Tuesday’s Showdown contests feature a choice between two games: Athletics at Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET) and Reds at Angels (10:07 p.m. ET). This article will focus on the late game.
After playing their most recent series in a National League park without the designated hitter, the Angels return home to the American League, which will allow Shohei Ohtani to return to the starting lineup after coming off the bench in each of Los Angeles’ last three games. For the Reds, Nick Senzel (migraine) returned to the lineup for their most recent game.
Note: All salaries will be Flex prices unless noted as Captain’s Pick prices.
-The Angels have won each of their past six home games against NL Central opponents.
-Nine of the Reds’ past 10 night games against American League opponents have gone UNDER the total runs line.
Los Angeles AngelsLeft-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney ($10,600) is on the mound for the Angels. He has ugly surface stats through five 2019 starts, posting a 5.68 ERA and 5.55 FIP while allowing a ton of home runs, roughly two and half dingers per nine innings. However, some of Heaney’s peripheral statistics are encouraging and may point towards better days ahead in the short term. Heaney has held batters to an expected wOBA of .301 based on the exit velocities and angles of their batted balls, better than the league average of .322, which indicates that Heaney may not be getting whacked around as hard as his ERA suggests. Heaney has also been excellent at generating strikeouts, punching out 30% of the batters he’s faced, better than the league average of 23%. Heaney has also gotten a swing and miss on 14.9% of his pitches, also a big number.
Heaney faces a Reds offense that is getting a park downgrade in Anaheim and ranks as the sixth worst park and league adjusted offense this season, with that number ranking seventh worst against left-handed pitching. Fantasy owners probably shouldn’t be too scared off by Heaney’s ERA on Tuesday.
Angels batters have a matchup vs. RHP Tyler Mahle ($9,400). His 4.17 ERA and 4.15 FIP are both better than average, as is his contact quality derived expected wOBA allowed of .306. Mahle does have substantial platoon splits that fantasy owners can target. He has been far less effective against lefties in his career, with that continuing in 2019, with LHB making significantly better contact quality and posting significantly better outcomes. This makes Angels’ left-handed batters the preferred option, and includes players such as Shohei Ohtani ($9,200), Tommy La Stella ($8,200), Kole Calhoun ($7,800) and potentially Justin Bour ($7,000). RHB Mike Trout ($11,000), of course, is matchup proof, and is always a consideration given his elite skill level.
Cincinnati RedsWhile Mahle ($9,400) has better than average numbers, including his ERA (4.17), FIP (4.15), strikeout rate (25%) and contact quality derived expected wOBA allowed (.306), he draws a tough fantasy assignment against the Angels, who have struck out in just 17% of their plate appearances, the lowest rate in the league, and rank as a top-5 offense by park and league adjusted metrics. The Angels rank similarly against right-handed pitching, posting the lowest strikeout rate vs. RHP while ranking as the seventh best offense by wOBA vs. RHP. Strikeouts could be difficult to come by against a team with such plate discipline, and run prevention could be a challenge against an offense that has been productive.
Like Angels batters, opposite-handed Reds batters are the preferred target against Heaney, who has been hard on left-handed batters by contact quality allowed this season but mediocre against righties; his outcomes against lefties dating back to the start of 2018 have been strong against lefties. Right-handed options in the Reds lineup include Eugenio Suarez ($6,800), Nick Senzel ($9,000), Yasiel Puig ($8,800) and Jose Iglesias ($6,200). Senzel, Puig and Suarez have all made better than average contact quality against left-handed pitchers this season and all three rank strongly by power hitting, each slugging over .500 vs. LHP with strong isolated power marks.
THE OUTCOMEHeaney ($15,900 CP) is an option as Captain’s Pick with a matchup against a below-average offense, and his bat-missing has been strong in his five 2019 starts. The Angels are also the favorites to get the win, another plus for Heaney. On the hitting side, Trout ($16,500 CP) always makes for a high-upside play with his Hall of Fame talent level, and Ohtani ($13,800 CP), La Stella ($12,300 CP) and Calhoun ($11,700 CP) all have better than average power numbers by ISO for the Angels. For the Reds, Senzel ($13,500 CP), Suarez ($10,200 CP), and Puig ($13,200 CP) are the best options given their right-handedness and success vs. lefties this season.
The Angels have the better offense and the pitching matchup is not that dissimilar by contact quality allowed. Fantasy owners can look for the Angels to be in the better position to win this game.
Final score: Angels 5, Reds 4
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