Happy Friday the 13th! A global holiday for all Jasons out there. Here’s to us! A tremendous 14-game slate is upon us today with plenty of options to choose from. Tons and tons of offense abounds, so let’s get to it! Rankings are based on value projection. Top 5 dollar for dollar plays at each position.
- Salty continues his reign as home run catcher of the year, adding his 7th in 77 at-bats this season. His matchup with RHP Tillman brings his .243 ISO against RHP into play.
- Either Castillo (.197 ISO vs. RHP) or Herrmann (.264 ISO) would be good plays against Jeff Samardzija, as Arizona is forecasted for a 4.1 team total.
- Batting fourth in a lineup forecasted to score 4.9 runs tonight make Lucroy a solid play, especially since the SD SP, Christian Friedrich, is carrying a .409 wOBA against RH bats.
- Pearce against LHP, even one going as good as OAK SP Rich Hill, is a great value at $3K. Pearce has a .252 ISO against LHP this season and has been batting fourth against lefties this season.
- Joey Votto is rocking a .404 wOBA and .206 ISO against RHP and gets Jeremy Hellickson, who has a .353 wOBA against LH bats.
- Jose Abreu has started to pick up the power pace, with a 196/156 expected power/hard hit factor (100 is average) over his last 25 at-bats. Luis Severino has a 1.556 HR/9 IP rate going and a .350 wOBA against RH bats.
- LoFo is a vs. LHP staple at the top of the Rays lineup. Forsythe has a .420 wOBA split against LHP along with.295 ISO, and he should be back in the lineup tonight.
- Neil Walker appears to have cooled, but the metrics say he’s still making hard contact (208 expected power over last 15 at-bats) and is in Coors at a very reasonable salary.
- Coghlan has a .351 wOBA vs. RHP and a .204 ISO along with a 133 expected power rating over the last month.
- For what David Wright has done hitting the ball this season (229 expected power, 249 over last month), I’m surprised he’s not over $5K against Jon Gray, who has allowed .364 wOBA to RH bats.
- Jake Lamb continues to cook with a 41% hard hit rate and 48% fly ball rate over his last 10 games.
- Franco gets Brandon Finnegan, who has the highest home run rate on the slate. Franco has a .283 ISO against LHP this season.
- 3B and OF are thick today, but SS isn’t, so paying up for Machado, with a .253 ISO against RHP this season, along with Story (.308 ISO vs. RHP) may be needed.
- Corey Seager has a tough RHP (Wacha), but he’s been tough himself against RHP, with a .384 wOBA and .212 ISO against righties while batting at the top of the Dodgers lineup.
- Diaz continues to hit, with a .473 wOBA and .310 ISO against RHP and a 41% hard hit rate over his last 10 games.
- Harper owns Tom Koehler, with six home runs in 31 PA against him, going nicely with his .464 wOBA/.335 ISO against RHP overall.
- Sure, you can roster Giancarlo Stanton (.517 wOBA/.596 ISO vs. LHP at 5.3K), but it’ll be sneakier to get Ozuna in there instead against LHP Gonzalez. Ozuna has a stout .427 wOBA/.236 ISO against LHP.
- Conforto has cooled, but still carries a strong .389 wOBA/.271 ISO vs. RHP and in Coors, $4.2K for the #3 hitter with those splits is lock and load material.
- Mazara will be batting second in the “other” projected 10-run game total of the night, the TOR/TEX matchup, and Nomar will bring a .388 wOBA/.263 ISO to the Rogers Centre against R.A. Dickey.
- Domingo Santana will be leading off in MIL and has a .419 wOBA/.247 ISO split against LHP.