Andre Drummond

I know he already missed a game on Friday with the same ailment, but I knew I’d have to kick off this article by discussing Anthony Davis’ ($9,800) presence on the Lakers’ injury report. Now, considering Davis has basically spent the entire season as “probable”, it takes something very special to get my attention when it comes to this specific matter, yet that’s exactly what we have. I, like most people who ever went to second grade, learned that the gluteus maximus is your butt many years ago. However, I can honestly say that I’ve never seen it on an official National Basketball Association injury report. It was delightful and I want to take the time to thank Los Angeles’ PR department and its medical staff. Davis is questionable to play on Saturday.

Now that that’s out of the way, let’s break down this evening’s six-game featured slate on DraftKings

For up-to-the-minute news, analysis and lineups, download the DK Live app. You also can follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive.

Set your lineups here: NBA $225K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st]


 


POINT GUARD

Stud

Lonzo Ball, NO at BOS, $6,700 – While some of Ball’s value could conceivably be tied up in the status of Jrue Holiday ($7,900; doubtful), I think I’m fine rolling out the former second-overall pick regardless of whether his veteran teammate is active. Across his past six starts – three of which Holiday’s been playing alongside him – Ball’s averaged over 36 minutes a night and exactly 1.22 DKFP per 60 seconds on the court. I’m not a math wizard by any means, but that level of efficiency at that volume of workload seems like a really nice combination. It doesn’t hurt that Ball’s salary has fallen $600 from Friday evening, either. Other Option: Kemba Walker ($7,600)

Value

Rajon Rondo, LAL at OKC, $3,800 – Though it wouldn’t seem like Davis’ aforementioned injury would have all that much impact on a point guard, the fluctuations in Los Angeles’ rotations tend to benefit Rondo. LeBron James ($10,000) (EDITOR’S NOTE: LEBRON JAMES (ILLNESS) IS OUT TONIGHT) can’t play 48 minutes per night – especially on a back-to-back – and while his stretches of activity on the court would usually be staggered with Davis so that one All-Star remains playing at all times, there are now gaps without a single high-usage option in yellow. That’s where Rondo steps into a commanding role. The veteran owns a 24.6% usage rate and is averaging 1.25 DKFP per minute without James or Davis on the floor in 2019-20. If Davis is out again, Rondo should be able to hit value with a price tag below $4K.

Other Option: Dennis Schroder ($5,600)


SHOOTING GUARD

Stud

Zach LaVine, CHI at DET, $8,300 – LaVine appears to be in the midst of a red-hot shooting streak and I don’t think the Pistons are going to be where his productivity comes to an end. Detroit’s allowed 115.1 points per 100 possessions across its past 10 games – the second-highest rate of any team in the Eastern Conference within that span. Not surprisingly, the Pistons are also surrendering a whopping 49.5% opponent field goal rate during this same stretch, which is the second-worst mark in the entire league. So, yeah, they don’t seem like the collection of bodies that are going to slow down a guy averaging 32.5 points over his last four starts. Other Option: Josh Richardson ($6,400)

Value

Marcus Smart, BOS vs. NO, $4,800 – Smart’s DFS outputs have been inconsistent since his return from a lengthy eye infection, however, his workload has remained relatively stable. Despite moving back and forth from the bench to the starting lineup, Smart’s logged over 30 minutes in five of Boston’s past six games. He’s obviously not the focal point of what the Celtics do on offense, yet at the same time, that’s a lot of volume for an asset priced below $5K and one who’s playing for the team with the slate’s highest implied point total.

Other Option: Brandon Knight ($3,900)


SMALL FORWARD

Stud

EDITOR’S NOTE: LEBRON JAMES (ILLNESS) IS OUT TONIGHT

LeBron James, LAL at OKC, $10,000 – Understandably, this is going to be one of the slate’s chalkiest plays; however, while you could make an argument for Luka Doncic ($12,400) at reduced ownership, the price differential between the two All-Stars is just too significant. James is the dictionary definition of a cash game option. His salary is inexplicably down $1K after managing 69.0 DKFP in Friday night’s victory over Dallas and, if Davis remains on the sideline, he’s liable to do something similar against Oklahoma City. James possesses a 37.8% usage rate and an has averaged 1.64 DKFP per minute played without Davis so far in 2019-20.

Other Option: Brandon Ingram ($8,400)

Value

Josh Hart, NO at BOS, $4,800 – If Ball’s viability doesn’t hinge on Holiday’s health, Hart is in the exact opposite boat. The Villanova product has been thrust back into the DFS limelight with a trio of recent starts made in place of his injured teammate, and as he’s often done in the role, Hart’s thrived. In fact, so far in 2019-20, the 24-year-old is averaging 28.6 DKFP in the seven opportunities he’s had in the Pelicans’ starting five, exceeding 6x value on five of those occasions. His .613 true shooting percentage in January doesn’t hurt Hart’s case, either.


POWER FORWARD

Stud

Al Horford, PHI at DAL, $6,700 – Horford was essentially a “free space” on Thursday’s slate, getting the opportunity to start at center for Philadelphia in place of the injured Joel Embiid (hand). Honestly, he sort of has that vibe once again. Yes, his salary has adjusted slightly, yet I was prepared to have to pay over $7K for the services of the veteran this evening. The fact that I don’t have to do that speaks to Horford’s value. So far this season, when the 33-year-old hasn’t had to play alongside Embiid, he’s produced 1.13 DKFP per minute of action. That easily trumps his 0.63 DKFP average when sharing the court with the 76ers’ All-Star big man. Other Option: Tobias Harris ($6,800)

Value

Jerami Grant, DEN vs. CLE, $4,900 – Grant’s price tag has shot up after a spot-start on Wednesday saw him collect 15 points, five rebounds and three blocks. Despite that, I still think he’s at a relatively fair salary considering his opportunity and his matchup. Paul Millsap (knee) has already been ruled out for tonight’s contest against the Cavaliers and there are few teams better suited to allow a huge DFS performance to a cheap interior player. To wit, no squad in the NBA has conceded more opponent field goals per game inside the restricted area than Cleveland has (21.0). If Grant sees anything close to the 34 minutes he saw versus Dallas, he should have no trouble producing.

Other Option: Kyle Kuzma ($5,400)


CENTER

Stud

Andre Drummond, DET vs. CHI, $10,100 – I understand that Drummond’s back-to-back 20/20 games each came against the lowly Cavaliers, but if the former All-Star is going to keep playing the entire second-half of games, you’re going to need to have him in your lineups. Also, it’s crucial to note the absence of Wendell Carter Jr. (ankle) in tonight’s contest. Where Chicago owns a respectable 50.1% total rebounding rate when Carter has been on the court in 2019-20, that figure falls to a nightmarish 45.0% when he’s been unavailable. Drummond might get 30 rebounds. Who knows? Other Option: Nikola Jokic ($9,700)

Value

Anthony Tolliver, POR vs. MIL, $3,000 – You’re only going to be stooping to Tolliver’s level if Hassan Whiteside ($8,600) is ruled out of tonight’s meeting with the Bucks due to an illness, but if that does happen, I simply don’t see how Tolliver doesn’t log upwards of 30 minutes. Portland has been decimated by interior injuries in 2019-20, as the team is already without Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins and Skal Labissiere. Tolliver’s only averaged 15.6 DKFP in his eight prior starts this season, however, it’s a low bar to clear to reach value. Download the DK Live app and follow DK Live on Twitter @dklive for up-to-the-minute news on Whiteside’s status.

Other Option: Jaxson Hayes ($3,800)

Set your lineups here: NBA $225K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st]


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA) or 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN) or 1-800-522-4700 (NH).
NH/NJ/WV/IN/PA only. 21+ (18+ NH). Eligibility Restrictions Apply. See website for details.