Happy Tuesday, folks! We have a star-studded 10-game slate tonight. Let’s waste no time and jump right into it. Here are some players to target at every position and price range tonight.
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,800) – Antetokounmpo is playing really well to start the season, averaging 1.55 fantasy points per minute and sporting a healthy 33.8 percent usage rate while accounting for 26.9 percent of the Bucks’ assists and 15.8 percent of the rebounds. He has five double-doubles, which increases upside due to the DraftKings’ scoring bonus, and he has flirted with a triple-double on multiple occasions. Going back to the 2015-16 season (16-game sample), Antetokounmpo has averaged 48.31 fantasy points against the Cleveland Cavaliers, exceeding expectations by an average of 6.82 points. He faced them in the second game of this season and scored 63 DraftKings points, finishing two rebounds and two assists shy of a triple-double. The Cavaliers come into this game ranked dead last in defensive rating, so Giannis is my favorite five-figure priced player this evening.
Other Options – Russell Westbrook ($10,700), Damian Lillard ($8,700), Ricky Rubio ($6,900)
Dennis Smith Jr. ($5,200) – Smith leads the Dallas Mavericks with a 28.1 percent usage rate, averaging 13.1 shot attempts per game. He also accounts for 29.3 percent of the team’s assists. This should be a paced-up matchup for the Mavericks, as the Washington Wizards are playing at the ninth-fastest pace, which should create extra shot opportunities for Smith. Although he has struggled shooting in some games this season, Smith has been shooting much better in recent games, averaging 40 percent from the field in his last three. His price is reasonable considering the circumstances, so taking a shot on him tonight makes sense.
Other Options – Jerian Grant ($5,000), Emmanuel Mudiay ($4,700)
Victor Oladipo ($8,000) – Oladipo comes in at a very steep price, but he is the type of player that can go off in any given game and win you a tournament. He leads Indiana with a 30.5 percent usage rate and has attempted at least 20 shots in each of his last three games. The Pacers are currently playing at the 10th-fastest pace, while the New Orleans Pelicans are playing at the eighth-fastest, so this definitely should be a paced-up matchup. Oladipo has played well this season, exceeding expectations 60 percent of the time by an average of 3.86 points. The Pelicans have allowed +1.21 points above expectations to this position, so this is also a nice matchup for Oladipo.
Other Options – Bradley Beal ($8,300)
Gary Harris ($5,200) – If you are looking at the game log and notice that Harris played just 20 minutes in his last game, there is no need to be concerned, as the game was a blowout and the starters sat in the fourth quarter. Harris has played consistent minutes for most of the season, averaging 31.2 minutes per game. This is the type of matchup that I like targeting Harris in as the Denver Nuggets face the Brooklyn Nets, who play at the fastest pace in the league, rank 27th in defensive rating and are on the second night of a back-to-back. They have also allowed 1.87 points above expectations to shooting guards. Harris has 40+ fantasy point upside, and if there is a game where he can hit his ceiling, it is this one.
Other Options – Donovan Mitchell ($4,600), J.J. Redick ($4,500)
Paul George ($7,400) – George has topped 40 fantasy points in each of his last two games and continues to play well for the Oklahoma City Thunder, averaging 1.07 fantasy points per minute. He is sporting a healthy 27.1 percent usage rate for the season, but over his last four games, he has had at least a 28.5 percent usage rate in each of those games. George draws a favorable matchup against the Sacramento Kings, who have allowed 3.51 points above expectations to opposing small forwards and rank 28th in defensive rating. He remains reasonably priced for how he is playing and the upside he brings, making him an interesting play in all formats this evening.
Other Options – LeBron James ($11,400), Khris Middleton ($7,000)
DeMarre Carroll ($5,500) – Carroll is having a nice start to the season for the Nets, averaging nearly 30 fantasy points per game and 1.04 fantasy points per minute. He does not score a ton of real points on a consistent basis but does increase his upside with his peripheral stats, as he averages 6.4 boards and 1.9 blocks per game. He is eligible at both the small forward and power forward, but I would rather roster him at the small forward slot. The Nuggets are allowing 1.3 points above expectations to the position and rank 22nd in defensive rating, so this is a favorable matchup for Carroll.
Other Options – Tyreke Evans ($6,200), Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,100), Harrison Barnes ($5,800)
Kristaps Porzingis ($9,400) – Porzingis continues to play on another level but remains under $10K, making him a very enticing option. He has topped 53 fantasy points in four of his last five games and has now topped 45 fantasy points in all but two games, exceeding expectations 78 percent of the time by an average of 6.26 points. He has been productive against the Hornets in the past, exceeding expectations by an average of 2.21 points in 11 games. The Hornets are a solid defensive team and slow the pace down, but Porzingis is just too good and can manage to be productive in these situations. He leads the league with a 35.7 percent usage rate and averages well over a fantasy point per minute.
Other Options – Anthony Davis ($11,200), Blake Griffin ($8,600), Carmelo Anthony ($6,900)
Paul Millsap ($6,800) – Millsap might not be the cheapest power forward on the board, but he is at a price tag that is tough to ignore. He is coming off of a poor performance and has not been consistently good this season, but he has displayed his upside in recent games, scoring over 40 fantasy points twice in the last five games. In addition, over his last two games, he has over a 30 percent usage rate in each of those contests. He draws a very good matchup against the Nets, who have allowed 11.88 points above expectations to opposing power forwards and rank 27th in defensive rating. Millsap should take advantage of this frontcourt and dominate the boards, as the Nets allow the most rebounds per game.
Other Options – Lauri Markkanen ($6,300), Thaddeus Young ($5,700), Dario Saric ($4,300)
DeMarcus Cousins ($11,500) – Boogie leads the Pelicans with a 33 percent usage rate — one of the highest in the league — and also accounts for 26.5 percent of the team’s assists and 19.5 percent of the rebounds. He draws a very good matchup against the Pacers, who have allowed 4.74 points above expectations to opposing centers and rank 21st in defensive rating. They also play up in pace and give up 44.2 rebounds per game with a minus-1.4 differential. Not that it even matters, as Cousins has proven to be matchup proof. He is averaging 1.63 fantasy points per minute, and even at this price tag, he should be considered.
Other Options – Nikola Jokic ($8,500), Rudy Gobert ($7,900), DeAndre Jordan ($7,000)
Marcin Gortat ($5,500) – The Washington Wizards take on the Dallas Mavericks, who surrender the third-most rebounds per game with a minus-4.7 differential and have allowed 4.43 points above expectations to opposing centers. In addition, they rank 29th in defensive rating. Gortat should have his way with this frontcourt and should dominate the glass. He is averaging 31.3 minutes per game, so the minutes are secure, and he comes at a reasonable price considering his upside. There are a lot of center options tonight, but if you want to pay down at this position, he makes a lot of sense.
Other Options – John Henson ($4,700), Richaun Holmes ($4,300, if he starts and has no minutes restrictions)
Note: Keep a close eye on news prior to lock as this could open up some value plays that were not considered early in the day.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Armando28) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.