For the third time this season, the Rockets and Jazz are meeting. In the first two games, the road team came out on top. Oddly enough, the one game won by Houston, James Harden ($12,800) was resting. In the win by the Jazz, Bojan Bogdanovic ($8,600) hit a buzzer beater three to win by one. These teams typically play extremely tight games, so this figures to be a fun game.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.
FIVE BETTING TRENDS— The Jazz have lost six of their last seven games on the second leg of a back-to-back against the Rockets
— The Rockets have covered the spread in seven of their last nine road games against the Jazz.
— Each of the Rockets’ last five games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total points line.
— Rudy Gobert has scored the first basket in two of the Jazz’s last three home games against the Rockets.
— Russell Westbrook has scored 32+ points in five of his last six appearances in road games.
Stats provided by DraftKings Sportsbook
RocketsWhenever the Rockets are playing in a Showdown contest we are usually deciding between James Harden ($19,200 CP/$12,800) or Russell Westbrook ($17,400 CP/$11,600) as captain. Tonight isn’t any different and I have leaned towards Russ as the strong play in recent games. He’s always a bit cheaper and the production between the two All-Stars hasn’t been much different in recent games. In fact, Westbrook is averaging slightly more DKFP over the last 10 games. In this timeframe, he’s averaging 57.25 DKFP compared to 56.85 DKFP for Harden.
The one player on the injury report here is Eric Gordon ($4,000). He’s missed the last three games dating to before the All-Star break, but would make for a decent value option if playing and starting. Gordon recently moved back into the Rockets’ starting lineup, a role he’s averaging 25.54 DKFP in. If he’s out Austin Rivers ($2,200) and Ben McLemore ($2,400) are viable plays for cheap.
The newest player on this roster is Jeff Green ($2,600). In his first game with the Rockets, he played 24 minutes and scored 24.5 DKFP. It’s not exactly clear how he’s going to fit into the rotation moving forward, but we could see Green play a bigger role than he played in his first game with Houston. If this is the case, he’s priced much too cheap.
JazzAfter oddly resting in the first game after the All-Star break, Mike Conley ($6,400) is expected to play tonight. After missing most of the season because of a hamstring injury, he’s finally found his groove and looks to be back to the form we came to expect when he was on the Grizzlies. Conley has scored at least 32 DKFP in every game since taking back the starting point guard job.
Despite not playing well the last time he faced the Rockets, I think this sets up as a good spot for Rudy Gobert ($10,200). With Houston going to a small ball approach, it doesn’t have the size to matchup against Gobert. It isn’t hard to envision a scenario where he dominates down low and grabs all the rebounds. A 20-20 game is very much in play if we get a ceiling game from the two-time Defensive Player of the Year.
For some of the same reasons I like Gobert, Tony Bradley ($1,800) could have a decent game for a cheap price and low ownership. Per minute, he’s a decent fantasy producer, averaging 10.12 DKFP off the bench in 9.6 minutes per game. He isn’t my favorite cheap play in this game, but his cheap salary allows the flexibility to fit in some of the expensive stars in this game.
THE OUTCOMEThe Jazz are home, but they are also playing on the tail end of a back-to-back. This should be a tight game because games are between the Rockets and Jazz, so I’ll side with Houston, who is getting points. Even in a loss, it’s possible the Rockets cover the short spread. The last time this teams played, Utah won by one on a last second shot.
Final Score: Houston 116, Utah 115
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