UFC Fight Night 87 features a heavyweight matchup between Alistair Overeem and Andrei Arlovski. Below are the studs and value plays for UFC Fight Night 87 to help fill out your DraftKings lineups:
Best Plays on the Card
Alistair Overeem ($10,300) vs. Andrei Arlovski
You can put Overeem in both the stud and value sections. He’s actually a bargain at his $10,300 salary because Overeem is the best play on the card this weekend.
Overeem has won three fights in a row over Stefan Struve, Roy Nelson and Junior Dos Santos. He completely dominated Dos Santos in his last fight, knocking out a fighter with one of the best chins in MMA. Overeem may not be in the elite class of heavyweights at almost 36, but a fourth straight win over Arlovski will put him in the title hunt.
Arlovski had been cruising himself until he ran into Stipe Miocic in January. The 37-year-old was no match for Miocic, getting stopped in the first round. Arlovski was riding a seven-fight win streak and Miocic is one of the top heavyweights in the world, so the loss can be looked at as just a bump in the road.
Overeem has been inconsistent throughout his career and he’s not in the same class as Miocic, but I still see him handling Arlovski in this matchup. Overeem showed impressive patience against Dos Santos. Instead of brawling with a dangerous striker, Overeem kept his distance and waited for an opening. If Overeem employs a similar strategy in this fight, I expect him to catch Arlovski early and win by stoppage.
Nikita Krylov ($10,100) vs. Francimar Barroso
Krylov and Barroso match up pretty evenly on paper, but don’t be fooled; Krylov is clearly the better fighter of the two. Krylov is a former heavyweight. Since moving down to light heavyweight Krylov is 3-1. After losing his debut at 205 to Ovince Saint Preux, Krylov has rattled off three straight victories; all by first round finish.
Krylov is a well-rounded fighter. He lands close to six significant strikes per minute and has an accuracy rate of 65 percent. Krylov is also extremely dangerous once the fight goes to the ground. Twelve of his 19 career wins have come by submission.
The 36-year-old Barroso is 3-1 in the UFC with all of his fights going to a decision. Barroso only lands 2.83 strikes per minute, although he does have power with eight knockouts in 22 career fights. However, Barroso only has one knockout win since 2011, so many of those came earlier in his career when he was facing inferior competition. His power isn’t likely to translate against the bigger Krylov.
I see this matchup as a decent fighter in Barroso taking on a guy in Krylov who is rising at 205. Krylov had a tough draw facing Saint Preux in his first fight at light heavyweight, but since then he’s been dominant. I look for that to continue on Sunday.
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Best Value Plays for the Price
Stefan Struve ($9,900) vs. Antonio Silva
This is an awful fight between guys who have a combined two wins in their last 10 contests. Still, there’s a reason to like one a lot more than the other.
Struve has battled injuries and inconsistency during his once promising career, but Bigfoot is flat-out done. Silva had a brief two-fight win streak where he knocked out Overeem and Travis Browne. He was also suspended for PED. Silva is 1-4-1 over his last six fights. He’s been knocked out in the first round four times during that span. Silva is now 36-years-old. His reflexes and chin are shot.
Struve is one of my least favorite fighters. He rarely uses his strengths to his advantage. He always has some kind of an excuse for his poor performances. He couldn’t finish an ancient Big Nog who had no business being in the Octagon in his final UFC fight. The guy is an enigma, but if Struve just shows up on Sunday he should run right through Bigfoot.
I’m giving Struve one final chance. Bigfoot is a dead man walking. If Struve can’t read him his last rights, Dana White should release him from the UFC instead of Silva.