NASCAR Pocono Auto Racing

WATCH: NASCAR Price Check — Price Check – CBass Pro Shops NRA Night Race

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for Saturday’s Bass Pro Shops NRA Night Race at Bristol Motor Speedway. The ordering is not based on the highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

1. Kyle Busch ($12,700) – When he wrecked on Lap 1 of the spring Bristol race, it appeared Busch’s hot start to the season had come to an end. Fast forward 487 laps to a smart decision to stay out under the last caution, and Busch won for the eighth time at Bristol (three wins in the past four Bristol races). (5.7 fppk)

2. Joey Logano ($10,200) – He had the best car in the Bristol spring race. The No. 22 was fast on the bottom and near the wall. Logano was the only driver that legitimately passed the leader on the track. Unfortunately, he lost the race because of a poor decision to pit under the last caution. (4.5 fppk)

3. Kevin Harvick ($12,200)NASCAR rarely hands out death sentence penalties, but it threw the book at Harvick at Bristol. The officials issued a green flag pass through penalty on Lap 1, but Harvick got the last laugh because a Lap 1 wreck bailed him out. Luck aside, Harvick had a fast car and ran 82 fast laps without leading a single lap. (4.2 fppk)

4. Chase Elliott ($9,800) – The worst place to be is leading at Bristol early in the race. Every year, two lappers battling at the back of the field trying to prove who is the least worst of the worst wreck each other and take out the leader. Elliott’s day was ruined by lappers. (4.2 fppk)

5. Martin Truex, Jr. ($11,600) – The traditional stats do not look great. Truex’s average running position was outside of the top 10 and he finished 17th. The fantasy NASCAR stats are not that bad. Truex earned 15 fast lap points. (5.1 fppk)

6. Denny Hamlin ($10,700) – Bristol is a high-banked half-mile track. This puts a heavy load on the cars. This year the load has increased exponentially with the high-downforce package. The heavy load and generic pit guns will result in loose wheels. According to Hamlin, that’s what ruined his race along with 12 other drivers. (4.8 fppk)

7. Kyle Larson ($9,200) – He always looks slow on the final practice stat sheet because he always tests the high line near the wall. In the spring race, it was different. He was actually slow. Bristol has been a great track for Larson, but the high-downforce package has made him look like a rookie again. (3.9 fppk)

8. Brad Keselowski ($11,200) – In the first Bristol race, Keselowski earned 26 hog points and had the third best average running position. He blew a golden opportunity last week and he hasn’t had the best of luck lately, but he should have fast car at Bristol. (4.3 fppk)

9. Kurt Busch ($9,500) – Early is the season, Kurt Busch struggled in qualifying every week, and Bristol was no different. Kurt Busch started outside the top 20 and that made the fall 2018 Bristol winner chalk. (4.2 fppk)

10. Erik Jones ($8,900) – His lackluster performance at Michigan easily can be dismissed. Michigan might be the least relevant track in NASCAR. Jones has been up and down at Bristol. He has two top-fives and two finishes outside the top 20. (4.3 fppk)

11. Daniel Suarez ($7,200) – Penalties at Bristol are draconian. NASCAR in its infinite wisdom does not adjust penalties for differing tracks. A pass through penalty at Watkins Glen is a slap on the wrist, but at Bristol it’s the guillotine. Thanks to perfectly timed cautions, Suarez survived the guillotine and ended up in the optimal lineup. (4.2 fppk)

12. Clint Bowyer ($8,200) – This is more than a fair price for a driver that earned 22 hog points in the first Bristol race. Bowyer was a top-10 driver in practice, qualifying and the race. Hopefully Bowyer’s bad luck that began in the first Michigan race ended with his wreck in the second Michigan race. (2.9 fppk)

13. Chris Buescher ($7,400) – Late in the first Bristol race, Buescher was running inside the top 10, but a loose wheel ruined his race. There will be many loose wheel victims this week. The high-downforce package and underpowered NASCAR-issued pit guns will ruin many fantasy NASCAR lineups. (4.6 fppk)

14. Ryan Blaney ($8,600) – He led in the spring 2018 Bristol race but was taken out by lappers. This is a theme at Bristol. The best drivers are not impervious to the disrespectful habits of nobodies. In 2019, he avoided the plebes and led 158 laps before being passed by a strong No. 22 car. (4.0 fppk)

15. Aric Almirola ($7,800) – This season has not been terrible for Almirola. He typically finishes inside the top 15, but he never contends for top-five finishes. He’s cheap enough that he’ll be in play, but it’s hard to get excited about a driver that wrecked on Lap 1 at Bristol in the spring. (3.7 fppk)

16. Alex Bowman ($8,400) – Dover is the closest comparison to Bristol. At Dover, Bowman drove from last place to second. He earned 20 hog points in the Dover race. Bowman didn’t look great at Bristol, but that was prior to the No. 88 team clicking. (4.6 fppk)

17. Jimmie Johnson ($7,000) – Normally, DFS NASCAR players do not take the bait. This price feels like a trap, but Johnson hasn’t lost his touch at the high-banked concrete ovals. This is the cheapest Johnson has ever been and it’s his best track type. (3.4 fppk)

18. William Byron ($6,800) – He earned two penalties in the past 100 laps. That will ruin anyone’s day, but Byron survived and finished as the last car on the lead lap in 16th. DFS players did not survive his -14 place differential points. (4.4 fppk)

19. Ryan Newman ($8,000) – In the spring, Newman started 11th, ran ninth and finished ninth. It’s nothing spectacular, but it’s pretty good, and pretty good from Newman is spectacular. (5.0 fppk)

20. Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. ($6,600) – Outside of the plate tracks, this is where Stenhouse is a contender. Unfortunately, he got taken out in the Lap 1 wreck in the spring race. This play is not for the faint of heart. Stenhouse is racing for a win and will make some questionable moves throughout the race. (2.8 fppk)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.