2018 NASCAR® Fantasy Driver Rankings: Hollywood Casino 400

Rankings below are based on a mixture of expected output and DraftKings’ NASCAR salaries for that day. The ordering is not based on highest projected fantasy totals, but rather by value of each driver.

(fppk = average fantasy points per $1,000 of salary.)

1. Kevin Harvick ($12,300) – He won the first Kansas race. In the first five intermediate track races, which includes Kansas, Harvick scored over 100 fantasy points four times. In the last seven intermediate track races, he’s only topped 100 fantasy points once. (5.8 fppk)

2. Kyle Larson ($11,500) – The progressive banking at Kansas appeals to Larson’s affinity for running near the wall. In the spring Kansas race, Larson scored the most fantasy points, but that may have been due to an illegal rear window modification. (4.4 fppk)

3. Martin Truex, Jr. ($10,800) – At the last three 1.5 mile races, Truex has scored 80, 122, and 111 fantasy points. This does not include Darlington, but the Lady in Black is its own monster. Two of those massive scores came at tracks with progressive banking like Kansas. (4.6 fppk)

4. Ryan Blaney ($8,700) – Kansas is one of Ryan Blaney’s best tracks. He was a hog (fast laps and laps leader) in the spring 2017 and 2018 Kansas races. In the fall 2017 race, he drove from last to second. His confidence should translate into speed this weekend. (3.9 fppk)

5. Kyle Busch ($11,800) – At the intermediate tracks, Kyle Busch averages the most points per race (72 points). That prodigious stat is skewed by a 200-point performance in the Coca-Cola 600. Take out that score and he ranks below Harvick and Truex. (5.3 fppk)

6. Joey Logano ($8,500) – The story line for Logano this year is that he’s not a race winner, but he’s routinely a top 5 or top 10 car. He has been incredibly consistent over the last three months, and is now a virtual lock to make it to Round 3 of the playoffs. (4.1 fppk)

7. Brad Keselowski ($10,500) – Life comes at you fast. After three straight wins, Keselowski looked like a lock for the championship. In this round of the playoffs, he wrecked at Dover and ran out of gas at Talladega. Keselowski is in desperation mode this weekend. (3.7 fppk)

8. Kurt Busch ($8,900) – Someone’s got to say it, Kurt Busch got screwed last week. Surprisingly, a mature Busch handled his post race interview with grace. If he can continue to harness his inner Buddha, then he should earn a safe top 10 finish this week. (4.6 fppk)

9. Aric Almirola ($8,100) – At Dover, Almirola should have won, but lost because of a late race caution. At Talladega, Almirola should have lost, but won because everyone ran out of fuel and NASCAR’s highly questionable call to ignore a multi-car pile-up on the last lap. (4.8 fppk)

10. Chase Elliott ($9,900) – Dover is a short track and an intermediate track. Elliott’s Dover win should mean that he’s set for another great race at Kansas, but it’s not that easy. A lot of cars wrecked or were penalized at Dover, and Elliott won based on a pit strategy call. (3.8 fppk)

11. Clint Bowyer ($9,600) – Kansas is Clint Bowyer’s hometrack, but he’s never won at Kansas. The reality is that Bowyer has never been great at 1.5 mile tracks. He’s a better short track racer, road racer and plate racer. (4.9 fppk)

12. Erik Jones ($9,300) – Where does Jones rank in terms of average running position at intermediate tracks? He’s 12th. That makes sense. Quickly, name the better drivers in equal equipment. You’ll rank him 12th, too. (3.9 fppk)

13. Denny Hamlin ($9,100) – It’s eerie how similar 2018 Hamlin is to 2017 Matt Kenseth. Does anyone even notice him at the track anymore? One of these weeks, Hamlin will be the overlooked top-tier driver that is a part of a winning GPP lineup. (3.8 fppk)

14. Jamie McMurray ($7,800) – Say what you will about Jamie McMurray, but you know what you’re getting every week. McMurray has been the same play at DraftKings since 2015. Look at McMurray’s average positions at intermediate tracks this year: 19, 21, 14, 9, 17, 13, 13, 15, 10, 17, 14, and 16. (3.1 fppk)

15. Jimmie Johnson ($8,300) – Chad Knaus and Jimmie are splitting up. It’s not because Jimmie doesn’t have it anymore. It’s the car. Everytime a team has sponsorship problems, the dollars vanish along with the wins. Johnson can’t win in an underfunded car; no one in NASCAR can. (3.6 fppk)

16. Ryan Newman ($7,400) – In the last two Kansas races, Newman has crashed twice. Even with those DNFs, Newman’s average running position in thoses races was still inside the top 20. If he avoids the wrecks, he’ll be on the lead lap at the end hoping for the late race restart magic. (3.7 fppk)

17. Austin Dillon ($6,800) – At the beginning of the year, Dillon had a 15th place car at the intermediate tracks. In the middle of the season, he had a 20th place car. Now, he’s back to a 15th place car. When he’s cheap, he’s a play. (3.9 fppk)

18. Alex Bowman ($7,600) – It’s Alex Slowman, not Alex “The Showman” Bowman. Change my mind. If he’s slow, then why pick him? DFS players have to roster 6 drivers and only 12 of the 40 cars are any good. Slowman is due for a break after wrecks in back-to-back weeks. (3.7 fppk)

19. Paul Menard ($7,200) – For years, Menard, Newman, and McMurray were lumped together as a DFS value group. Menard was always the lesser of the three, and he still is, but he’s not that bad. He has an average running position inside the top 20 in 11 of the 12 intermediate track races this season. (3.7 fppk)

14. David Ragan ($5,700) – This is strange, but David Ragan has a top 20 finish in each of the last three Kansas races (13th, 17th, and 17th). It’s not that strange when you consider that the last 12 Kansas races have been filled with cautions. (3.6 fppk)


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above.