NASCAR: Toyota / Save Mart 350

WATCH: NASCAR Price Check — Gander RV 400

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for Sunday’s Gander RV 400 at Dover International Speedway. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

RANKDRIVERSALARY
1Kyle Busch$12,400
2Joey Logano$11,800
3Denny Hamlin$9,500
4Clint Bowyer$8,500
5Aric Almirola$8,300

1. Kyle Busch ($12,400) – It is undeniable he has been the best racer in the best car in 2019. However, he has not been the best DFS play. Even when Busch scores the most points, his high price tag bumps him out of the optimal lineup. (6.9 fppk)

2. Joey Logano ($11,800) – At Texas, the most recent intermediate track race, Logano had the fastest car. Unfortunately, he earned three pit road penalties and ruined any chance he had of winning. (5.0 fppk)

3. Denny Hamlin ($9,500) – For the past several years, Hamlin has been an afterthought at intermediate tracks. He only competed at the plate tracks and short tracks. DFS players no longer can write off Hamlin. He overcame two penalties in his intermediate track win at Texas. (4.7 fppk)

4. Clint Bowyer ($8,500) – When the spring schedule switched over to short tracks, Bowyer came to life. The short-track standout finished seventh at Martinsville, seventh at Bristol and third at Richmond. Sandwiched in between is a second-place finish at an intermediate track in Texas. (4.1 fppk)

5. Aric Almirola ($8,300) – When Kevin Harvick’s pit crew failed to secure a lug nut at Dover this past fall, Almirola inherited the lead and was on his way to victory. A late race caution forced Almirola into the predicament of whether to pit or not. He chose poorly. (3.7 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
6Chase Elliott$9,800
7Kurt Busch$8,900
8Brad Keselowski$10,700
9Martin Truex, Jr.$10,200
10Kevin Harvick$11,300

6. Chase Elliott ($9,800) – He won at Dover this past fall, but there was a lot of luck involved. He needed a loose wheel to derail Harvick and a caution with eight laps left to sabotage Almirola. Luck aside, Elliott has earned top five fantasy points in three of the past four Dover races. (5.1 fppk)

7. Kurt Busch ($8,900)NASCAR has not fixed the qualifying format, and Busch has struggled with the format and qualifying trim. His average starting position this season ranks 20th. It’s hard to avoid playing Kurt Busch when he’s starting 20th or deeper in the field. (5.3 fppk)

8. Brad Keselowski ($10,700) – The real 2019 season opened at Atlanta with a Keselowski win. He followed that race with a second-place finish at Las Vegas, a third at Fontana and another win at Martinsville. After that, Keselowski admitted the team would experiment with parts. Since Martinsville, Keselowski’s average finish is 19th. (5.4 fppk)

9. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,200) – In the most recent real race (Richmond), Truex torched the field. The win is a step in the right direction, but the No. 19 JGR car is far from figuring everything out. The Richmond win was a product of track history. Truex has owned the Richmond night race. (5.0 fppk)

10. Kevin Harvick ($11,300) – He was a monster at Dover last year, but it’s not last year. Harvick has struggled in the 2019 package. There is a glimmer of hope for Harvick. The one weekend he had elite speed was Bristol — a similar high-banked, concrete track. (4.0 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
11Kyle Larson$8,000
12Daniel Suarez$7,700
13Ryan Newman$7,900
14Ryan Blaney$9,200
15Erik Jones$7,600

11. Kyle Larson ($8,000) – There is a dark cloud following Larson. He has wrecked in each of the past four races and earned DNFs in three of those events. Even when he’s not in the wall, he’s struggling. Under-powered, high-downforce race cars are the antithesis of Larson’s driving style. (3.2 fppk)

12. Daniel Suarez ($7,700) – At Bristol, Suarez earned three penalties and still finished eighth. At Texas, Suarez ranked third in green flag speed and restart speed. This is a new Daniel Suarez. In the second half of the season, he will be a threat to win a race. (4.9 fppk)

13. Ryan Newman ($7,900) – If you haven’t bought a Newman shirt at Walmart this year, I do not know what to tell you. Newman is experiencing a career resurgence after escaping Richard Childress Racing. His average finish is the best it has been in five years. (5.0 fppk)

14. Ryan Blaney ($9,200) – It’s debatable to whether the Penske cars or the JGR cars are the best this season. What’s not debatable is Blaney’s luck. He might have the fastest Penske car, but he has nothing to show for it due to part failures and pit road woes. (4.4 fppk)

15. Erik Jones ($8,700) – On Lap 15 at Texas, Jones spun out and went to the back of the field. He rebounded and methodically worked his way to the front. Through pit strategy, he went on to lead 30 laps in Stage 3 and ended up in the optimal lineup. (4.2 fppk)


RANKDRIVERSALARY
16Paul Menard$6,900
17William Byron$6,700
18Austin Dillon$7,400
19Jimmie Johnson $8,200
20Chris Buescher$7,300

16. Paul Menard ($6,900) – As noted in previous rankings articles, Menard ranks 11th on restarts. In the 2019 package, the only time drivers gain or lose spots in on restarts. In the most recent intermediate track race, Menard scored stage points for Stages 1 and 2. (3.9 fppk)

17. William Byron ($6,700) – At Texas, Byron qualified on the front row. In previous years, qualifying was often dismissed because current form stats and practice speeds were better indicators of race performance. In the 2019 package, all a driver has to do is start up front and hold serve. Byron did this at Texas and was in the optimal lineup. (4.1 fppk)

18. Austin Dillon ($7,400) – The new package has not helped RCR. Daniel Hemric is slugging around in 20th place, and Dillon is still an average 15th-place driver every week. However, if Dillon can run a mistake-free race, he can turn a top-10 starting position into a top-10 finish based on the impossibility of passing in the 2019 package. (3.8 fppk)

19. Jimmie Johnson ($8,200) – No driver in NASCAR history has won more races at Dover than Johnson. Eleven wins at this combination intermediate/short track is nothing to sneeze at. Richard Petty won 200 races, but he only won seven times at Dover. (3.6 fppk)

20. Chris Buescher ($7,300) – If Dover is an intermediate track, that’s good news for Buescher. He has a top-20 finish in each of the four intermediate track races this season. If Dover is comparable to Bristol, that’s more good news. Buescher was on his way to a top-10 finish until a late-race loose wheel ruined his day. (3.5 fppk)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.