Pearce Dietrich takes a look at odds on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NASCAR Coca-Cola 600 at Charlotte Motor Speedway, which begins on Sunday at 6 p.m. ET. Sports bettors can get in on the action by downloading the DK Sportsbook app or heading over to the DraftKings Sportsbook website.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Coca-Cola 600 Bets
Race WinnerMartin Truex, Jr. (+600)
His numbers at Charlotte are unbelievable. Over the past eight races at Charlotte, Truex has the highest driver rating. He’s averaging 120 laps led per race and has three wins over that span. Last year, the switch to the new high downforce package did not disturb his dominance. While leading the race in stage 1, Truex blew a tire and wrecked into the wall, but he still managed to lead the most laps and win the 2019 Coca-Cola 600.
Chase Elliott (+900)
The No. 9 car is fast and his pit crew is fast, but they’re a little too fast. Elliott was destroying the field at Las Vegas before a loose wheel ruined his day. At Phoenix, he led the most laps, but he had to pit for a loose wheel. At Darlington, the pit crew got their act together and helped move Elliott to the front. On the last run, Elliott was on fresher tires and was chasing down Denny Hamlin, but Kyle Busch accidentally wrecked Elliott. If Elliott can avoid bad luck, then he can win this crown jewel race.
Ryan Blaney (+2500)
Darlington was rough, but Darlington is literally a rough track. Charlotte marks a return to the traditional intermediate tracks. The last cookie cutter 1.5 mile race was Las Vegas. Blaney would have won the Las Vegas race if it weren’t for a meaningless Ross Chastain spin with four laps remaining in the race. These odds are too heavily influenced by Darlington, and Charlotte and Darlington are not comparable.
Top 5 FinishKyle Busch (-115)
There are two outcomes on Sunday: Busch earns a top 5 or wrecks out. There are no alternatives in between. This is completely a binary proposition that heavily favors the top 5 outcome. In a typical race, Kyle Busch or his crew can make a mistake and earn a poor finish, but this is not a typical race. In a 600-mile race, Kyle Busch can mess up several times and still have plenty of laps to bail himself out. In a 400-mile Darlington race, Busch overcame failing inspection and hitting the wall. He was unable to overcome a loose wheel in stage 3, but if he had another 200 miles he would have been fine.
Martin Truex, Jr. (-112)
The Charlotte numbers check out, but so do his current form numbers. The stat sheet doesn’t say it, but the fans that actually watch the races know that Truex has been really good this season. The races in question are Las Vegas, Fontana and Phoenix. At Las Vegas, Truex went from having the lead to mired in traffic because he had to pit twice for a loose wheel. In traffic, he suffered damage on a restart. The next week at Fontana, a bad pit stop due to his tire changer’s hand cramps again mired him in traffic, where he suffered damage running in the pack. At Phoenix, Truex was in sixth with 30 laps left when he was dumped on a restart. Be careful staring at numbers on a stat page without context.
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Erik Jones (-125) vs Ricky Stenhouse Jr.This bet seems to be based on track history. It is true that Stenhouse is averaging a 13th place finish over the past six races at Charlotte, and Jones averages a 21st place finish at Charlotte. However, Jones has only raced at Charlotte four times, so that number is skewed by a 40th place finish in last year’s Memorial Day race that was due to a tire issue that affected every Toyota except Kyle Busch. Jones is coming into this race with back-to-back top 10s. He’s been mistake free and his pit crew has been fast. Stenhouse on the other hand, is in inferior equipment compared to years past. Also, Stenhouse has wrecked in four of six races this season.
Car Number of Race Winner is Even (-225)This is a fun bet, and a safe bet. It covers Kyle Busch, Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, Jimmie Johnson, Erik Jones and Ryan Blaney. The only favorites that it misses are Truex, Hamlin and Elliott. It’s not a sure thing, but the odds are in the favor of the field versus three cars.
Stage 1 Winner
Kevin Harvick (+700)Winning stage 1 will come down to qualifying and pit stops. It is very difficult to predict who will be the best on pit road outside of Denny Hamlin, the owner of the No. 1 pit stall. Predicting qualifying is risky, but Kevin Harvick won six poles last season (three at intermediate tracks). Harvick’s crew chief, Rodney Childers, is not afraid to trim a car out and let Harvick battle a wrecking loose race car, if that means Harvick starts on the pole.
Top Car By Manufacturer
Chase Elliott +225The only competitive Chevys are his teammates, and they have not consistently earned top finishes this season. Bowman has been strong in races where he could lean on the high groove near the wall, but that will not be an option at Charlotte. Byron has shown speed, but his best finish is 10th. Johnson has been consistent at Charlotte, but his average finish of seventh over the past eight Charlotte races falls short of a potential race win by Chase Elliott.
Best Finish Group F
Ryan Blaney +190 Best Finish in Group ETyler Reddick has been fun to watch, but it’s hard to imagine that he puts together a 400-lap race when the rookie’s only earned one top 10 finish this season. Matt Kenseth finished 10th in a race where drivers were taking it easy. The intensity picked up in the second Darlington race and Kenseth finished 30th. Bowyer was gifted track position by the invert and held that position throughout the second Darlington race, but when he lost his track position due to a barrage of blocks by Ryan Newman, Boywer wrecked. Blaney is not a sure thing, but without a doubt, he has the best car and crew chief in this group.
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