NASCAR® Driver Fantasy Rankings: AAA Texas 500

WATCH: NASCAR PRICE CHECK AAA TEXAS 500


Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by the value of each driver.

(FPPK = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

RankDriverSalary
1Martin Truex, Jr.$11,000
2Kyle Busch$10,600
3Kyle Larson$9,700
4Kevin Harvick$9,800
5Chase Elliott$9,100

1. Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,000) – The No. 78 car is fast everywhere, but it’s on another level at intermediate tracks. After a severe penalty forced Truex to forfeit the lead at Kansas, he rebounded to win the race. No one does that. (6.4 FPPK)

2. Kyle Busch ($10,600) – By now, we should all know the theme for the No. 18 car this season. He’s a top-three car piling up fast laps, or he’s subject to unfortunate events. At Texas, Busch suffered damage on pit road and was a non-factor. (5.7 FPPK)

3. Kyle Larson ($9,700) – In the spring, he sliced through the field, earning 30 place differential points at Texas. That’s special at a one-groove track, but not when you have a fast car and a great driver. It’s expected, not special. A top-five is expected this weekend. (5.1 FPPK)

4. Kevin Harvick ($9,800) – Way back in April, Harvick was fast at Texas. His speed disappeared soon after or the Toyotas found their rhythm. It’s likely the latter, but Harvick is catching up. He has been fast at every playoff intermediate track race. (4.4 FPPK)

5. Chase Elliott ($9,100) – Last week was the week. The stars aligned at Martinsville, but Elliott couldn’t get the win. This underscores how hard it is to win a NASCAR race at the Cup level. Winning a Cup race is one of the hardest feats in sports. He’ll get another try this week, and his car is fast enough to make it happen. (4.2 FPPK)


RankDriverSalary
6Jimmie Johnson$9,600
7Ryan Blaney$8,500
8Joey Logano$9,400
9Erik Jones$8,000
10Brad Keselowski$10,000

6. Jimmie Johnson ($9,600) – In the spring, Johnson earned his seventh Texas win. It was another victory after starting from the back, but like many of those wins, he was aided by the NASCAR Gods. There were four debris cautions, two stage cautions and a competition caution. There was only one real caution. (3.8 FPPK)

7. Ryan Blaney ($8,500) – In the spring, Blaney was fast at Kansas. He was fast in the fall Kansas race, too. In the spring, Blaney was the fastest driver at Texas, but he coughed up a possible win by sliding his car through his pit stall late in the race. He should be fast this weekend. (3.1 FPPK)

8. Joey Logano ($9,400) – The Penske Fords have been competitive at the short, flat tracks. They might as well be Xfinity cars at the 1.5-mile tracks. Logano is a top-10 driver at best unless he messes with pit road strategy. (3.3 FPPK)

9. Erik Jones ($8,000) – After a nice run this summer highlighted by his near win at Bristol, Jones has cooled off. He’s finished outside of the top-25 in his last three races. (3.8 FPPK)

10. Brad Keselowski ($10,000) – Team Penske doesn’t have the speed to win this race straight up, but backward pitting at Texas might work. With a freshly repaved surface, track position means everything. Keselowski turned track position into 104 laps led at a single-groove track in Michigan in August. (4.5 FPPK)


RankDriverSalary
11Matt Kenseth$8,900
12Denny Hamlin$8,800
13Jamie McMurray$8,100
14Clint Bowyer$8,700
15AJ Allmendinger$6,500

11. Matt Kenseth ($8,900) – He’s been much better at the short tracks this season. Kenseth can earn a top-10 finish by turning circles with the others, but it’s unlikely that he leads laps or runs fast laps. (3.5 FPPK)

12. Denny Hamlin ($8,800)NASCAR might be the most emotional daily fantasy sport. After last week’s unfortunate events, some DFS players might refuse to play Hamlin. He hasn’t been great at the intermediate tracks, but it’s a JGR Toyota. He could be worth a flier. (4.1 FPPK)

13. Jamie McMurray ($8,100) – When Jamie Mac qualifies around 10th, you’ll say to yourself, “no way.” This could be a lap-turner. Place differential points might be rare. Finishing position points could be at a premium. McMurray staying in 10th all day could be the key to a GPP win. (3.2 FPPK)

14. Clint Bowyer ($8,700) – The SHR Fords are getting faster every week. Bowyer hasn’t really done much this season, but he has a good a car. As long as he’s in a top-notch ride, he’s a threat to put up top-10 daily fantasy NASCAR points each week. (3.3 FPPK)

15. AJ Allmendinger ($6,500) – Martinsville is Allmendinger’s best race track, but Texas is not that far behind. He has 13 top-25 finishes in his last 14 Texas races (average finish of 17th). He clearly likes this track. (3.6 FPPK)


RankDriverSalary
16Dale Earnhardt, Jr.$7,900
17Kasey Kahne$8,200
18Aric Almirola$6,200
19Austin Dillon$7,700
20Kurt Busch$8,400

16. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ($7,900) – Sentimentality shouldn’t influence Junior’s fantasy popularity. He’s been serviceable at intermediate tracks this season. He’s earned top-20s in 11 of 13 intermediate track races. His best finish was fifth at Texas in the spring. (3.0 FPPK)

17. Kasey Kahne ($8,200) – The clock is ticking for one more win. It’s unlikely that Kahne will be a contender in the No. 95 car next year. He has a chance for one more win this weekend. Kahne has three eighth-place finishes in his last five Texas races. He was running inside the top-15 until suffering a broken axle late in the spring race. (3.2 FPPK)

18. Aric Almirola ($6,200) – In his return to Kansas, the track where Almirola broke his back months earlier, Almirola earned a top-10 finish. This is his audition for a 2018 ride. He’s focused, and his car has been a consistent top-20 ride all season. (4.5 FPPK)

19. Austin Dillon ($7,700) – The man wears a cowboy hat, he better run well at Texas. His median average running position at the intermediate tracks is 15th this season. In a possible lap-tuner, 15th will do. Don’t worry about the first Texas race, a mechanical issue ruined his day early. (3.6 FPPK)

20. Kurt Busch ($8,400) – Kansas looks better than it was. He finished second, but his average running position was 15th. Take away the late wrecks and Busch scores 26 fewer fantasy points. Texas doesn’t look like a wreck fest. (3.0 FPPK)

 


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