AD and LeBron

The odds are stacked against the Spurs tonight. This is their second consecutive night playing a game in Los Angeles. Last night, San Antonio lost a close game to the Clippers and it has a quick turnaround to play a rested a Lakers team. For this reason, the Lakers are 12-points favorites.

Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.

SHOWDOWN VALUE PLAYS


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FIVE BETTING TRENDS

— The Lakers have won each of their last 11 games at STAPLES Center following a road win.

— The Spurs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Lakers.

— Each of the Lakers’ last six games against Western Conference opponents has gone OVER the total points line.

— Anthony Davis has scored the first basket in each of the Lakers’ last two home games against Western Conference opponents.

— LeBron James has scored 29-plus points in each of his last five home appearances against the Spurs.

Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Spurs

The Lakers’ defense is a problem. They lead the Western Conference in defensive efficiency and are very difficult to score fantasy points against. For this reason, plays from the Lakers’ side of the game make for much better options. Of the Spurs’ stars, we have DeMar DeRozan ($10,600) and LaMarcus Aldridge ($9,400) to consider. The Lakers allow the fewest DKFP to small forwards and the second-fewest DKFP to power forwards. It’s a brutal matchup for both of them. If forced to roster one of them, Aldridge is my choice. DeRozan has been held under 40 DKFP in consecutive games and Aldridge is coming off a 50.25 DKFP outing against the Clippers.

One starter who makes some sense for salary savings is Bryn Forbes ($2,800). He doesn’t have the most upside in the world, but we know he’s going to get decent minutes and he’s cheap. For the season, Forbes averages 25.5 minutes and 17.97 DKFP as a starter. As great as the Lakers’ defense is, the one position they aren’t great against is shooting guards. They allow the 10th most DKFP to the position.

Since this game has a large spread and the Spurs are playing on the tail end of a back-to-back, we can’t rule out the potential that this game will turn into a blowout. If this is the case, both Trey Lyles ($2,600) and Lonnie Walker ($2,200) would stand to gain playing time and production in garbage time. On Saturday, the Spurs beat the Hornets by 24. Lyles and Walker both played extra minutes with Walker scoring 17.75 DKFP and Lyles put up 19.75 DKFP.


Lakers

We have two choices for the Captain and they shouldn’t come as a surprise. The guys I am looking at here are LeBron James ($20,400 CP/$13,600) and Anthony Davis ($19,200 CP/$12,800). Both are strong plays, but I slightly prefer AD for a cheaper salary. He seems to be completely over the glute injury that forced him to miss a handful of games in January and no longer has a minutes restriction. He also has the better matchup of the two Lakers’ All-Stars since the Spurs allow the third most DKFP to power forwards.

As a GPP play, there is upside in Kyle Kuzma ($5,000). He’s anything but consistent although he has upside. In recent games, we have seen him score as many as 35.25 DKFP in a loss to the Trail Blazers. Kuzma also typically plays in garbage time, so we should see decent minutes from him even if this game ends up becoming one-sided as the spread suggests might happen.

Quietly, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope ($3,600) is having a solid season for the Lakers. He’s been the butt of jokes over the last couple seasons and those have fallen into oblivion. KCP has been one of the best shooters in the league this season and is hitting threes a career-best 43.1% clip. He’s been a great complement to LeBron and Davis in the offense as a floor spacer. Caldwell-Pope is also playing well lately, averaging 20.23 DKFP in his last 10 games.


THE OUTCOME

The Lakers are a massive favorite in this game. They are favored by 12 points and it’s hard to argue with it since the Spurs are playing on the second leg of a back-to-back. In general, fading the Spurs this season has been a wise strategy. They are one of the worst teams in the league against the spread, going 21-26-2 ATS. San Antonio is 8-15 on the road this season, so everything points towards the Lakers winning this game comfortably.

Final Score: Los Angeles 120, San Antonio 106

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is gehrenberg) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

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