It’s rare I’d ever get a chance to say this under non-basketball circumstances, but the eyes of the world will be on Milwaukee this Saturday night. We’ve got a pretty standard six-game featured slate on DraftKings tonight, yet the clear crown jewel of the schedule is 76ers-Bucks. Four months ago, there wasn’t a soul alive that didn’t believe this matchup would be a preview of the Eastern Conference Finals. Now? Well, let’s just say that Philadelphia has some things it’s needs to prove away from the Wells Fargo Center.
Let’s break down this primetime gem and everything else going on in the NBA position-by-position.
StudRussell Westbrook, HOU at UTA, $9,800 – Westbrook was underwhelming in his first start back from the All-Star Break, but that clearly had more to do with game script than anything else. The former MVP logged only 30 minutes in Houston’s 135-105 dismantling of Golden State, yet he still managed to collect 21 points, 10 assists and five rebounds in that shortened window of action. Tonight’s tilt should definitely be more competitive and that means a high ceiling for a guy producing a team-best 1.60 DKFP per 60 seconds dating back to Jan. 1. The fact that Westbrook’s averaging 64.1 DKFP the past six times he’s been priced under $10K doesn’t hurt, either. Other Option: Luka Doncic ($10,200)
ValueTerry Rozier, CHA vs. BRK, $5,300 – There are a few important things to note with the struggling Rozier. One, this is the least expensive the veteran has been at any point in 2019-20. Two, the Nets are one of the better matchups in the league that a point guard could draw. Though Brooklyn’s pace has slowed significantly so far in February, the team is still allowing the third-most DKFP per game to opposing PGs. Considering Rozier’s locked-in volume, he should have no trouble reaching value this evening.
Other Option: Kendrick Nunn ($4,500)
StudZach LaVine, CHI vs. PHO, $8,900 – Few players in the league can hold a can to the volume LaVine steps into each and every night. The former lottery pick comes into Saturday’s slate attempting the 10th-most shots per 100 possessions of anyone in the NBA (27.3), he owns the 10th-highest usage rate (31.4%), and, across his past nine games specifically, he’s even averaging 10.1 potential assists. The ball is simply always in LaVine’s hands and he rarely leaves the court. These are traits that should play well against a Suns squad on the second leg of a back-to-back. Other Option: Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,700)
ValueJosh Richardson, PHI at MIL, $4,400 – While some might shy away from Richardson with Ben Simmons ($9,200) available to play this evening, the wing’s salary has yet to catch up with his recently expanded role. Was it okay to have Richardson priced below $5K immediately following his return from injury? Of course. He was on a workload restriction. However, after logging 39 minutes in Thursday’s OT win over Brooklyn, that is clearly no longer the case. He’s not a top option within the 76ers’ offensive hierarchy, but he’s cheap and averaging 27.3 DKFP per start in 2019-20. The Bucks leading the NBA in pace across their past 10 contests helps his value, too.
Other Option: Cam Reddish ($4,100)
StudMiles Bridges, CHA vs. BRK, $6,200 – It would appear that the Hornets have a new man at the top of their offensive pecking order. Bridges has seen his opportunities expand in the past few weeks, culminating with season-highs in field goal attempts (23) and usage rate (33.9%) against the Bulls on Thursday. Still, these trends date back to the end of January, with Bridges averaging 35.7 DKFP in each of his past eight starts. That’s also a span that’s seen the sophomore score at least 20 points on six different occasions. You have to keep riding with the Rising Stars MVP, right? Other Option: Caris LeVert ($7,000)
ValueKevin Huerter, ATL vs. DAL, $5,400 – Here’s a fun fact: no player in the NBA is averaging more minutes than Huerter across their past 10 games (38.2). That’s important to note as the sophomore has not only been under constant restrictions in 2019-20, but also because projecting that sort of volume in a game with an implied total above 240 points is extremely tantalizing. Despite the heavy workload, Huerter’s remained a bit of an inconsistent DFS asset, but his opportunity if difficult to ignore with the Mavericks surrendering 116.3 points per 100 possessions since Jan. 28.
StudGiannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs. PHI, $11,200 – I doubt I have to say much to convince you that the most expensive player on the slate – who happens to be the reigning MVP – is a solid play this evening, but here’s what you have to know. For the first time all season, Antetokounmpo’s logged 30-plus minutes in eight-straight starts and he’s exceeded 60.0 DKFP in seven of those games. Though this could be random, it does feel like Mike Budenholzer has slowly been increasing the workload of his starters as of late. Anyway, I’d expect Antetokounmpo to reach that threshold again on Saturday, which translates to a nearly unmatched DFS ceiling. Other Option: Kelly Oubre Jr. ($6,600)
ValueRobert Covington, HOU at UTA, $5,900 – Covington’s value hinges on defensive statistics, which can be a dangerous way to live, but the early returns from his tenure in Houston have been very promising. Covington’s reached 6x value in three of his five appearances with the Rockets and Mike D’Antoni has already shown a willingness to feed the veteran big minutes. I could probably stand to see him a few hundred dollars cheaper, yet Covington’s floor is relatively set-in-stone on this smaller slate.
StudEDITOR’S NOTE: KRISTAPS PORZINGIS (REST) IS OUT TONIGHT
Other Option: Deandre Ayton ($8,700)
Kristaps Porzingis, DAL at ATL, $8,000 – The Latvian is sure to be a popular play this evening considering how the Hawks have bled fantasy points to interior players in 2019-20, but Porzingis should be worth the hype. The 24-year-old has exceeded 55.0 DKFP in five of his last seven starts, a span of time that’s seen Porzingis average an eye-popping 1.51 DKFP per minute of action. Throw in the fact that Atlanta sports the Eastern Conference’s worst defensive rating (117.1) and lowest total rebounding rate (47.4%) across its past 10 contests and you’ve got a matchup made in heaven.
ValueBrook Lopez, MIL vs. PHI, $5,000 – Lopez can sometimes disappear playing next to Antetokounmpo and Khris Middleton ($8,100), however, he’s currently in the midst of his best month of the season, and as previously mentioned, his minutes are up. So far in February, Lopez is averaging 15.1 points, 3.6 rebounds and 2.9 blocks per game. He should be needed to patrol the paint against a very large 76ers’ front line, and most importantly, this is about as inexpensive as Lopez’s price point has been the past two months.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.