I worry we may see the same tonight. I have him projected at 25 DKFP tonight, which is slightly under value.
BEST – Steven Adams/Enes Kanter (OKC) vs. Los Angeles Lakers- The Lakers are ranked 29th against opposing centers. Adams and Kanter should both dominate this matchup. Kanter sees a little more offensive usage with a usage rate of 23%. However, I still don’t think we know for sure what Billy Donovan will do. If Durant and Westbrook sit, both of these guys (Adams and Kanter) are in play tonight.
WORST – Al Horford (ATL) vs. Cleveland Cavaliers- The Cavaliers are ranked 1st against opposing centers. Horford put up 31 DKFP his last game against the Cavs. I think we will see the same tonight. He has a usage rate of 19%, but sees over 30 MPG. I think he makes a decent cash play, but I am staying away from him in GPPs tonight.
Lineup Quick Hits
Superstar Worth Paying For
James Harden ($10,900)- The Beard put up 75 DKFP last night against the Lakers last night. The Rockets are in another must-win situation, so Harden will continue to see 40 MPG and a 32% usage rate. I have a feeling we will definitely be looking at another 50 DKFP outing on the evening and potentially a repeat performance from last night.
Save Big Bucks by Drafting
Marcus Thornton ($3,000) – Thornton made a move to the Wizards and is putting up 30 DKFP a game. During his first game with Washington he played 30 minutes and scored 16 real points. He should see a usage rate of about 25% and will see 25+ minutes tonight. I think he comes in around 25 DKFP on the evening and makes for a great value play.
Dud of the Night
Kemba Walker ($8,200) – Yes, I am a huge Hornets fan, and I like Kemba Walker. However, Walker has been seeing some in game rest due to the playoffs coming up. He is still seeing a usage rate 25%, but may not see his full load of minutes. I think he comes in around 35 DKFP tonight which is under value.
*DKFP DraftKings Fantasy Points